“Energy and physical constraints matter. That's where you go invest right now. That's the scarcity because the faster this thing goes, they cannot back off.”
AI buildout makes energy and materials the scarce winners, so be long the physical side
“Altruist, which is a $1.5 billion valuation company... they took down LPL, Raymond James, Schwab, quarter of a trillion dollars in market cap.”
AI-native custodians collapse the cost of advisor tech and custody, eroding LPL's platform-fee economics.
“I wrote a piece on Palantir. I think that'll get a bounce … you're going to start cannibalizing its own winners.”
Palantir is one of the few software names that survives disruption, so it bounces
“I think the probability of an unwind event that turns into something big is, even if it's only 25%…”
Crowded hedge fund leverage plus AI dispersion sets up an unwind the market badly underprices
“The real threat to SaaS was never demand destruction, it's supply explosion. … the cost of building software approaches zero…”
AI is gutting SaaS via supply explosion not demand, so beaten-down software is a value trap not a bottom
“There will be security issues this year. Be very careful with not owning vol during the course of this year.”
Cyber/security disruption will spike volatility this year, so own vol rather than be caught short it
“I do not believe that … they are not going to win this”
Hyperscalers face a capex trap and competitive erosion, so the Mag 7 underperform from here
“Why are 10-year rates going down at this point? … I continue to believe the deflationary pressures from AI will show up in services…”
AI deflation pulls real yields and inflation down, so 10-year rates keep falling despite hot payrolls
“this is an abundance-scarcity thing. Be long scarcity, be short abundance. And that means that the Black Widow, IWM versus QQQ”
Rotate out of abundance (tech/software) into scarcity (energy, materials), so be long small caps vs Nasdaq
“3 years from now, I know that semiconductors are going to be needed. I have no idea which software companies are going to be needed.”
Semis are scarcity (needed in 3 years) while software is disposable, so be long semis vs software
“why do people need Microsoft and need to pay the money for Copilot when they can just use ChatGPT, Gemini, and all these? … the Chinese models, which are free”
Microsoft is a waterfall chart with eroding Copilot value, so it keeps underperforming the S&P
“You can't get the revenue without the capacity. The capacity is not there. … you want to be underweight all of the hyperscalers…”
Hyperscalers face an RPO-vs-capacity trap, short the 4 big names as a funding cost against scarcity longs
“with increasing CapEx, we have less buybacks. At the same point, you have more supply coming in.”
Short growth versus value as IPO supply from SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic drains the growth bucket
“Nvidia, I don't know what to do with it. It's still cheap. I do think that there's going to be an issue with the compute side going forward.”
Nvidia still cheap and best Mag 7 spot outside Tesla despite compute-side risk
“Here is the Mag 7 relative to it. The reason I keep showing this, I still believe Tesla is going to be the best performer out of the Mag 7.”
Tesla will be the best performer in the Mag 7
“with Apple, the fact that they haven't spent the money, they haven't gone through, they don't have the same issues…”
Rather be long Apple than short it, memory supply lock-in offsets multiple compression
“HYG to IEF is my liquid version of this … It's trending lower at the same time that I'm getting turbulent shocks, which means we're getting some contagion.”
Credit is weakening into contagion, leveraged loans below 100-day and HYG/IEF trending lower
“financials joined the party this week. That is the risk that goes with credit. Financials had a very bad week, and it's been insurance brokers…”
AI fee-compression and credit stress hit insurance brokers; Aon's broker plus wealth mix sits in the crosshairs.
“an embedded put against what I'm saying is to be long foreign stocks ex the US … This is what you want to be long and is accelerating.”
Be long foreign stocks ex-US as a deleveraging-driven Fed cut weakens the dollar and triggers repatriation
“the sweet spot is when you have a rising CRB Raw Industrials Index coupled with a falling or … stabilizing at low level Selic rate”
Long Brazil EWZ as Selic rate cuts begin and rising raw industrials feed a scarcity boom
“It was unchanged from the middle of '24 to early '26, almost 2 years, and now it's starting to break out.”
Eaton breaking out of a two-year base, shows up on every AI infrastructure beneficiary screen
“CVX. Whoa, Chevron. I got told by so many people this was not a good place to be because it doesn't participate. We're about to break out again.”
Chevron about to break out from a decade of dead money as scarcity rotation rewards energy
“The Corning and Meta deal is what triggered the research... how the Metting-Corning deal signals the beginning of a multi-decade broadening cycle in AI…”
Boring chemicals are the next leg of the AI infrastructure materials cycle, Celanese raising prices
“If we have another waterfall leg, like I said, and this becomes a deleveraging event, Bitcoin will absolutely head down to $40,000 with everything else with…”
Bitcoin falls to 40k in a deleveraging event then recovers as the real enterprise-winner store of value