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XLE

XLE

30 tracked calls · 29 long · 1 short · last 90d: 16L/1S
first called by Dwarkesh Podcast 11mo ago
XLEXLELONG5d ago
“Now, where I think that there's still a lot more upside is with the energy equities... if you look at energy since over the last 5 years is tied with technology for the highest returns of any sector.”
Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®

The market completely ignores the worst physical oil shortage in history, so buy neglected energy stocks while 90% of industry capex just maintains output.

XLEXLELONG@ $58.80
$60.51+2.91%
since call Jul 26
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XLEXLELONG6d ago
“they're going to be forced to really focus on natural gas, which is why we continue to hold pipelines within our portfolio just for that ridge... that pipeline centric delivery is going to be a requir”
Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®

Data centers will devour 6.1 Bcf/d in new natural gas demand by 2030 because grids cannot support them, making pipeline infrastructure a must-own asset.

XLEXLELONG@ $60.51
$60.51-0.00%
since call Jul 25
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XLEXLELONG1w ago
“taking them down and I'm shoving them into uh you know the the next stage the next stage which I think you know biotech energy”
1000x

Investors are harvesting AI memory profits and shoving them directly into energy assets as data centers prepare to devour 20% of the nation's electricity.

XLEXLELONG@ $58.54
$60.51+3.37%
since call Jul 22
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XLEXLELONG3w ago
“you're buying these these hyperscalers that pay, you know, they have 0% free cash flow versus these these oil majors at 15.5.”
Wealthion

Oil majors pump out massive 15.5% free cash flow yields while tech hyperscalers burn cash, making energy the ultimate hard asset dividend play.

XLEXLELONG@ $54.30
$60.51+11.44%
since call Jul 9
peak +11.4%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG3w ago
“energy is a share of the S&P. It runs around 3%. And by the way, the core of the super cycle argument is that that share needs to be closer to 10 to 15 and you got to take it out of the all of that AI”
Wealthion

Energy's share of the S&P 500 must quintuple from 3% to 10-15% as capital rotates out of AI into the hard asset supercycle.

XLEXLELONG@ $56.73
$60.51+6.67%
since call Jul 9
peak +8.4%
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XLEXLELONG4w ago
“depending on where you think with the oil price goes, I think it could go higher still. Um, that that's a little bit of a cushion or a something in your back pocket that energy could surprise positive”
Monetary Matters · The Monetary Matters Network

The energy sector is poised to surprise positively in 2027 as oil prices push higher than current conservative forecasts imply.

XLEXLELONG@ $52.25
$60.51+15.82%
since call Jul 2
peak +15.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG4w ago
“I've been a long-term energy bull in part related to this whole AI related capex boom which requires a lot of energy to power it... I would probably do a combination of the two.”
Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®

Artificial intelligence spending is driving massive power demand just as oil prices surge past November, forcing a trillion dollars into hard assets.

XLEXLELONG@ $54.14
$60.51+11.76%
since call Jun 30
peak +13.7%
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XLEXLELONG4w ago
“Staples, Energy, and Real Estate were net bought”
Negligible Capital

Energy is one of only 3 sectors hedge funds net bought during a historic selling wave, signaling relative strength.

XLEXLELONG@ $54.83
$60.51+10.36%
since call Jun 28
peak +12.0%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
XLEXLELONG4w ago
“The new portfolio... what you now need is 60 equity, 20% energy, 20% metals.”
Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®

Buying energy producers shields your portfolio from the 1 of 4 economic scenarios where spiking oil prices trigger a devastating inflationary bust.

XLEXLELONG@ $53.50
$60.51+13.11%
since call Jun 28
peak +13.1%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONGPOSITION1mo ago
“I really like the stocks … I'm buying a cheap asset that I think is going to be bid much better.”
Thoughtful Money · Kevin Muir

Energy stocks are dirt cheap, pay dividends, and rally when AI semis correct

XLEXLELONG@ $53.13
$60.51+13.90%
since call Jun 25
peak +13.9%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG1mo ago
“even assuming that you have a price decline from the triple-digit level back to $60, that price decline is temporary … the cumulative impact of deferred…”
Thoughtful Money · Rick Rule

Oil underinvestment of $1B+/day means any drop from triple digits is temporary, structurally higher prices ahead

XLEXLELONG@ $52.84
$60.51+14.51%
since call Jun 21
peak +14.5%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG1mo ago
“+$200 billion added by the energy sector”
The Kobeissi Letter

Energy is the only non-AI S&P sector with positive YTD market cap gains, a rare bright spot as every other sector bleeds $1T.

XLEXLELONG@ $55.01
$60.51+10.00%
since call Jun 20
peak +11.2%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
XLEXLESHORT1mo ago
“BREAKING: US oil prices drop below $74/barrel for the first time since March 5th after the US and Iran officially sign the "Memorandum of Understanding."”
The Kobeissi Letter

WTI crude collapsing below $74 squeezes revenue for US oil producers, pulling the energy sector ETF lower

XLEXLESHORT@ $53.62
$60.51-12.85%
since call Jun 18
Trade on Hyperliquid →
XLEXLELONG2mo ago
“I would be putting on oil into weakness here. Oil stocks, I'd be adding into weakness as a hedge and as some place to put money against the potential of this…”
Jordi Visser

Oil stocks are cheap and a hedge; buy into weakness as Strait risk and shortages push oil higher

XLEXLELONG@ $56.34
$60.51+7.40%
since call May 31
peak +7.4%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONGPOSITION2mo ago
“as a longer-term play, I think if we're running our reserves down and putting ourselves as a country in a more vulnerable position long-term…”
Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson

Long energy: higher WTI turns US oil and gas into cash printers buying back stock, and a premium stays in oil

XLEXLELONG@ $58.78
$60.51+2.95%
since call May 21
peak +2.9%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONGPOSITION2mo ago
“I've been long energy. I didn't rush to buy energy because of this crisis, but I've already been long energy and energy pipelines and things like that.”
We Study Billionaires · Lyn Alden

Long energy and pipelines as energy-driven inflation persists in a fragmented monetary world

XLEXLELONG@ $58.32
$60.51+3.77%
since call May 16
peak +3.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONGPOSITION2mo ago
“Dude, I'm so long XLE right now.”
Forward Guidance · Felix Jauvin

Long oil and gas producers as energy inflation surges and XLE outperforms risk-adjusted

XLEXLELONG@ $57.36
$60.51+5.50%
since call May 15
peak +5.5%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG3mo ago
“The oil shock that dwarfs history won't have a rapid recovery. … The demand has not been impacted.”
Jordi Visser

A historically large oil shock with no fast recovery keeps crude elevated, repricing US energy producers higher.

XLEXLELONG@ $56.17
$60.51+7.74%
since call Apr 26
peak +7.7%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG3mo ago
“every pension's underweight non-ESG stuff … that's why there's still alpha”
Forward Guidance · Felix Jauvin

Non-ESG energy stocks rerate higher as pensions flip from underweight to buying

XLEXLELONG@ $58.03
$60.51+4.28%
since call Apr 24
peak +5.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG3mo ago
“all the ducks seem to be lining up in a row here to say that we are in this speculation phase. You're getting stronger economies.”
Forward Guidance · Michael Howell

Cyclical value, resources and energy stocks outperform in the late-cycle speculation phase

XLEXLELONG@ $55.47
$60.51+9.08%
since call Apr 22
peak +9.1%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG4mo ago
“Access to reliable baseload power is emerging as a key challenge … Chevron and Engine No. 1 partnership expects to address, given its extensive natural gas…”
TBPN

Data centers turn into the new structural buyer of US gas, and Big Oil plus pipelines monetize the power buildout.

XLEXLELONG@ $57.54
$60.51+5.16%
since call Apr 1
peak +5.2%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG4mo ago
“I think a lot of the bull market names on energy and power and materials and all of that stuff are there … the market is starting to discount things.”
Jordi Visser

Energy, power and materials names remain in a bull market as the market starts discounting recession fears

XLEXLELONG@ $62.43
$60.51-3.08%
since call Mar 29
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG4mo ago
“Luckily, I was heavier in nat gas, oil equities, and the agriculture commodities, which I'm really bullish on.”
Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson

Long oil equities as a physical supply shock from Hormuz keeps energy prices elevated

XLEXLELONG@ $58.72
$60.51+3.06%
since call Mar 13
peak +4.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG4mo ago
“Energy is $2.4 trillion, and materials is $1.5 trillion. The combination of these two should be bigger than this by the time this is done … we're in a…”
Jordi Visser

Energy and materials should out-cap software in a commodity supercycle, mean-reversion trade

XLEXLELONG@ $57.17
$60.51+5.84%
since call Mar 8
peak +6.6%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONGPOSITION5mo ago
“it's Apple, it's XLE, it's URA. Obviously I've been still bullish on gold.”
1000x · Jonah Van Bourg

Long energy via XLE as part of the post-AI-disruption positioning basket

XLEXLELONG@ $54.59
$60.51+10.85%
since call Feb 24
peak +10.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG5mo ago
“Energy and physical constraints matter. That's where you go invest right now. That's the scarcity because the faster this thing goes, they cannot back off.”
Jordi Visser

AI buildout makes energy and materials the scarce winners, so be long the physical side

XLEXLELONG@ $53.22
$60.51+13.71%
since call Feb 15
peak +13.7%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG5mo ago
“Energy, 3.3%. Materials, 2%. You come back in 5 years, these numbers are going to be significantly higher.”
Jordi Visser

Energy and materials' tiny S&P weight surges over five years as money rotates into commodities.

XLEXLELONG@ $52.73
$60.51+14.76%
since call Feb 8
peak +14.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG6mo ago
“I do think you're going to see energy prices move higher at a time when everyone is bearish on them. … I'd rather be in the energy trade for this year.”
Jordi Visser

Energy is the trade of the year as power scarcity drives prices higher while everyone is bearish

XLEXLELONG@ $51.44
$60.51+17.64%
since call Feb 1
peak +18.1%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG6mo ago
“materials and energy will be the two best performing stocks this year … Energy, materials, 5%. No-brainer. Get your money in these things.”
Jordi Visser

Energy and materials will be the two best performing sectors this year, deeply underweighted

XLEXLELONG@ $50.04
$60.51+20.94%
since call Jan 25
peak +22.5%
Trade on Robinhood →
XLEXLELONG11mo ago
“in the long run, it might make more sense to think of the size of our economy or the size of our civilization as the raw energy use that we do rather than GDP.”
Dwarkesh Podcast

If energy throughput becomes the real measure of AI-era economic scale, energy producers re-rate as the binding input.

XLEXLELONG@ $43.48
$60.51+39.17%
since call Aug 15
peak +40.9%
Trade on Robinhood →