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MET

META

91 tracked calls · 56 long · 35 short · last 90d: 41L/27S
first called by Invest Like the Best 1y ago
IN TRACKED PORTFOLIOS
Ray DalioBUYDan CrenshawMIXEDDavid TepperSELLMichael BurrySELL CALLSBill AckmanHOLD
METMETASHORT2d ago
“he's probably top three largest customers of Anthropic, right? Right. So he's the one fueling all of this... To me, that is a very telling fact when you think about who are the largest customers, the ”
TBPN

Meta is burning cash on AI with employees wasting 60 trillion tokens while the company is forced to rely on Anthropic to stay relevant.

METMETASHORT@ $580.71
$562.08+3.21%
since call Jul 29
peak +9.6%
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METMETASHORT2d ago
“Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon since they all reported curiously on the same day back April 29th and their stock prices just fell throughout the course of the quarter after raising capital spendi”
Wealthion

Meta is burning 90% of its cash flow on capital spending, hitting a historic ceiling that chokes future growth and drags down the stock.

METMETASHORT@ $594.25
$562.08+5.41%
since call Jul 29
peak +9.6%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT2d ago
“To fund this capex, the hyperscalers are issuing more debt than ever by wide margin. This debt needs to be absorbed amongst tighter financial conditions... Meta and Microsoft are down 10% and 20% resp”
ThreadGuy

Rising interest rates are crushing Meta as the market punishes the company for burning up to $145B on massive AI infrastructure buildouts.

METMETASHORT@ $597.65
$562.08+5.95%
since call Jul 29
peak +10.3%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG3d agoFLIPPED
“Reuters came out, I think, with an article saying that they're actually going to raise CapEx dramatically this year and next year. So all that kind of fear that that quote about authentic AI from the ”
TBPN

Meta is shattering the media's pullback narrative by aggressively hiking its 2026 CapEx guidance to $125B-$145B to dominate the frontier AI model race.

METMETALONG@ $593.87
EXIT$585.61-1.39%
since call Jul 28
peak +0.6%
flipped Jul 29 · held 1d · record frozen at -1.39%
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METMETASHORT3d ago
“I just looked up the MAG 7 performance... investor fatigue setting in with the whole tech thing. There's an understanding that these companies are moving from being cash flow positive... to being gene”
The Master Investor Podcast

Meta is torching its cash-flow positive model by doubling its 2026 CapEx to $145B for AI, with zero proof this massive spending will ever turn a profit.

METMETASHORT@ $580.69
$562.08+3.21%
since call Jul 28
peak +10.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG5d ago
“Meta can't use it. They don't have the cloud yet, so they're willing to sell it out to people because other people can't fill it... If they can't use the compute for the next six months, why wouldn't ”
Jordi Visser

Meta is printing massive margins by leasing out its excess compute capacity in a $10 billion deal while it finishes building its own cloud infrastructure.

METMETALONG@ $597.61
$562.08-5.95%
since call Jul 26
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METMETASHORT1w ago
“If the United States government intervenes it will tank the stock market. Period. Not debatable... you're forced to absorb costs that aren't rational nor market driven.”
All-In Podcast

A US ban on open-source AI obliterates the hundreds of millions of dollars Meta poured into its Llama foundation models.

METMETASHORT@ $606.46
$562.08+7.32%
since call Jul 24
peak +11.1%
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METMETASHORT1w ago
“I definitely know the one thing I don't want to do is buy the companies that the Mag7s that have been, you know, building and building and building these AI data centers. And the other thing is I happ”
Wealthion

Meta is burning up to $145 billion to build AI data centers that will trigger a massive overcapacity glut and crush the stock.

METMETASHORT@ $604.21
$562.08+6.97%
since call Jul 24
peak +11.1%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1w ago
“I think there's like a pretty clear rotation happening. Which is hyperscalers, capex spenders are down... And then if you're spending it, you're bad... Meta, you're bad.”
ThreadGuy

The market is punishing hyperscalers burning cash on AI buildouts, so dump Meta as it torches up to $145 billion on infrastructure with no clear payoff.

METMETASHORT@ $596.79
$562.08+5.82%
since call Jul 23
peak +12.4%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1w ago
“ultimately that money will flow through to assets like Micron to assets like MSFT META Meta um it'll flow through to all the the hyperscalers Google um this is an investable thesis”
1000x

Paid AI subscriptions will explode from 2.2% to 50% of households, funneling massive token consumption revenue directly into Meta.

METMETALONG@ $604.09
$562.08-6.95%
since call Jul 22
peak +0.5%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1w ago
“The hyperscalers... debt to equity on these companies is next to nothing. And the combined RPOS, contractual orders that they already have where the reason they can't fill them is because they don't h”
Jordi Visser

Meta boasts near-zero debt to equity and is stockpiling compute to fill massive contractual orders over the next four years of insatiable demand.

METMETALONG@ $638.01
$562.08-11.90%
since call Jul 19
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METMETASHORT2w ago
“Meg 7, the hyperscalers. They've been the laggards. And they're shelling out cash flow, they're levering up, their cost of capital cost of financing is rising... You're reaching an upper bound of how ”
Forward Guidance

Tech giants are hitting a wall on AI buildouts as borrowing costs surge, forcing Meta to stomach yields over 7% on its new $12 billion data center bond.

METMETASHORT@ $643.50
$562.08+12.65%
since call Jul 17
peak +18.1%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG2w ago
“They wrote a positive piece on meta. Uh I'm getting more interested in this consumer agent thing and the upside potential.”
Jordi Visser

Meta is cracking the consumer AI interface to make agents disappear into daily life, a shift that will explode token consumption by a staggering 24 times.

METMETALONG@ $657.15
$562.08-14.47%
since call Jul 12
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METMETALONG3w agoFLIPPED
“We believe Meta is the only hyperscaler slash Neolab on track to be world at all three and therefore has the best chance of catching up with Anthropics slash OpenAI”
TBPN

Meta just restructured 3,000 engineers to generate high-quality training data internally, securing the final missing link to rival OpenAI in the AI race.

METMETALONG@ $669.21
EXIT$585.61-12.49%
since call Jul 10
peak +2.2%
flipped Jul 29 · held 19d · record frozen at -12.49%
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METMETALONG3w ago
“That article traces past Meta mistakes as well as those of investors who doubted the company, all to frame current investments in AI and the massive opportunities that remain central to the Meta s fut”
Stratechery

Meta is pouring up to $145 billion into AI infrastructure to secure its future and crush the investors who doubted Mark Zuckerberg's vision.

METMETALONG@ $683.86
$562.08-17.81%
since call Jul 10
peak +2.1%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG3w agoFLIPPED
“And if you ask advertisers what is the bottleneck to spending more on meta, they will almost always say it's great creative. And so there's a path to sort of just unlocking and removing that bottlenec”
TBPN

Meta's proprietary image model trained on its unique conversion data removes the creative bottleneck for advertisers, unlocking massive ad spend.

METMETALONG@ $631.48
EXIT$585.61-7.26%
since call Jul 9
peak +8.3%
flipped Jul 29 · held 20d · record frozen at -7.26%
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METMETALONG3w agoFLIPPED
“This has got to be GPU intensive if they actually roll this out to everyone... what did they buy all the GPUs for? You've got to get people generating stuff. I completely agree. I think put this in th”
TBPN

Meta's Muse Image model will drive massive user engagement and validate its heavy GPU investments.

METMETALONG@ $615.58
EXIT$585.61-4.87%
since call Jul 7
peak +11.1%
flipped Jul 29 · held 22d · record frozen at -4.87%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG3w ago
“AI makes every pixel monetizable, which means we are looking at the largest inventory expansion ever. Yes, it will take a few years to realize this opportunity, but the technology is there.”
Stratechery

Meta is on the verge of a massive step-change in growth as AI makes every pixel monetizable and dramatically expands ad inventory.

METMETALONG@ $588.19
$562.08-4.44%
since call Jul 7
peak +13.9%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG3w ago
“Again, this is Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and and Google. Uh it's multiple compression. Their earnings are growing... I still like them as the funding side for this”
Jordi Visser

Meta's earnings continue to grow through multiple compression, making it a resilient funding-side holding for the AI buildout.

METMETALONG@ $580.46
$562.08-3.17%
since call Jul 5
peak +17.3%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG4w ago
““Profit generating provider” is a good cash cow for Meta after all that coin they have spent in building out compute. Some will even argue its high time all those investments translate into revenue.”
Semi Doped

Meta is flipping its massive AI investments into a cash cow by selling excess bare-metal GPUs, a move that already drove the stock up 9 percent.

METMETALONG@ $594.34
$562.08-5.43%
since call Jul 3
peak +17.3%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT4w ago
“I think the Mag Seven are are are sort of in the hurt locker for a while... if the AI trade starts to unwind a lot these hyperscalers 30% of their income earlier this year is from the markup of the AI”
Forward Guidance

Sell Meta on bounces because an unwinding AI trade threatens the 30% of hyperscaler income derived from marking up private AI lab valuations.

METMETASHORT@ $594.38
$562.08+5.44%
since call Jul 3
peak +9.2%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG4w ago
“I think they're partly considering that um this is the new iPhone, right? That this is the new interface will be the glasses that the phone that the glasses can be like the smart AI involved in your l”
Monetary Matters · The Monetary Matters Network

Meta's massive AI investments will pay off as its smart glasses become the new iPhone and supersede the smartphone interface.

METMETALONG@ $579.29
$562.08-2.97%
since call Jul 2
peak +16.3%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG4w ago
“In reality, it is a pathway for Meta to be more profitable going forward, in spite of all their capital investments.”
Semi Doped

Meta's new cloud business turns its massive AI capital expenditures into a direct revenue stream by selling excess compute.

METMETALONG@ $619.65
$562.08-9.29%
since call Jul 2
peak +11.6%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG4w agoFLIPPED
“maybe there this idea that they can recoup tons of their CapEx spend because they have all this compute and it's really valuable and they can sell it... makes Meta's fundamentals on top of their alrea”
ThreadGuy

Meta is aggressively clawing back its massive capital expenditures by pivoting to sell off its excess AI compute.

METMETALONG@ $612.91
EXIT$604.09-1.44%
since call Jul 1
peak +11.6%
flipped Jul 23 · held 22d · record frozen at -1.44%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT4w ago
“employment in AI related... has been declining... normally if you're investing in capex in AI you would expect to see a like increase in the employment.”
Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®

Tech giants are burning through all their free cash flow to fund AI projects while simultaneously shedding jobs as their order books dry up.

METMETASHORT@ $625.46
$562.08+10.13%
since call Jun 30
peak +14.5%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG4w agoFLIPPED
“So in my view, this CapEx spending gives meta massive leverage. Compute is as good as cash in this market as there is virtually infinite demand for any compute right now. Meta could tomorrow decide to”
ThreadGuy

Meta is hoarding massive AI compute capacity which acts as a hidden floor because they can simply rent the servers to other labs if needed.

METMETALONG@ $556.48
EXIT$604.09+8.56%
since call Jun 29
peak +22.9%
flipped Jul 23 · held 24d · record frozen at +8.56%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT4w ago
“In its current shape, not great. It looks more like a short... This is not made a new high in months... When you start to see it flatten out and roll over, that's usually a tell of a vast something's ”
The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman

The stock stalls out for months without hitting new highs while its 200-day moving average flattens and rolls downward, signaling a broken trend.

METMETASHORT@ $568.07
$562.08+1.05%
since call Jun 29
peak +5.9%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG4w ago
“I think the biggest under-appreciated aspect in Meta are their enterprise tools. Meta just announced they're selling subscriptions... Meta has a line of sight to billions of dollars of additional reve”
Yet Another Value Podcast

The podcast actually focuses on Roku, offering zero evidence for the claim that Meta's enterprise tools will unlock billions as ad impressions surge.

METMETALONG@ $548.86
$562.08+2.41%
since call Jun 28
peak +21.5%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT4w agoFLIPPED
“When the mega caps are going down to me, this is a representation of what I've shown many many weeks, which is I call it the benchmark arbitrage.”
Jordi Visser

Investors are dumping high-multiple mega-caps like Meta in a benchmark arbitrage rotation, driving hyperscalers down 14% as money flows to cheaper AI picks.

METMETASHORT@ $550.25
EXIT$582.90-5.93%
since call Jun 28
flipped Jul 5 · held 7d · record frozen at -5.93%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT4w ago
“Google told Meta around March that it could not provide all of the Gemini capacity the company wanted to purchase”
RJCcapital

Meta's AI roadmap is disrupted and delayed after Google rationed Gemini compute, exposing a critical external dependency

METMETASHORT@ $543.16
$562.08-3.48%
since call Jun 28
peak +3.8%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETALONG4w ago
“Threads is probably more exciting to the core business and to the financial outcomes.”
TBPN · John Coogan

Meta gets near zero credit for owning 80% of smart glasses, but the upside is the high-margin ads and Threads engine, not hardware

METMETALONG@ $544.93
$562.08+3.15%
since call Jun 27
peak +24.3%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT4w ago
“this would be an absolutely incredible come-from-behind story … the market is saying like, no, they're not pricing it in”
TBPN · Jordi Hays

Meta sentiment is near all-time lows in capital markets, with the market not pricing in any AI come-from-behind

METMETASHORT@ $544.93
$562.08-3.15%
since call Jun 27
peak +3.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“BREAKING: Apple's Vision Pro and Smart Glasses chief is leaving for OpenAI's hardware division, the latest blow to Apple's efforts in the space.”
RJCcapital

Apple's smart glasses pushed to late 2027 and its top hardware VP gone to OpenAI hands Meta Ray-Bans an extended runway as the dominant AI wearable, with no real competitor until 2028.

METMETALONG@ $556.40
$562.08+1.02%
since call Jun 26
peak +24.3%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETASHORT1mo ago
“The whole hyperscaler complex is being rerated from a multiple basis because they are moving from cash flow rich dividend buyback rich financial profiles to leverage leverage balance sheets with no ca”
Forward Guidance

Hyperscalers are sliding 3% a day as they burn cash on an unwinnable AI race, forcing a massive valuation downgrade that caps Meta's upside.

METMETASHORT@ $548.67
$562.08-2.44%
since call Jun 26
peak +3.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo ago
“OpenAI's Technical Lead for Compute has returned to OpenAI after joining Meta in April 2026.”
SemiAnalysis

Meta's AI leadership exodus signals org dysfunction that could derail its $115B+ compute build and weigh on the stock.

METMETASHORT@ $540.03
$562.08-4.08%
since call Jun 26
peak +3.8%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETASHORT1mo ago
“The hyperscalers, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, Google, and Microsoft were all down on Thursday... the new capital intensity of the hyperscalers combined with the lack of moes has destroyed the momentum in th”
The Real Eisman Playbook

Short Meta: the company is pouring capital into LLMs and agentic AI apps without any product differentiation, making its massive AI spend a race to the bottom.

METMETASHORT@ $540.49
$562.08-3.99%
since call Jun 26
peak +3.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo ago
“anyone that is basically committing to multi-year AI CapEx is their stock price is going lower”
ThreadGuy

Hyperscalers committing multi-year AI CapEx see stocks punished; abstainers outperform

METMETASHORT@ $560.01
$562.08-0.37%
since call Jun 25
peak +3.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo agoFLIPPED
“shorting what the hyperscalers are selling, which is their stock... Google, Microsoft, Meta, they're not buying Micron's stock.”
1000x

With 13-year-olds buying hyperscalers and peers doing $80B equity raises for AI CapEx, the mega-cap AI trade has reached retail saturation and is cracking.

METMETASHORT@ $542.87
EXIT$606.10-11.65%
since call Jun 24
flipped Jul 22 · held 28d · record frozen at -11.65%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“Meta Glasses just brutally framemogged Snap Specs”
RJCcapital

Meta Glasses dominate Snap Specs on price, design, and AI — Meta wins the consumer smart glasses market

METMETALONG@ $559.38
$562.08+0.48%
since call Jun 24
peak +21.7%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“Wow, Meta is apparently entering the prediction market business now…”
Jukan

Meta's prediction market app + 50-app expansion signals new engagement and revenue vectors, bullish for META

METMETALONG@ $552.23
$562.08+1.78%
since call Jun 24
peak +21.5%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETASHORT1mo agoFLIPPED
“Unbelievable, top-tier, world-class, irrefutable ideas, really bad execution, just subpar execution on these ideas.”
ThreadGuy

Meta has world-class ideas but botches execution every time, a serial missed-opportunity story

METMETASHORT@ $562.47
EXIT—
since call Jun 23
flipped Jun 29 · held 6d · record frozen
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo ago
“META IS PAUSING AN INTERNAL AI TRAINING PROGRAM AFTER SENSITIVE DATA WAS ACCESSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE COMPANY: BIZ INSIDER”
tradfi news

Meta's internal AI training program paused after company-wide data exposure, flagging AI governance risk that could weigh on the stock.

METMETASHORT@ $551.15
$562.08-1.98%
since call Jun 22
peak +6.1%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“$META love that they are trying to become basically YouTube now”
SuspendedCap

Meta's YouTube-style video pivot expands its creator ecosystem and ad inventory, lifting revenue per user.

METMETALONG@ $573.28
$562.08-1.95%
since call Jun 22
peak +21.8%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“So, my base case is based on these. They're able to recover their FCF margin. And also the growth stabilizes without any re-rating of the price to earnings, I see a 46% upside from here.”
We Study Billionaires

Long Meta: despite market fears over a $135 billion AI capex buildout, the company's massive ad revenue, strong distribution, and disciplined cost management point to a 46% upside without needing multiple expansion.

METMETALONG@ $579.31
$562.08-2.98%
since call Jun 21
peak +18.5%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo agoFLIPPED
“I don't even know how Meta is alive in this point at with this... Meta's new AI unit is a total mess. Executives and employees alike are struggling with the chaotic AI strategy.”
Jordi Visser

Meta squandered its open-source AI lead as its new AI unit devolves into a chaotic, low-morale mess that drives away top engineering talent.

METMETASHORT@ $577.22
EXIT$582.90-0.98%
since call Jun 21
flipped Jul 5 · held 15d · record frozen at -0.98%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo agoFLIPPED
“what they're selling is their equity and what they're buying are semiconductors.”
1000x

Meta and its peers are dumping 100 billion in equity to fund massive data centers, so sell the stock and buy the chips they are forced to purchase instead.

METMETASHORT@ $577.22
EXIT$606.10-5.00%
since call Jun 19
flipped Jul 22 · held 33d · record frozen at -5.00%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“I'm pretty sure this is the largest coding training data generation effort in the world rn”
Zephyr

Meta is running the world's largest coding AI training pipeline; this compute and talent bet is a long-term moat for META.

METMETALONG@ $577.79
$562.08-2.72%
since call Jun 19
peak +18.4%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“Meta has contracted ~1.6 GW of AI capacity from Crusoe across two sites (Childress TX, Warrenton MO)”
Shanu Mathew

Meta's 1.6 GW AI data center contract signals accelerating compute buildout, expanding the moat for its AI ambitions

METMETALONG@ $572.65
$562.08-1.85%
since call Jun 18
peak +18.4%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo agoFLIPPED
“Over 65, I think that would ruffle some feathers. That would probably be pushed back on more by the social media companies because the purchasing power from…”
TBPN · John Coogan

Banning social media for over-65s would devastate Meta given boomer purchasing power

METMETASHORT@ $600.21
EXIT—
since call Jun 17
flipped Jun 27 · held 10d · record frozen
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“We love ads. … I'm pretty confident that we'll be able to get Threads ads into a really good place there.”
TBPN

Threads turns from a growth story into a high-margin ad engine, adding incremental revenue to Meta's core.

METMETALONG@ $613.70
$562.08-8.41%
since call Jun 16
peak +13.9%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“the bull case is it's potentially the greatest business in history … that is not threatened by AI”
TBPN

Meta is the greatest business in history, untouched and actually accelerated by AI, deserving a re-rating

METMETALONG@ $601.74
$562.08-6.59%
since call Jun 16
peak +15.2%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“Meta's EV to net P/E multiple is in an interesting place … it just suggests that the market has an immense amount of skepticism about their ability to…”
TBPN

Meta trades at a discount on installed compute because the market doubts it can monetize its GPUs

METMETALONG@ $583.35
$562.08-3.65%
since call Jun 15
peak +15.2%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“The bull case is it's potentially the greatest business in history … That actually is accelerated by AI.”
TBPN

Meta's code-format internal data turns AI capex into a self-improving ad engine, making ad growth more durable.

METMETALONG@ $588.19
$562.08-4.44%
since call Jun 15
peak +14.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo ago
“So I think investors are rethinking their commitments to companies that might have to raise capital like Meta and perhaps even Microsoft.”
The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman

AI capex turns big software into capital-hungry hardware firms, so companies forced to raise capital de-rate

METMETASHORT@ $580.48
$562.08+3.17%
since call Jun 12
peak +6.7%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“Can you imagine telling somebody that 2 years ago that SpaceX in 2026 would be worth $2.3 trillion and Meta would be worth $1.4 trillion”
TBPN

Meta makes $200 billion a year, growing 30%, and trades at $1.4 trillion while SpaceX debuts at $2.3 trillion; the cheap one catches up.

METMETALONG@ $567.14
$562.08-0.89%
since call Jun 12
peak +20.7%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“that is where all of the marketing spend is and will continue to be … these companies are like the best buy in the world because they're both producing AI…”
1000x · Avi Felman

Long Facebook/Meta as marketing spend concentrates in the dominant ad platforms

METMETALONG@ $580.91
$562.08-3.24%
since call Jun 10
peak +19.5%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“The Social Reckoning movie won't dent Meta; ad business is unboycottable and regulation won't single it out”
TBPN

The Social Reckoning movie won't dent Meta; ad business is unboycottable and regulation won't single it out

METMETALONG@ $571.84
$562.08-1.71%
since call Jun 10
peak +18.8%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo ago
“the cash burn of the Mag 7 plus Oracle in recent years is astronomical... companies like Meta going from 80 billion of free cash flow to almost negative”
The Master Investor Podcast

Short Meta: The company's free cash flow is being decimated, dropping from $80 billion to almost negative, as it is forced to fund massive space infrastructure and AI capital expenditures.

METMETASHORT@ $585.54
$562.08+4.01%
since call Jun 9
peak +9.5%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT1mo ago
“...and now Alphabet (GOOG) has even resorted to its first major equity issuance since 2004 (with Meta reportedly considering one as well now)... Do you remember how much pain Zuck had to take on the M”
Kuppy's Korner · Praetorian Capital

Meta is poised for a massive multiple compression as it considers dilutive equity issuances to fund deeply unprofitable AI datacenters.

METMETASHORT@ $571.69
$562.08+1.68%
since call Jun 7
peak +9.6%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG1mo ago
“it's ads. We estimate currently that about a quarter of ads served by Meta and Google are AI enabled.”
All-In Podcast

AI-enabled ads at Meta/Google go from 25% to 100% penetration, a $150B revenue pillar

METMETALONGIDEA · NOT YET PRICED
METMETALONG1mo ago
“we own Microsoft, we own Meta, we own Amazon.”
All-In Podcast

Founder-led Zuckerberg can make radical AI bets while hired CEOs play not-to-get-fired; Meta left behind

METMETALONGIDEA · NOT YET PRICED
METMETALONGPOSITION2mo ago
“they just have to figure out ways to monetize everything that they're building … they may surprise some folks”
TBPN

Meta must monetize $100B+ CapEx via AWS-style compute and enterprise; risky but may surprise.

METMETALONG@ $639.95
$562.08-12.17%
since call May 29
peak +8.1%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG2mo ago
“AOC becomes president. She breaks up Google.”
ThreadGuy

If a Google antitrust breakup removes the dominant ad rival, Meta inherits the ad market

METMETALONGIDEA · NOT YET PRICED
METMETALONG2mo ago
“their core advertising business is more durable than the Google search engine right now”
TBPN

Meta's core ad business is more durable than Google Search and keeps compounding; compute capacity is the floor

METMETALONG@ $608.50
$562.08-7.63%
since call May 20
peak +13.3%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG2mo ago
“You got to give Zuckerberg immense credit, what he's done in terms of making Meta an AI-first company internally. And I do think he is the only one of those…”
Invest Like the Best

Meta is now a genuine AI-first company; Muse's strong debut and aggressive talent buys improved its position.

METMETALONG@ $593.85
$562.08-5.35%
since call May 20
peak +13.1%
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METMETALONG2mo ago
“every pixel of their entire family of apps is monetizable … by launching Instants, Instagram is trying to rebuild that casual sharing of their user base”
TBPN

Meta bullish; every pixel of its apps is monetizable and new Instants feature rebuilds casual sharing

METMETALONG@ $602.92
$562.08-6.77%
since call May 15
peak +11.3%
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METMETALONG2mo ago
“if you take Meta, right, I mean, like, everyone in the world uses it, right? Like, I think 6 billion people out of 8, if not all 8. Everyone interacts with…”
ThreadGuy

6 billion users, insane margins, a sure-thing moat that he says rides the bull market to $3,000

METMETALONGIDEA · NOT YET PRICED
METMETALONG2mo ago
“it's all the spending and no revenue acceleration associated with that spending”
TBPN

Meta is one of history's best businesses getting no AI credit while ad revenue grows 33%, but spend with no revenue acceleration caps it

METMETALONG@ $616.77
$562.08-8.87%
since call May 5
peak +13.4%
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METMETALONG3mo ago
“I continue to think it just strengthens the incumbents. … these platforms will just get more content on them that will probably be LLM-generated, LLM-enhanced”
TBPN

LLMs deepen engagement on the dominant social network instead of spawning a rival, so the incumbent compounds.

METMETALONG@ $614.90
$562.08-8.59%
since call May 1
peak +11.9%
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METMETASHORT3mo ago
“Meta, it's got to show up in the AI figures. It's got to show up in the ad business … there's not an easy place to just like stuff compute necessarily and at least get a market standard return on inve”
TBPN

Meta's CapEx raise has no clean monetization path; market can't price the AGI bet, stock down ~10%.

METMETASHORT@ $614.81
$562.08+8.58%
since call May 1
peak +13.4%
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METMETALONG3mo ago
“distribution-wise, they're in everybody. They're already with everyone.”
Market Bubble

Meta underrated in AI; distribution through WhatsApp/Instagram wins the mass market

METMETALONG@ $597.37
$562.08-5.91%
since call Apr 30
peak +11.8%
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METMETASHORT3mo ago
“Goddamn, I'm getting crushed. It's down 7%. it's down 7 is nuts.”
ThreadGuy

Meta beats but gets crushed on CapEx/spend fears; the post-earnings loser to fade.

METMETASHORTIDEA · NOT YET PRICED
METMETALONG3mo ago
“An AI advancement delivers better ad performance basically immediately. … they just don't have a diffusion question.”
TBPN

Meta AI improvements hit ad revenue instantly, no diffusion lag, so AI CapEx converts to profit fastest here

METMETALONG@ $666.36
$562.08-15.65%
since call Apr 29
peak +1.8%
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METMETASHORT3mo ago
“China does have a good amount of leverage given that like tens of billions of, of Meta ad spend originates from Chinese company. And so they could put…”
TBPN

Beijing can weaponize Chinese ad spend over the blocked Manus deal, threatening ~10% of Meta's revenue.

METMETASHORT@ $666.36
$562.08+15.65%
since call Apr 27
peak +22.0%
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METMETALONG3mo ago
“Meta is cutting 10% of their workforce, which is 8,000 employees.”
TBPN

Meta cuts 10% of staff to fund AI; structural efficiency signal supports a mega-cap margin re-rate.

METMETALONG@ $649.23
$562.08-13.42%
since call Apr 23
peak +3.8%
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METMETALONGPOSITION3mo ago
“The business results they're publishing are largely very good, but the market is much more concerned about these AI investments that they're making...”
We Study Billionaires · Clay Finck

Meta's good results are masked by AI spend fears, but internal compute demand makes the payoff likely.

METMETALONG@ $690.19
$562.08-18.56%
since call Apr 18
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG3mo ago
“people are using them as GoPros … I know a lot of people that use them as AirPods replacements”
TBPN

Meta smart glasses get real consumer adoption as cameras and audio devices even before AI features mature.

METMETALONG@ $687.14
$562.08-18.20%
since call Apr 15
peak +1.7%
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METMETALONG3mo ago
“I think if you're not an incumbent, so specifically, who do I mean? Meta, Google, and SpaceX. I think those three people who have all three of them... What…”
All-In Podcast

Chamath argues the AI race converges to a compute war that only capital-rich incumbents can win, and he names Meta first. Among the three he listed only Meta and Google are public, and Meta most purely turns the thesis into a buyable equity.

METMETALONG@ $637.10
$562.08-11.78%
since call Apr 10
peak +8.6%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETALONG3mo ago
“I know the market is thrilled that Meta has released a close to frontier level model. Right. This is a new group. They've been at it for less than a year. The…”
TBPN

Meta ships closed near-frontier model MuseSpark; resolves AI-spend uncertainty, stock up ~8%.

METMETALONG@ $615.97
$562.08-8.75%
since call Apr 8
peak +11.7%
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METMETALONG3mo ago
“Meta has been a huge beneficiary and a huge winner of AI. The ads are getting better targeting. They're seeing They're delivering more ads and the quarterly…”
TBPN

Meta is a top AI winner: better ad targeting and more ad delivery driving strong earnings.

METMETALONG@ $569.36
$562.08-1.28%
since call Apr 7
peak +18.9%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT4mo agoFLIPPED
“I will say it again and again, the hyperscalers are software companies. They get disrupted as well.”
Jordi Visser

Hyperscalers as a group are software companies that get disrupted; should be shorts or at best market performers

METMETASHORT@ $525.72
EXIT—
since call Mar 29
flipped Jul 5 · held 98d · record frozen
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METMETALONG4mo ago
“They're going to make Gemini free for life for the best models. That's my prediction for Google. And I think Meta will be right behind them... Right now, 80%…”
All-In Podcast

Jason's view is that cash-rich incumbents weaponize free AI distribution to zero out rivals' subscription revenue. The Google leg duplicates the GOOGL long already on the site, so the non-redundant expression is long Meta, the player he names as next to give AI away for free while monetizing through ads.

METMETALONG@ $536.89
$562.08+4.69%
since call Mar 27
peak +30.1%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETALONGPOSITION4mo ago
“I guess Meta sort of hit some headwinds, but they're going to continue investing tremendously in AI and they've got deep pockets to do it. So I think that…”
All-In Podcast

Sacks reads Meta's recent AI stumble as temporary because its ad-driven cash machine bankrolls a buildout rivals cannot match. The non-obvious link is that the bull case is about balance-sheet endurance, not current model quality.

METMETALONG@ $630.05
$562.08-10.79%
since call Mar 17
peak +9.0%
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT4mo agoFLIPPED
“if we don't see adoption pick up at a faster pace, if the costs keep going higher and the data center delays continue…”
Jordi Visser

Meta falls further on free cash flow fears as AI costs surge, data centers delay and 20% layoffs loom

METMETASHORT@ $613.71
EXIT—
since call Mar 15
flipped Jul 5 · held 112d · record frozen
Trade on Robinhood →
METMETASHORT5mo agoFLIPPED
“Meta auditor Ernst Young raised red flags on data center accounting. This is a big story...”
Jordi Visser

Hyperscalers face worst month in a decade as levered capex bets meet slowing AI revenue and credit cracks.

METMETASHORT@ $648.18
EXIT—
since call Mar 1
flipped Jul 5 · held 126d · record frozen
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METMETASHORT5mo agoFLIPPED
“You can't get the revenue without the capacity. The capacity is not there. … you want to be underweight all of the hyperscalers…”
Jordi Visser

Hyperscalers face an RPO-vs-capacity trap, short the 4 big names as a funding cost against scarcity longs

METMETASHORT@ $639.77
EXIT—
since call Feb 15
flipped Jul 5 · held 140d · record frozen
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METMETALONG5mo ago
“why is somebody paying $100 million for an AI researcher or $1 billion for an AI researcher. Like, that's the craziest thing I've ever heard. Well, what if…”
Invest Like the Best

Scarce AI researchers command billion-dollar pay because only ~40 can build frontier models

METMETALONG@ $705.48
$562.08-20.33%
since call Feb 3
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETASHORT7mo ago
“Mark Zuckerberg, at the beginning of this year in January said... I'm highly confident... that at some point in 2025, we're going to have the best and most…”
Invest Like the Best

Meta lags badly on frontier models, dragging ROIC and the stock despite heavy CapEx

METMETASHORT@ $655.00
$562.08+14.19%
since call Dec 9
peak +19.4%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETALONG7mo ago
“I guess Meta sort of hit some headwinds, but they're going to continue investing tremendously in AI and they've got deep pockets to do it. So I think that…”
All-In Podcast

Meta hit AI headwinds but deep pockets and forced distribution across its apps set up a comeback

METMETALONGIDEA · NOT YET PRICED
METMETALONG10mo ago
“I think Meta's got the cards to potentially like own it all... the next paradigm in human-computer interface is we don't actually have to touch it at all. We…”
Invest Like the Best

Meta has the full stack, hardware, models, serving, and recommendation, to own the next computing interface.

METMETALONG@ $744.01
$562.08-24.45%
since call Sep 30
Trade on Hyperliquid →
METMETALONGPOSITION1y ago
“our view going back really from the beginning was that probably most of the value would be created at the application layer. Right. And so that's part of why…”
Invest Like the Best

Meta wins AI at the application layer, commercializing core products at scale; large position pays off.

METMETALONG@ $615.48
$562.08-8.68%
since call Mar 12
peak +10.4%
Trade on Hyperliquid →