IEF
6 tracked calls · 4 long · 2 short · last 90d: 2L/2S
first called by Jordi Visser 5mo ago
SHORT3d ago
“We're going to go to five and a half on the 10-year note, you want the 10-year note yield to stop going up. Raise rates show a little bit of panic about inflation and then people calm down.”Wealthion
The 10-year yield is heading to 5.5% because the Fed is failing to panic about sticky inflation and refusing to hike rates.
IEFSHORT@ $91.23
$91.11+0.13%
since call Jul 28
peak +0.6%
LONG3w ago
“I wouldn't be worried about treasuries... If anything, you know, you get a bid for treasuries... the banks would because they're just pocketing the spread and if uh there's a big spread between what t”Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
Banks are aggressively buying Treasuries to pocket the nominal GDP spread, driving an 11.6% growth in holdings that makes intermediate bonds a strong buy.
IEFLONG@ $91.92
$91.11-0.88%
since call Jul 5
SHORT4w agoFLIPPED
“you're talking about a 10-year nominal Treasury yield that is a fair value of about, you know, five and a quarter, somewhere about 5.9... you're talking about a bond market that could easily repric to”Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
The 10-year Treasury yield will reprice well north of 5% as reduced Fed communication inflates the term premium.
IEFSHORT@ $94.10
EXIT$94.18-0.09%
since call Jul 2
flipped Jul 5 · held 4d · record frozen at -0.09%
Trade on Robinhood →LONG1mo ago
“the policy rate is too high on nominal yields while inflation's dropping. So the Fed's kind of too tight here... breakeven's going lower, right?”Forward Guidance · Tyler Neville
If inflation is rolling over and the Fed is too tight, front-end-to-belly yields fall and Treasury prices rally.
IEFLONG@ $96.46
$91.11-5.54%
since call Jun 12
LONG4mo ago
“We're about a percentage point above that level right now. … I think it's appropriate over the course of this year to just get back to neutral.”Forward Guidance · Stephen Miran
Fed is a percentage point above neutral and should cut to ~2.5% this year, inflation fears overdone
IEFLONG@ $94.85
$91.11-3.94%
since call Apr 1
LONG5mo ago
“Why are 10-year rates going down at this point? … I continue to believe the deflationary pressures from AI will show up in services…”Jordi Visser
AI deflation pulls real yields and inflation down, so 10-year rates keep falling despite hot payrolls
IEFLONG@ $97.75
$91.11-6.79%
since call Feb 15