Jordi Visser — sniff.trade

Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser (CEO of Visser Labs, Head of AI Macro Research at 22V) on AI, macro, markets, and the capex cycle.

30 episodes · 378 trades · 3 speakers

all speakers ▾

TRACKED TRADES

@JordiVisserLabs

5d

Short-Term AI Fear, Long-Term Compute Scarcity

IDEAS · 18

SPYSPYLONGThe S&P 500 remains in a structural bull market as it holds above its upward-sloping 200-day moving average.$735.01+0.24%›IWMIWMLONGSmall caps are outperforming the broader market as falling volatility signals broadening earnings strength.$296.87+1.89%›INTINTCLONGIntel will find a bottom and build upward momentum after proving its fundamental strength through earnings beats.$88.70-3.77%›MUMULONGMicron is positioned to find a bottom and build momentum as it successfully beats earnings expectations during market consolidation.$810.22-12.94%›

+14 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

1w

AI’s Speed Crash: The Structural Bull Market Isn’t Over

IDEAS · 15

MUMULONGMicron is a structural AI winner as DRAM prices rise across the board and long-term contracts lock in a memory shortage.$810.22-6.25%›SPYSPYLONGThe S&P 500 continues its structural bull market as broad-based earnings beats and strong GDP defy recession fears.$735.01-2.43%›MSFMSFTLONGMicrosoft's AI compute demand remains insatiable as massive contractual orders outpace supply and debt-to-equity stays near zero.$473.69+22.24%›AMZAMZNLONGAmazon's AI compute demand remains insatiable as massive contractual orders outpace supply and debt-to-equity stays near zero.$267.79+7.42%›

+11 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

2w

AI’s Speed Crash Is Creating the Next Opportunity

IDEAS · 8

SPYSPYLONGThe S&P 500 chart is structurally bullish, shrugging off bad news out of Iran to keep grinding higher.$735.01-4.36%›CRMCRMSHORTSalesforce is a structural loser of AI abundance, as its software is built on code that can be easily replicated by computers.$187.71-15.72%›MUMULONGMicron is securing $100 billion long-term supply agreements as memory capacity fails to keep up with exponential AI demand.$810.22-17.86%›NVDNVDALONGNvidia is flashing a MACD buy signal while holding its 200-day moving average at its lowest valuation in a decade.$197.92-6.54%›

+4 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

3w

Momentum Is Crashing, Bitcoin Is Bottoming, AI Agents Are Rising

IDEAS · 16

BTCBTCLONGBitcoin is bottoming and will rally as crowded long-dollar trades and rate-hike expectations unwind.$62,974-1.69%›GLDGLDLONGGold will benefit from a macro rotation as the market unwinds crowded long-dollar positions and prices out Fed rate hikes.$369.90-0.43%›SLVSLVLONGSilver is positioned to gain from the unwinding of crowded long-dollar trades and a reversal in rate hike expectations.$52.00-7.01%›UUPUUPSHORTThe US dollar will roll over as the market unwinds crowded long positioning and prices out Fed rate hikes.$27.70+1.96%›

+12 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

4w

Hyperscalers Are Collapsing. Is the AI "Bubble" Crashing or Consolidating?

IDEAS · 13

MSFMSFTSHORTMicrosoft faces relative underperformance as capital rotates out of the hyperscalers and into the thematic AI hardware receivers.$390.49-4.70%›AMZAMZNSHORTAmazon's stock is getting pounded as the market penalizes massive AI infrastructure spenders despite their growing profit margins.$242.67-4.29%›GOOGOOGLSHORTAlphabet faces multiple compression as uncertainty mounts over its ability to generate AI revenues fast enough to justify its massive capital expenditures.$359.91-6.67%›METMETASHORTMeta is suffering a benchmark arbitrage rotation as investors re-weight away from high-multiple mega-caps in favor of cheaper AI beneficiaries.$582.90-5.93%›

+9 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

1mo

Signal Over Noise: “The Most Important Moment in Human History”

IDEAS · 13

SPYSPYLONGThe S&P 500 keeps running on its lowest PEG ratio in 22 years and is nowhere near bubble territory.$735.01-1.96%›IWMIWMLONGSmall caps are making new all-time highs as their PEG ratio collapses due to earnings growth.$296.87-0.22%›SMHSMHLONGSemiconductors are the long side of the AI trade against software.$535.71-20.40%›IGVIGVSHORTSoftware is the short side of the AI trade against semiconductors.$93.05-5.71%›

+9 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

1mo

The AI Mid-Cycle Slowdown: OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Price War

IDEAS · 8

MSFMSFTSHORTHyperscalers lose to the receivers of their spending; short the spenders as money rotates out.—›IWMIWMLONGSmall caps at new all-time highs and the great rotation out of 7 names into 100 keeps running.$296.87+2.19%›ENTENTGLONGEntegris breaks out as the missing chemical layer of AI complexity comes into focus with Vera Rubin.$118.13-20.44%›SILSILVERLONGSilver is undervalued; data centers in space and solid-state batteries create huge new demand from collapsed prices.$58.13-15.89%›

+4 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

1mo

The Fireworks Show Is Over: Why This Is An AI Rotation, Not a Bubble Unwind

POSITIONS · 4

JVJordi Visser

LLYLLYLONGEli Lilly is the application-layer winner of AI; doubles and triples ahead as pharma rides recursive self-improvement.$1,131.22-0.65%›BTCBTCLONGBuying Bitcoin on the way down as the AI agent economy needs crypto rails to transact and settle.$62,973.50+2.17%›SILSILVERLONGBuying silver as a hard asset in the compute-vs-energy regime; position is down but held.$58.13-13.79%›XOMXOMLONGEnergy majors are mispriced; Strait of Hormuz risk keeps oil bid and makes them a defensive hedge$156.93+5.58%›

IDEAS · 5

MUMUSHORTMemory has likely topped for now; risk-reward gone as everyone piles in and RSI could solve the bottleneck.—›SP5SP500LONGS&P correction is a rotation not a bear market; macro is the photographic negative of a sustained bear.$7,369.01-2.02%›XLVXLVLONGCapital exiting chips rotates into healthcare; healthcare comes back to life as the new leadership.$165.76+9.85%›FLNFLNCLONGFluence rides battery storage becoming a necessity for data centers, validated by Siemens and Nvidia deals$14.17-36.68%›

+1 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

2mo

“We Will Have a Crash”: Why AI Brings Out the Fear in People

POSITIONS · 1

JVJordi Visser

SILSILVERLONGSilver is part of the AI physical build-out and a better home than memory; rotated capital in$58.13-20.98%›

IDEAS · 7

MODMODLONGAI supply-chain bottlenecks are repricing the build-out; long the picks-and-shovels names, short the hyperscalers$198.20-29.16%›DELDELLLONGDell's chart is justified by exploding AI server earnings, not a bubble; the numbers support higher$399.87-15.97%›MUMUSHORTMemory risk-reward has flipped after 1000% run; rotate out of Micron into silver and Bitcoin—›BTCBTCLONGBitcoin is in a confirmed bear market; wait for the 200-day reclaim, then a big crypto move next year$62,973.50-14.84%›

+3 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

2mo

Bottlenecks, Momentum Breaks, and the Next Phase of AI

POSITIONS · 1

JVJordi Visser

INTINTCLONGIntel under $110 is a buy; CPUs and optical beat memory on demand surprise versus supply$88.70-27.64%›

IDEAS · 9

SP5SP500SHORTS&P stretched after a huge run; mean reversion correction likely as month-end profit-taking hits.$7,375.60+2.50%›MSFMSFTSHORTHyperscaler basket broke below 20-day MA, the spenders stalling, telling you the market is tired.—›XLIXLISHORTGlobal industrials rolling over with MACD sell signal, the first crack before semis break.$183.72-5.00%›WTIWTILONGOil set to spike: largest US crude draw since 1982, Hormuz unresolved, inventories draining globally.$88.68-4.33%›

+5 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

2mo

Running Hot Into Scarcity: Why Bottlenecks Are the Risk to the AI “Bubble”

POSITIONS · 1

JVJordi Visser

SILSILVERLONGAccumulating silver as a scarcity play not yet at 52-week highs with no bubble signs.$58.13-24.59%›

IDEAS · 14

SOXSOXXSHORTAI semis are 5 sigma stretched and 62% above the 200-day; the next phase is volatility and speed crashes, not gains.$496.50+0.16%›MUMUSHORTOut of Micron entirely after a 5-8 bagger; DRAM price momentum has turned negative, the driver is gone.—›IGVIGVSHORTShort software has been the other half of the trade; CapEx spenders face permanent multiple compression.$93.05-3.78%›WTIWTILONGOil stays elevated as the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, draining inventories with no cushion.$88.68-14.11%›

+10 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

2mo

Bubbles, Parabolas and Speed Crashes: The End of Human Market Structure

POSITIONS · 9

JVJordi Visser

NVDNVDALONGNvidia bought into the data center buildout as a lower-beta trade; rotating Micron proceeds into it$197.92-9.47%›MUMUSHORTSelling most of Micron, memory market is furthest ahead in the parabola and due for a speed crash—›XLUXLULONGPower is the new bottleneck, rotate into utilities, grid, batteries and the names feeding AI electricity$45.23+0.92%›SILSILVERLONGSilver lagging gold and breaking out as inflation stage and negative real yields return$58.13-29.54%›FLNFLNCLONGBattery names like Fluence rerate as AI data centers need massive grid storage$14.17-41.80%›IYTIYTLONGTransportation and logistics are booming on AI capex, capacity is gone and rates are spiking$86.72+7.63%›IGVIGVSHORTSoftware apps are a value trap, fade IGV as the benchmark arbitrage unwinds the service layer$93.05-2.87%›BTCBTCLONGNegative real yields and tokenization drive Bitcoin as growing portfolio allocation$62,973.50-22.16%›ETHETHLONGEthereum bought as a Micron replacement on the crypto/AI agent convergence$1,862.45-19.84%›

IDEAS · 12

SMHSMHLONGAI demand is real and unbounded so the AI complex keeps going parabolic, this is no dot-com bubble$535.71-5.61%›STRSTRLLONGSterling Infrastructure is a must-read as data center buildout demand spreads to infrastructure builders$609.66-27.66%›WTIWTILONGOil stays bid for longer as the Strait stays shut and countries rebuild inventories after the scare$88.68-4.26%›DBADBALONGAgricultural commodities and food prices catch up higher in the second half as fertilizer and gas rise$27.07-2.74%›

+8 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

2mo

Your Capex is My Opportunity: The AI Capex Cycle Has Replaced the Old Economy Business Cycle

POSITIONS · 1

JVJordi Visser

MSTMSTRLONGMicroStrategy calls into year-end as a leveraged Bitcoin bet once CPI tops 3-month yields.$91.74-48.85%›

IDEAS · 16

SOXSOXXLONGSemiconductors are the biggest S&P sector at $10T and lead everything as AI CapEx accelerates.—›NVDNVDALONGNVIDIA trades at 10-year low forward PE while demand runs to 2030; multiple re-rates higher.$197.92-2.99%›SILSILVERLONGShort the hyperscalers (the spenders) and own the thematic buildout names that receive the CapEx.$58.13-23.76%›ENTENTGLONGChemicals are an unrecognized AI play in a long-term bull market as TeraFab buildout consumes them.$118.13-15.62%›

+12 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

3mo

The Edge Awakens: Why the Physical AI Upgrade Is Still in the First Inning

POSITIONS · 1

JVJordi Visser

SILSILVERLONGSilver lagging the basket is a great entry; China imported the most ever in March$58.13-22.30%›

IDEAS · 17

SOXSOXXLONGSemis are the new largest S&P weight and still early innings; long the AI physical-buildout basket—›XLCXLCSHORTHyperscalers are the funding vehicle; their capex and ROIC drag means they lag the S&P$110.58+3.09%›IGVIGVSHORTCode-based SaaS is a dead asset; agentic AI destroys the seat-based model, avoid software$93.05-6.93%›TXNTXNLONGAI demand pulls into industrial and edge; Texas Instruments is the barometer breaking out$272.01-2.99%›

+13 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

3mo

While You're Watching Oil Prices, AI Is Accelerating And Rewriting The Economy

POSITIONS · 3

JVJordi Visser

NVDNVDALONGNvidia Blackwell/Vera Rubin upgrade cycle is a durable AI hardware investment theme$197.92+13.88%›LLYLLYLONGEli Lilly's own AI token factory plus DeepMind, NVIDIA, Insilico ties make it a drug-discovery winner$1,131.22+22.31%›SMHSMHLONGSemis broaden past memory into packaging, analog, edge, autos and phones as agentic phase arrives$535.71+38.83%›

IDEAS · 13

SP5SP500SHORTStagflation signal (prices paid >75, employment <50) historically precedes 20-48% S&P drawdowns$7,375.60-13.33%›IYTIYTLONGTransports signal strong nominal GDP, flatbed rates at historic highs from data center and energy buildout$86.72+13.27%›LSTLSTRLONGFlatbed trucking names like Landstar ride the historic surge in industrial freight rates$172.74+6.28%›XLUXLULONGUtilities act great despite higher rates as AI data centers drive electricity demand higher$45.23-3.81%›

+9 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

4mo

The End of TACO PTSD: Markets Are Finally Facing The Inflation Reality

IDEAS · 13

MSFMSFTSHORTHyperscalers are software companies getting disrupted and rerated, not longs; Microsoft broke 200-week MA first time since 2013—›METMETASHORTHyperscalers as a group are software companies that get disrupted; should be shorts or at best market performers—›ORCORCLSHORTOracle's CDX blew out and stock zoomed to new lows as AI debt risk repriced$127.77+8.35%›SILSILVERLONGCommodities, energy, materials and hardware are the new alpha as growth gets rerated in a 2007-style super-cycle$58.13-18.19%›

+9 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

4mo

2025 TACO PTSD: Why Strategists, Analysts, and Investors Are Still Fighting the Last War

IDEAS · 15

SP5SP500SHORTS&P broke its 6-month rate-of-change below zero, a signal that preceded every recession, yet nobody fears one$7,375.60-13.40%›XLFXLFSHORTFinancials broke below a downward-sloping 200-day, the worst sector, and the S&P always follows them down$58.17-21.05%›WTIWTILONGOil is spiking across every benchmark from Hormuz and energy-facility damage the IEA says takes 6 months to fix$88.68-7.36%›TIPTIPSHORTOil through everything plus war disruptions mean year-over-year CPI surges, killing rate cuts and pricing tightening$109.07-1.06%›

+11 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

4mo

Oil, AI, and Private Credit: The New Market Stress Cycle

POSITIONS · 1

JVJordi Visser

SMHSMHLONGSemis keep working as exponential AI demand and memory and hardware shortages drive prices higher$535.71+36.40%›

IDEAS · 15

WTIWTILONGStrait of Hormuz closure keeps oil elevated for months, far longer than the market's quick-fade assumption$88.68-9.92%›UGAUGALONGGasoline at the pump runs toward $4 as RBOB futures lead, dragging CPI year-over-year sharply higher—›TBTTBTLONGRate cuts get priced out and rate hikes priced in as inflation expectations spike, sending yields higher globally$38.99+12.81%›VIXVIXMLONGVIX climbs to 30 as private credit unwind and turbulence force volatility higher beneath a quiet index$14.78-11.16%›

+11 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

4mo

Financials Are Warning Something Is Wrong: Oil, AI and Credit Are Colliding

IDEAS · 14

VIXVIXYLONGDeleveraging cycle is firing before the drawdown, so VIX trends higher as liquidity needs grow.$20.95-39.85%›CCLCCLFXSHORTPrivate credit is unwinding as retail redeems into illiquid books, spreading credit stress wider.$10.23+4.15%›WTIWTILONGOil above $80 with Strait of Hormuz risk is an inflation shock that hurts both earnings and growth.$88.68-8.20%›IGVIGVSHORTAI disruption is killing legacy SaaS as software stacks shift to agents and orchestration.$93.05-5.78%›

+10 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

5mo

The Hidden Crisis: Private Credit, Hyperscaler Leverage, and the Software Reckoning

POSITIONS · 2

JVJordi Visser

TLTTLTLONGLong-duration Treasuries rally as a crowded short unwinds and contagion drives a flight to duration.—›SILSILVERLONGBuy hard-asset sectors that will exist in 3 years, silver, analog semis, chemicals, energy, over software.$58.13-39.93%›

IDEAS · 9

BKLBKLNSHORTSoftware unwind has become a credit event, leveraged loan ETFs break down for first time since 2022 Fed pivot.$20.42-0.17%›METMETASHORTHyperscalers face worst month in a decade as levered capex bets meet slowing AI revenue and credit cracks.—›ACWACWXLONGForeign stocks (MSCI World ex-US) go parabolic because they lack the software exposure dragging down the US.$74.49+1.15%›BTCBTCLONGBitcoin becomes the asset wealth flees to as AI makes people doubt public companies, fiat, and everything$62,973.50-5.87%›

+5 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

5mo

Valuations Are Falling for a Reason: AI Is Repricing the Future

IDEAS · 14

IGVIGVSHORTSoftware multiples keep compressing as AI makes 3-year revenue forecasts impossible; SaaS is a value trap.$93.05-16.09%›BTCBTCLONGBitcoin leads higher once SaaS bottoms; it is the only growth asset AI cannot disrupt.$62,973.50-6.87%›XYZXYZ100SHORTNasdaq tech must underperform; AI deflation means hyperscaler revenues won't justify CapEx.$27,241.00-9.12%›UVXUVXYLONGBuy convexity: VIX calls and CDX high yield protection as dispersion drives credit spreads wider.$23.26-41.09%›

+10 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

5mo

Supersonic Tsunami Hits SaaS: My Turbulence Model Is Flashing Risk

IDEAS · 24

IGVIGVSHORTAI is gutting SaaS via supply explosion not demand, so beaten-down software is a value trap not a bottom$93.05-10.68%›IWMIWMLONGRotate out of abundance (tech/software) into scarcity (energy, materials), so be long small caps vs Nasdaq$296.87+15.10%›SMHSMHLONGSemis are scarcity (needed in 3 years) while software is disposable, so be long semis vs software$535.71+32.92%›MAGMAGSSHORTHyperscalers face a capex trap and competitive erosion, so the Mag 7 underperform from here$65.68-5.43%›

+20 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

5mo

The SaaS-Pocalypse, Bitcoin Crash and Why Understanding Palantir is Now Important for Both of Them

POSITIONS · 4

JVJordi Visser

BTCBTCLONGBitcoin breaks free and heads to a million once AI agents snap its correlation to dying SaaS.$62,973.50-11.91%›PLTPLTRLONGPalantir wins the agents-as-a-service layer; 130% commercial growth makes it a buy on the dip.$125.57-7.73%›EWZEWZLONGBrazil currency, bonds and equities move in lockstep up with commodities this year$36.99-0.95%›AAPAAPLLONGApple Mac Mini/Studio demand rises as users run local open-source AI agents$303.89+6.96%›

IDEAS · 14

IGVIGVSHORTTraditional SaaS multiples keep compressing as AI agents replace the software-as-a-service model.$93.05-10.41%›CRMCRMSHORTSalesforce gets hit hardest as agents make CRM form-and-workflow software unnecessary.$187.71+0.64%›IWMIWMLONGRussell 2000 small caps rip 50-60% this year while Mag 7 stays flat as money broadens out.$296.87+13.93%›XLEXLELONGEnergy and materials' tiny S&P weight surges over five years as money rotates into commodities.$60.84+15.37%›

+10 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

6mo

Agent Swarms, OpenAI Virus, And The Age Of Parabolic Volatility

IDEAS · 17

IGVIGVSHORTSoftware is in early stages of a re-rating lower as RPOs can't convert to revenue fast enough$93.05-2.93%›XLEXLELONGEnergy is the trade of the year as power scarcity drives prices higher while everyone is bearish$60.84+18.27%›CVXCVXLONGLong Chevron short Salesforce captures the scarcity over abundance divergence, already up 45% this month$197.29+9.42%›SILSILVERLONGSilver goes parabolic as it is a scarce critical mineral in every AI component and in solar, not just precious metal$58.13-30.35%›

+13 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

6mo

Silver Went Parabolic — The Next Trade Is Still Forgotten

POSITIONS · 1

JVJordi Visser

BTCBTCLONGBitcoin chart looks horrible now but a silver-style parabolic catch-up move is coming$62,973.50-29.16%›

IDEAS · 12

SILSILVERLONGSilver is an AI industrial input not a precious metal, demand price inelastic, miners keep a bid$58.13-44.69%›COPCOPXLONGShort companies hurt by AI abundance; invest in the scarce inputs that enable it$77.66-7.48%›XLEXLELONGEnergy and materials will be the two best performing sectors this year, deeply underweighted$60.84+21.59%›IGVIGVSHORTSoftware stocks keep sinking for 5 years as agentic AI and vibe coding destroy the SaaS moat$93.05+2.64%›

+8 more ideas →

@JordiVisserLabs

6mo

Semis vs Software Is Breaking the Market (Scarcity vs Abundance)

POSITIONS · 1

JVJordi Visser

MUMULONGMemory shortage is structural not cyclical, Micron keeps running as supply can't meet AI demand$775.98+114.91%›

IDEAS · 17

SNDSNDKLONGNAND demand surging from Rubin architecture shift to persistent local storage, SanDisk rerating$1,225.22+191.68%›QCOQCOMLONGAdvanced packaging is the new scarcity story as data movement replaces raw GPU compute$150.80-6.30%›AMKAMKRLONGAdvanced packaging index of semis is early-innings, up 12% as data movement becomes the bottleneck$50.41+3.18%›CRMCRMSHORTEnterprise software incumbents face their Ozempic moment as AI replaces headcount and software budgets$187.71+18.47%›

+13 more ideas →