“So I think Google for sure has this temporary advantage right now from a pre-training perspective. I think it's also important that they've been the lowest…”
Google's pre-training edge fades as Blackwell models arrive, ending its low-cost-token oxygen-sucking strategy
“And then when Rubin comes out, we'll know the gap is going to expand significantly.”
Nvidia's annual GPU cadence and full-stack lead widen the gap versus all ASICs once Blackwell and Rubin ship
“And for doing those two latter parts, Broadcom earns a 50 to 55% gross margin. We don't know what on TPUs. Okay. Let's say in 2027, TPU, I think it's, it's…”
Broadcom's TPU margins get squeezed as Google brings ASIC work in-house and adds MediaTek
“Like, I think robotics, you know, we talked about the last time, are going to finally start to be real... I do still think that the main battle is going to be…”
Tesla's Optimus is one of two real winners in mass-produced humanoid robotics versus China
“There's one really obvious bear case and it is just edge AI... you will be able to probably run a pruned down version of something like Gemini 5 or Grok 4...…”
Edge AI on phones is the most plausible bear case, undercutting cloud compute demand
“So one of the most important things they do is they quote price and availability... in the past they said it would take them, you know, 15 to 45 minutes and…”
C.H. Robinson shows AI lifting non-tech Fortune 500 earnings, a template for the broad market
“Mark Zuckerberg, at the beginning of this year in January said... I'm highly confident... that at some point in 2025, we're going to have the best and most…”
Meta lags badly on frontier models, dragging ROIC and the stock despite heavy CapEx
“OpenAI's issue that they're trying to solve with Stargate is because they pay a margin to people for compute. Maybe the people who run their compute are not…”
OpenAI is a high-cost token producer with $1.4T commitments, structurally squeezed by cheaper rivals
“Anthropic is a good company. They're burning dramatically less cash than OpenAI and growing faster. So I think you have to give Anthropic a lot of credit. And…”
Anthropic earns credit burning far less cash and growing faster, aided by Google/Amazon chip deals
“And a big problem in the world right now is that Taiwan Semi is not expanding capacity as fast as their customers want.”
Taiwan Semi under-expanding capacity acts as a governor; eventual catch-up plus shortages favor it
“But the solutions are natural gas and solar... I think we're going to have a lot of natural gas for a long time. Ramp production really fast.”
Caterpillar rides AI power buildout, expanding turbine capacity 75% as gas powers data centers
“By the way, something that could slow all this down and be a natural governor is if we get our first true DRAM cycle since the late '90s.”
A first true DRAM capacity cycle since the 1990s could send memory prices up by multiples
“And that's exactly what the SaaS companies are doing. They have their 70%, 80%, 90% gross margins, and they are reluctant to accept AI gross margins.”
Application SaaS firms guard high margins instead of running low-margin agents, guaranteeing AI failure
“Microsoft, they bought GitHub and they use GitHub as a distribution channel. For, you know, Copilot. Copilot for coding. That's become a giant business, a…”
Microsoft is the one SaaS incumbent doing AI right, using GitHub to build a giant Copilot business