OPENAI
OpenAI delaying its initial public offering to 2027 proves retail investors are exhausted and shatters the dream of a quick one trillion dollar valuation.
OpenAI ad business is massively underpriced; 900M users plus a $100M ad pilot points to a money printer.
OpenAI's valuation is unsupportable: a trillion in spend on $60B revenue dumped on retail bag holders.
OpenAI's improving enterprise and coding plus recursive improvement give it a top-3 model position
OpenAI growing 3x while Anthropic does 10x; share math says it loses ground to the faster compounder
Frontier-token economics plus closed APIs let Nvidia and labs push pricing, driving OpenAI and Anthropic past $200B ARR this year.
Sacks flags a real catalyst: GPT-5.5 is re-accelerating OpenAI's growth and Codex is taking coding share. That share-take into accelerating growth is what would mark OpenAI's private valuation higher, which the vntl:OPENAI perp tracks.
In the week OpenAI missed both user and revenue targets, Chamath stakes the contrarian case that the misses are a power/compute-supply problem, not a demand problem, and OpenAI's valuation is headed to the trillions from its ~$600B secondary mark.
OpenAI is far from cooked; aggressive compute buying lets it serve the demand Anthropic can't.
Chamath stacks OpenAI's consumer business at $3-4T and its enterprise/refocus path at another $2-3T to argue for a $7-9T eventual cap, an absolute-bullish valuation call. The Ventuals vntl:OPENAI perp prices OpenAI's implied valuation directly, so going long expresses exactly that re-rate rather than a relative race against Anthropic.
Nvidia's OpenAI stake (~$30B pre-IPO) captures upside as the labs become extraordinary companies
Against the chorus of OpenAI FUD (departures, secondary marks below the last round, the New Yorker rehash), Gerstner makes a present-tense buy call, betting the imminent Spud model and Codex ramp put OpenAI firmly back on the wave.
Jensen, whose chips power the entire frontier-model buildout, singles out OpenAI as the category leader headed for enormous scale. The cleanest way to express that named view on-venue is the OpenAI private-valuation perp, which prices the implied company valuation rather than a public equity.
Jason explicitly stakes a fade: OpenAI is at peak, share is bleeding to Google, Grok, Claude and Meta, and the world takes two-thirds of the market. He even names the trade as betting against OpenAI versus the field.
Gerstner frames OpenAI as the sibling long to his Anthropic position, both riding AI momentum into expected 2026 IPOs. The vntl:OPENAI perp lets you take that valuation-momentum view directly without waiting for the listing.
10x token demand against 90% cheaper output tokens, with $10B revenue per gigawatt, scales the leading model lab.
OpenAI's do-everything strategy risks mastering nothing, but its consumer lead and coming ads engine make it a durable winner
ChatGPT combines intent and identity data, the dream of advertising; OpenAI ads business will be massive.
Consumers dumping blood panels into ChatGPT for diagnosis: AI becomes the default health front door
RLVR has no reliable scaling trend, so reasoning-model moats are overhyped and OpenAI's valuation gets repriced down.
OpenAI is a high-cost token producer with $1.4T commitments, structurally squeezed by cheaper rivals
Jason calls this peak OpenAI and stakes that share goes from roughly two-thirds today to about a third as Google, xAI, Anthropic and Meta split the market and bad blood from Sam Altman's deals invites everyone to attack him. The clean expression of his pair trade is shorting the OpenAI valuation, with the long-the-rest leg as context.
ChatGPT goes proactive and multimodal, monetizing far more of its billion users to become a massive company
Today's eval-topping models have weak generalization, so AI revenue stays far behind benchmark hype