Invest Like the Best — sniff.trade

Invest Like the Best

Patrick O'Shaughnessy interviews the best investors, founders, and operators.

52 episodes · 227 trades · 50 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@Invest Like the Best

1w

Why Natural Gas Will Be AI’s Next Great Shortage

IDEAS · 12

UNGUNGLONGNatural gas faces an unbounded, convex price spike by 2028 as AI compute and LNG exports completely exhaust US working gas storage.$10.07-3.22%›EXEEXELONGExpand Energy controls 70% of the remaining core Haynesville wells and trades at just 4x EBITDA before the coming natural gas shortage reprices the commodity.$95.12+8.13%›RRCRRCLONGRange Resources is the highest-quality upstream producer in Appalachia with significant room to grow production and returns as gas prices rise.$39.32+2.49%›NEPNEPLONGNextEra Energy Partners will reap a massive windfall in the early 2030s as they mark their power purchase agreements to market at much higher electricity prices without any new capex.€9.90-10.30%›

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4w

The Two Harvard Dropouts Who raised $800M to take on NVIDIA

IDEAS · 2

TSMTSMLONGTSMC is the inevitable foundry winner because unmatched customer service and free custom yield experiments lock in clients.$395.78-15.88%›NVDNVDALONGNvidia maintains its AI chip dominance over hyperscaler silicon because its pure-play focus yields superior flop density like the B300.$197.94-1.99%›

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1mo

Investing a $120 Billion Balance Sheet with No Outside Investors

IDEAS · 2

CRMCRMSHORTSalesforce faces massive valuation headwinds as future AI-native enterprise giants bypass its legacy ecosystem.$188.01-22.67%›ORCORCLSHORTOracle's long-duration credit and equity face structural repricing as AI unpredictability makes 30-year horizons highly risky for legacy software.$127.39+21.97%›

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1mo

Why the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started

POSITIONS · 7

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ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic's coding lead and oligopoly position drive 10x sales growth into a multi-trillion AI market—IDEA›GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle's Gemini stays a top-3 model winner, justifying it as one of the firm's largest positions$355.95-2.31%›NVDNVDALONGNVIDIA rides 10x annual AI compute growth with the world structurally short on chips for years$197.94-7.23%›CLSCLSLONGCelestica goes from commodity contract maker to critical AI infrastructure with 50-60% Ethernet share$335.43-11.35%›GLWGLWLONGCorning's dominant high-spec fiber share rides scale-out and a 2-3x copper-to-fiber switch upside$138.16-25.97%›AEIAEISLONGDelta and Advanced Energy ASPs climb 40% a year as each Nvidia chip needs far more power$294.17-2.76%›TSMTSMLONGTSMC and ASML are deeply levered to the AI chip super-cycle as mega-cap holdings$395.78-9.70%›

IDEAS · 3

CRMCRMSHORTEnterprise application software gets squeezed and disrupted by AI, justifying a net short$188.01-4.51%›SKHSKHXLONGHigh-bandwidth memory decommoditizes as AI demand leaves DRAM and NAND 30% short—IDEA›OPEOPENAILONGOpenAI's improving enterprise and coding plus recursive improvement give it a top-3 model position—IDEA›

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1mo

Uber CEO on AI, Autonomous Vehicles, and the Future of Transportation

POSITIONS · 1

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UBEUBERLONGUber turns AV demand aggregation into another trillion-dollar marketplace as ride costs fall and demand explodes$71.41-0.57%›

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2mo

Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy

POSITIONS · 5

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NVDNVDALONGNVIDIA at 15x '27 / 12x '28 is a catch-up trade in the most dominant AI compute name; valuation undemanding.$197.94-9.27%›ASMASMLLONGEuropean local-economy companies are challenged by regulation and anti-capitalist attitude; favor global names like Rolls-Royce, ASML.$1,623.05-1.57%›DHRDHRLONGDanaher re-entered small on the sell-off; best-run continuous-improvement operator, but COVID surge-to-headwind still unresolved.$194.63+7.43%›MSFMSFTLONGHyperscalers and semis cap equipment are the most attractive sector; the CapEx will earn its return$472.28+13.16%›EISEISLONGIsrael equities can outperform through war; one position has been a top portfolio performer$119.06-14.64%›

IDEAS · 3

ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic's revenue growth and product adoption mean AI corporate adoption is barely scratching the surface; bullish.—IDEA›EWJEWJLONGJapan, Korea and Taiwan are a richer hunting ground for great companies than regulation-heavy Europe.$93.77+2.77%›KSAKSALONGGulf states and Middle East offer the highest growth and fastest tech adoption, now better US allies than NATO$37.07-5.01%›

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2mo

Former DoD Advisor on Iran, China and AI Warfare

IDEAS · 8

BABBABASHORTChina is fundamentally illegitimate and will fall in our lifetime, ending up run like Taiwan.$123.34+5.35%›USAUSARLONGUS defense industrial base needs massive multi-year buildout of magazine depth, lifting ordnance and missile makers.$15.14-41.36%›PLTPLTRLONGDefense tech neo-primes are outpacing legacy primes as capital markets fund faster innovation than the Pentagon.$125.76-9.28%›AVAAVAVLONGCommercial drone tech iterates faster than markets; cheap drones become decisive war mass.$149.83-15.65%›

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2mo

Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker

POSITIONS · 6

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MUMULONGDRAM is mispriced cheap versus semi-cap equipment; the cross-sectional valuation gap can't hold.$808.75+9.72%›ALAALABLONGAstera is miscategorized as a copper loser; its switch business sits on both sides of every connection.$307.25+24.84%›AMZAMZNLONGAmazon is well-positioned: Trainium scaling, robotics P&L gains, and deep startup engagement.$267.54+0.90%›NVDNVDALONGNvidia stays dominant: TSMC supply discipline, deep startup ties, and a valuation that prices in unfathomable share loss.$197.94-12.60%›CBRCBRSLONGCerebras built a hard, differentiated wafer-scale architecture that nobody can copy, a strong venture position into its IPO.$202.37-35.06%›GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle's position stays strong on the largest compute installed base and unique data despite losing its TPU cost edge.$355.95-6.96%›

IDEAS · 8

XYZXYZ100LONGAI compute demand is an unprecedented exponential, and AI stocks got historically cheap, so lean in.$27,858.69-5.11%›ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic is dramatically more capital-efficient than OpenAI, and compute-constrained, so its real run-rate is far higher than its mark implies.—IDEA›SPCSPCXLONGSpaceX-style racks in space turn orbital compute into a real inference business that bypasses terrestrial energy and zoning limits.$108.54-46.04%›MSFMSFTLONGMicrosoft's choice to use its own GPUs for products over reselling to OpenAI is right but suppresses the stock near-term.$472.28+15.16%›

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2mo

Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones on AI Risk, Bubbles and Buffet

POSITIONS · 2

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JPYJPYSHORTYen set to rally hard as a Reagan-style new leader resets a grossly undervalued currency$154.24+5.26%›BTCBTCLONGBitcoin is the best inflation hedge there is, scarcer than gold, but vulnerable to cyber and quantum$62,989.50-17.37%›

IDEAS · 2

USBUSBONDSHORTUS sovereign debt is the single clearest bubble PTJ identifies — easing-cycle demand has been pulled forward, masking an inevitable reckoning when that bid exhausts.—IDEA›SP5SP500SHORTS&P delivers negative 10-year returns from here as valuation at 22x P/E guarantees mean reversion$7,347.21-1.85%›

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2mo

Inside Anthropic's $100 Billion Al Compute Commitment | CFO Krishna Rao

POSITIONS · 1

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ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic compounding 10x revenue per year on frontier model demand, raising $125B+ to fund it—IDEA›

IDEAS · 4

GOOGOOGLLONGAnthropic's TPU buy makes Google/Broadcom the picks-and-shovels winners of its compute boom$355.95-6.57%›AMZAMZNLONGAnthropic's 5GW Trainium deal makes Amazon a core compute winner of the AI buildout$267.54-1.26%›NVDNVDALONGAnthropic stays the only lab using all 3 chip platforms, keeping NVIDIA in the mix$197.94-10.86%›AVGAVGOLONGBroadcom rides Anthropic's 5GW custom-TPU deal as the silicon partner behind the chips$381.49-9.95%›

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2mo

How Brian Chesky Is Redesigning Airbnb for the AI Era

POSITIONS · 1

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ABNABNBLONGAirbnb stock has been flat because the core is saturating; reinvention into 50+ verticals is the rerate path$148.63+6.00%›

IDEAS · 1

GOOGOOGLLONGConsumer AI is the next big prize; incumbents are all chasing enterprise, leaving the field open in 12-24 months$355.95-8.30%›

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3mo

The Supply and Demand of AI Tokens | Dylan Patel Interview

IDEAS · 9

MUMULONGMemory prices double or triple again from here; capacity can't grow fast enough until 2028.$808.75+70.44%›TSMTSMLONGTSMC could spend $100B on CapEx by 2028, whipping its equipment suppliers harder than anyone expects.$395.78+3.56%›LRCLRCXLONGSemiconductor equipment makers get the tail-whip from TSMC's surging CapEx; still underappreciated.$297.28+9.70%›ASMASMLLONGASML completely sold out; Carl Zeiss is the bottleneck on expanding lithography supply.$1,623.05+14.57%›

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3mo

GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution

IDEAS · 6

NVONVOLONGOral Wegovy at $150/mo launches 4x faster than injectables; GLP-1 class blows past $100B/yr revenue.$47.17+18.58%›LLYLLYLONGEli Lilly's anti-amyloid plus tirzepatide franchise: early-intervention data this year could be a major catalyst.$1,129.64+22.37%›AMGAMGNLONGPCSK9 inhibitors are a near free-lunch cholesterol cut; long term they should outgrow GLP-1s.$385.50+11.97%›PFEPFELONGPfizer's once-monthly GLP-1 acquisition positions it in the dosing-frequency race that drives compliance.$25.25-10.22%›

+2 more ideas →

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3mo

From SpaceX to Founders Fund to Solving America's Nuclear Fuel Problem

IDEAS · 1

CCJCCJLONGThe 2028 Russian uranium import ban removes 25% of US supply, tightening enriched uranium markets.$85.32-25.68%›

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3mo

What 100 Years of American Finance Tells Us About Today

IDEAS · 2

BXBXSHORTFactory-model private credit firms face redemptions and reckoning as wealth-channel mismatches surface, hitting their stocks.$128.71-12.44%›BXBXLONGPrivate credit dislocation stays contained, not systemic, because the economy is strong and the channel is only 5 years old.$128.71+12.44%›

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4mo

Why Now is the Best Time to Buy Public Software Companies

IDEAS · 3

IGVIGVLONGPublic software names offer the best risk-adjusted returns now because the market hates the whole sector.$92.76+8.24%›NVDNVDASHORTThe AI CapEx boom ends badly; spending math doesn't pencil and that crash is the buying signal.$197.94-11.22%›DDODDOGLONGDatadog-style consumption infra software keeps compounding as AI agents burn more resources than people.$267.35+104.24%›

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4mo

How to bet on yourself (without venture capital)

IDEAS · 3

USAUSA500LONGThe biggest, fattest, most inefficient legacy banks become AI's largest beneficiaries, not AI startups.—IDEA›PLTPLTRLONGValue in the AI era accrues to whoever owns massive distribution, not to AI companies themselves.$125.76-17.34%›SP5SP500LONGLong the US: a company can become a billion-dollar business serving only America, a structural edge.$7,347.21+9.50%›

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4mo

How AI Is Changing Warfare | Palantir CTO

POSITIONS · 1

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PLTPLTRLONGPalantir captures AI value at the ontology layer as model companies commoditize and apps reinvent its stack.$125.76-19.69%›

IDEAS · 2

NOCNOCLONGUS defense primes are undervalued; fixing cost-plus incentives could rerate them far above 2x revenue.$533.15-28.10%›TSLTSLALONGUS reindustrialization is a structural megatrend with AI as the lever to make domestic production viable.$309.72-21.07%›

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4mo

The World's Greatest Energy Trader on Markets, China, and AI

IDEAS · 4

LITLITLONGLithium prices up 50%+ in months feed straight into higher battery costs, undercutting storage economics$2.09+62.58%›FLNFLNCLONGAdvanced geothermal could be the most exciting US energy industry in 5 years as it rides down the cost curve$14.14-8.75%›TANTANSHORTSolar PPA prices are 50%+ off 2020 lows as land, labor, capital costs swamp falling panel prices$49.90+6.22%›VSTVSTLONGData center power demand is locked in through 2030 as the richest companies ever fund the buildout today$145.62-12.40%›

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5mo

Inside Dan Sundheim's Bets on Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX

POSITIONS · 2

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ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic is winning AI by going all-in on enterprise coding, now the market leader where it once looked like the No. 2 player—IDEA›OPEOPENAILONGOpenAI's do-everything strategy risks mastering nothing, but its consumer lead and coming ads engine make it a durable winner—IDEA›

IDEAS · 8

ITAITALONGEuropean defense spending will accelerate as geopolitical landscape shifts, with Japan also becoming a military power$242.49-0.87%›AMZAMZNSHORTHyperscalers face shrinking margins as AI labs insource their own compute and customer base concentrates to a few players$267.54-29.00%›IGVIGVSHORTSoftware stocks become a worse business and the first real AI short as vibe-coding erodes everything but systems of record$92.76-20.22%›CRWCRWVLONGNeoclouds survive and matter because they run GPU clusters and inference better than traditional hyperscalers$71.14-20.40%›

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5mo

The Secretive PE Firm Behind Burger King, Tim Hortons, Skechers and Hunter Douglas (3G Capital)

POSITIONS · 1

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QSRQSRLONGRestaurant Brands International is a high-FCF royalty machine that grew from 12k to 30k+ restaurants.$73.05+3.45%›

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5mo

Why The Laws of Startup Physics Have Changed | Ben Horowitz Interview

IDEAS · 6

CRMCRMLONGIncumbent enterprise software like Salesforce and SAP survives AI disruption; selloff overdone$188.01-11.76%›METMETALONGScarce AI researchers command billion-dollar pay because only ~40 can build frontier models$565.06-19.90%›SP5SP500LONGUS tech and economy accelerate over next 12-24 months as AI deploys without infrastructure lag$7,347.21+6.47%›BTCBTCLONGBitcoin and crypto remain the fastest wealth-creation path for those with little capital$62,989.50-19.53%›

+2 more ideas →

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6mo

He Built The Revenue Engines for Google, Facebook & Square

POSITIONS · 1

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FIGFIGLONGFigma wins bottoms-up via self-serve, infiltrating even incumbent-locked design teams; durable insurgent.$24.15-19.35%›

IDEAS · 9

CRMCRMSHORTShort half-life data makes Slack vulnerable; AI can rebuild it and siphon its value, despite Salesforce ownership.$188.01+18.66%›ORCORCLLONGERP systems like NetSuite (Oracle) are insulated; no one rips out the system that runs their whole business.$127.39-23.74%›OPEOPENAILONGChatGPT combines intent and identity data, the dream of advertising; OpenAI ads business will be massive.—IDEA›APPAPPLONGAppLovin controls the mobile app install ad stack end to end; durable outcome-delivery ad engine.$403.97-26.46%›

+5 more ideas →

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6mo

The Netflix Culture Code That Changed Entertainment Forever | Reed Hastings Interview

POSITIONS · 2

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NFLNFLXLONGNetflix still has only 10% of US TV time, so the subscriber and revenue runway is years long.$70.24-24.71%›ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic is growing so fast its trajectory stands out even to a seasoned tech board member.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 1

GOOGOOGLLONGYouTube is a real substitution threat to Netflix, set to grab more time as AI creators improve.$355.95+11.83%›

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7mo

Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview

POSITIONS · 8

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DUODUOLLONGDuolingo was purpose-built for AI, so it ships products 20x faster and turns a point app into a learning suite.$133.64-29.60%›AFRAFRMLONGAffirm can keep growing fast without adding headcount by using AI to lean out legal and compliance processes.$70.26+8.20%›CIGCIGILONGColliers is mispriced as a cyclical real estate broker but is really a strong asset manager and consulting firm.$97.19-31.80%›FSVFSVLONGFirstService compounds through superior human capital and capital allocation despite owning no obvious moat.$143.20-8.57%›TOSTOSTLONGToast is a durable holding that successfully made the transition to profitability and discipline.$32.94-6.48%›DASDASHLONGDoorDash is a durable compounder Durable held from private through public markets.$199.19-14.62%›CVNCVNALONGCarvana's hard-to-replicate physical reconditioning centers form a durable moat in used cars.$60.97-32.19%›FIGFIGLONGFigma is a durable holding Durable backed private through its IPO and still owns as a compounder.$24.15-30.26%›

IDEAS · 3

DHRDHRLONGDanaher compounds at 20% for 40 years through its business system and capital allocation, not a single moat.$194.63-14.27%›AMZAMZNLONGRobotics riders that get on the steep cost-down curve early build power-law moats rivals can't catch.$267.54+21.15%›DPZDPZLONGAI lets already-strong physical distributors lower costs and convert the lead into a permanent moat.$353.03-21.19%›

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7mo

GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview

POSITIONS · 3

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GOOGOOGLSHORTGoogle's pre-training edge fades as Blackwell models arrive, ending its low-cost-token oxygen-sucking strategy$355.95-11.36%›NVDNVDALONGNvidia's annual GPU cadence and full-stack lead widen the gap versus all ASICs once Blackwell and Rubin ship$197.94+5.88%›AVGAVGOSHORTBroadcom's TPU margins get squeezed as Google brings ASIC work in-house and adds MediaTek$381.49+3.88%›

IDEAS · 11

OPEOPENAISHORTOpenAI is a high-cost token producer with $1.4T commitments, structurally squeezed by cheaper rivals—IDEA›ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic earns credit burning far less cash and growing faster, aided by Google/Amazon chip deals—IDEA›METMETASHORTMeta lags badly on frontier models, dragging ROIC and the stock despite heavy CapEx$565.06+13.73%›CHRCHRWLONGC.H. Robinson shows AI lifting non-tech Fortune 500 earnings, a template for the broad market$149.43-3.42%›

+7 more ideas →

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8mo

How a16z Growth Invests

IDEAS · 4

OPEOPENAILONGChatGPT goes proactive and multimodal, monetizing far more of its billion users to become a massive company—IDEA›GOOGOOGLLONGAI foundation models become like cloud, multiple durable winners with real profit pools, not winner take all$355.95+10.33%›CRMCRMSHORTAI startups with reimagined UI, new data and new business model can finally rip out Salesforce$188.01+18.06%›AAPAAPLLONGHigh growth above 30% is structurally underpriced because models can't capture persistent growth$302.89+6.15%›

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8mo

Inside General Atlantic: How a $100B Growth Equity Firm Invests

POSITIONS · 2

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ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic code-gen revenue went $200M to $4B in 12 months, the killer app GA pounces on.—IDEA›XPXPLONGXP took Brazil from 80k stock owners to 10 million, the dominant investing platform GA backed early.$17.25-0.90%›

IDEAS · 4

VXUVXUSLONGUS equities at 26x earnings and 2-sigma rich dollar make ex-US the trade for the next decade.$83.06+11.91%›SP5SP500SHORTUS debt path higher than Greece plus no recession since 2009 means froth in US stocks, lighten up.$7,347.21-7.61%›XYZXYZ100LONGAI CapEx funded by cash-rich Magnificent Six, not junk debt, so the wave has more legs.$27,858.69+10.16%›BABBABALONGTensions stabilizing and cheap valuations mean China innovation is worth picking up after years underweight.$123.34-21.85%›

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8mo

Ari Emanuel’s "Anti-AI" Bet on Live Entertainment

POSITIONS · 1

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TKOTKOLONGLive events become the scarce, AI-proof asset; their value rises as content costs collapse to zero$183.34-4.20%›

IDEAS · 1

TSLTSLALONGBet on Elon across his companies; sheer will makes them work even through brutal stretches$309.72-21.35%›

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9mo

China vs America: The Battle for Global Dominance Explained | Dan Wang interview

IDEAS · 2

BABBABALONGByteDance and Alibaba throw off huge cash but stay cheap because the Party can smite them and Taiwan risk looms.$123.34-24.07%›NVDNVDALONGUS still leads AI on compute, but China's power buildout and talent make the next 5 years a toss-up.$197.94+8.22%›

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9mo

The Future of AI Agents | Jesse Zhang Interview

IDEAS · 1

GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle wins AI because consumer reach feeds the data flywheel rivals like Anthropic lack.$355.95+43.81%›

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10mo

Inside the Trillion-Dollar AI Buildout | Dylan Patel Interview

IDEAS · 8

NVDNVDALONGNVIDIA captures all the gross profit in the AI buildout while holding zero downstream risk, so it keeps winning.$197.94+10.60%›ORCORCLLONGOracle makes $100B+ profit if OpenAI pays its $300B deal, but its value tanks if OpenAI can't pay.$127.39-54.42%›METMETALONGMeta has the full stack, hardware, models, serving, and recommendation, to own the next computing interface.$565.06-24.05%›GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle is waking up on every front, TPUs, models, and infrastructure, and is well positioned to win consumer and pro.$355.95+48.09%›

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10mo

How Barry Diller Built Entertainment Empires

POSITIONS · 2

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MGMMGMLONGMGM is AI-proof: a physical Vegas resort empire no tech can disintermediate between guest and experience.$43.93+29.27%›IACIACLONGIAC's People/DotDash can build a giant company by inverting media into the products its content predicts.$41.87+20.01%›

IDEAS · 3

NVDNVDASHORTMassive AI capex with no known revenue is the trap to avoid; be wary of the cat's meow.$197.94-9.25%›GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle search dependence is fast becoming an extinction event for publishers as AI eats search traffic.$355.95+41.12%›NFLNFLXLONGNetflix won; Hollywood and the old studio model are irrelevant as making content drops down the totem pole.$70.24-41.77%›

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10mo

5 Ingredients for the Perfect Investment | Jeff Horing Interview

IDEAS · 1

MSFMSFTLONGAI is a TAM accelerator for established software, not a killer, legacy apps get bigger not displaced$472.28-9.58%›

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11mo

The CEO Who Cheated Death, Slept an Hour a Night, and Built a Healthcare Empire

POSITIONS · 1

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OSCOSCRLONGOscar's AI-native platform and ACA-only focus let it grab share from giants resigned to losing the market.$30.61+87.49%›

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0y

The Data on America's Economic Split | Andrew Milgram Interview

IDEAS · 2

SP5SP500LONGTariffs benefit large public companies; the ticker-tape economy can ride the regime up.$7,347.21+15.36%›AREARESLONGBest-in-class private credit firms keep winning on first-look deal flow and credit culture.$125.61-33.86%›

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1y

The Investment Firm That Can 'Do Anything' | Sixth Street CEO Alan Waxman

IDEAS · 3

BXBXLONGWealth-channel money floods private markets, taking allocations from 3-5% toward pension-like 40-50%$128.71-22.84%›NVDNVDALONGData center demand driven by AI power constraints is a multi-year build-out theme$197.94+22.82%›AFRAFRMLONGAffirm-style asset originators scale faster via off-balance-sheet JVs, boosting their operating leverage$70.26+9.77%›

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1y

Clear's Turnaround from Bankruptcy to IPO with CEO Caryn Seidman Becker

POSITIONS · 1

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YOUYOULONGClear is at the earliest stage of becoming the default identity platform across travel, sports, healthcare and commerce.$56.17+92.34%›

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1y

How Jens Grede Hacked Pop Culture to Build a Billion-Dollar Brand

IDEAS · 4

VSCVSCOLONGVictoria's Secret is fine while Wall Street still works the dead-brand thesis from 2020.$55.21+194.06%›DRIDRILONGComfort and nostalgia brands are booming as fearful consumers clamor for what feels safe.$207.05-6.08%›GAPGAPLONGBanana Republic is having its best year in decades on the nostalgia-comfort wave.$19.70-8.18%›RDDRDDTLONGThe individual voice keeps gaining power over institutions in a post-truth, AI media world.$137.76-7.24%›

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1y

The Chainsmokers’ Journey from DJs to VCs

POSITIONS · 1

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PEPPEPLONGPoppi reinvented the soda category, a 30x winner blending CPG with tech-style forward thinking.$141.31+11.83%›

IDEAS · 1

SPOSPOTLONGAI training on copyrighted art is the new Napster moment; fighting it loses, building the Spotify of AI wins.$508.21-29.25%›

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1y

Why This Veteran Venture Capitalist Avoids AI Hype | Jay Hoag Interview

POSITIONS · 1

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NFLNFLXLONGNetflix is the model consumer compounder that grows through any recession on near-zero subscriber churn$70.24-43.69%›

IDEAS · 1

SPOSPOTLONGConsumer internet is abandoned for AI and SaaS, leaving mispriced private opportunities for contrarians$508.21-28.21%›

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1y

The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private with Bill Gurley

IDEAS · 3

BXBXSHORTYale and other endowments selling PE secondaries could trigger a private-market pricing fallout.$128.71+11.95%›BABBABALONGChina going fully open-source on AI models creates a powerful self-training flywheel the US won't match.$123.34+2.59%›BTCBTCLONGBlockchain tokenization could bypass the IPO discount and fix the broken public listing process.$62,989.50-42.93%›

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1y

How Apollo Built an $800 Billion Capital Markets Giant | John Zito Interview

POSITIONS · 2

ILInvest Like the Best

APOAPOLONGApollo's principal-aligned model and credit origination machine win the structural shift in capital markets.$128.16-4.02%›CVNCVNALONGCarvana was a coercive restructuring turned win; bonds exchanged at 90 traded to 120 and equity exploded.$60.97-9.89%›

IDEAS · 3

EZUEZULONGEurope ramps defense and infra spending plus securitization reform, lifting growth and multiples after a lost decade.$69.00+14.19%›SP5SP500LONGUS keeps its monopolistic edge in capital markets via rule of law, talent and lower cost of capital, sustaining premium multiples.$7,347.21+26.09%›COICOINLONGPrivate assets steadily get more liquid via secondaries, exchanges and tokenization, narrowing illiquidity discounts.$144.51-41.58%›

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1y

How Graham Weaver Turns Recent Grads Into CEOs

IDEAS · 1

BXBXLONGGiant PE platforms that can tap retail wealth channels win the next decade of asset gathering.$128.71-6.61%›

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1y

Spotify’s Journey To Profitability

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SPOSPOTLONGMusic industry is structurally undervalued; paid subscribers go from ~500M to billions, multiplying the pie.$508.21-22.26%›

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MSFMSFTLONGAI inference is a real marginal cost, forcing consumer products toward tiering by how much compute users want.$472.28+2.46%›NVDNVDALONGFalling inference cost expands demand faster than the price drop, so compute demand grows without limit.$197.94+45.05%›

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1y

The Obsession That Creates Enduring Companies | David Senra Interview

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VIRVIRTLONGDurable elevated-volatility regime keeps market-maker spreads and volumes high, lifting Virtu's trading income.$59.36+43.10%›MNSMNSTLONGFounder-led beverage brands with pricing power are undervalued; category consolidation forces upward re-rating.$95.07+53.63%›

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1y

Investor Details Carvana's Wild Ride From -99% To Market Leader | Cliff Sosin Interview

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CVNCVNALONGCarvana is the most efficient used-car retailer with widening moats, and margins still climbing toward 13-14%.$60.97+22.30%›

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CCLCCLLONGCruise lines are Cournot oligopolies with fixed supply, so operators hold pricing power and earn monopoly-like profits.$27.47+49.37%›PMPMLONGNicotine creates the strongest secondary reinforcers, so cigarette and vaping brands earn the highest margins and loyalty.$188.76+12.79%›URIURILONGConstruction equipment rental is a Cournot oligopoly with inelastic demand, supporting durable high returns.$1,060.86+67.41%›

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1y

Finding the Next Figma, Wiz, & Stripe Before It's Obvious | Neil Mehta Interview

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CPNCPNGLONGCoupang's 1P delivery flywheel makes it the best e-commerce experience on earth, a long compounder.$15.93-24.77%›CVNCVNALONGCarvana avoids bankruptcy and grows units many times over, so the stock recovers from near-zero.$60.97+44.93%›

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1y

Michael Ovitz - Turning Potential Into Prominence

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DISDISLONGIf original creative talent is the true bottleneck, owned franchise libraries become the scarce moat and re-rate up.$96.30+17.63%›

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1y

The AI Lab Revolutionizing Smell

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IFFIFFLONGPublicly traded fragrance houses are recession-proof, high-margin, sticky-customer businesses worth owning.$77.54-3.69%›

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1y

Kelly Granat - Investing At Lone Pine

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METMETALONGMeta wins AI at the application layer, commercializing core products at scale; large position pays off.$565.06-8.19%›TDGTDGLONGAerospace OEM and aftermarket parts compound on rising air travel; pricing power, sole-source, low capital.$1,269.19-3.38%›

IDEAS · 3

APOAPOLONGAlternative asset managers re-rate as a new public asset class the market still misvalues; carry is underpriced.$128.16-2.93%›DASDASHLONGReal cost of capital splits winners from losers; long disciplined operators, short the laggards.$199.19+7.01%›LYFLYFTSHORTLyft loses to Uber as the cost-of-capital regime exposes the weaker operator; short the laggard.$15.99-38.88%›

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1y

Jared Kushner - The Mechanic

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QXOQXOLONGQXO compounds big behind Brad Jacobs rolling up building-products distribution; already up sharply, more capital coming.$13.41-12.94%›

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SP5SP500LONGTrump's pragmatic, accessible style means firms that engage respectfully unlock favorable outcomes; bullish for deal-making US equities.$7,347.21+22.55%›