“Oracle is making a massive bet... he signed a $300 billion deal with OpenAI.”
Oracle makes $100B+ profit if OpenAI pays its $300B deal, but its value tanks if OpenAI can't pay.
“OpenAI slash its partner spends $50 billion on the data center... $35 goes into NVIDIA. NVIDIA's gross margin is 75%.”
NVIDIA captures all the gross profit in the AI buildout while holding zero downstream risk, so it keeps winning.
“The other end of the spectrum is what Nebius just signed. I'm signing fucking $19 billion to Microsoft.”
Nebius signed a ~$19B Microsoft GPU deal with huge gross profit and a buyer safer than US Treasuries.
“US economy kind of freefalls, right? 'Cause we can't make refrigerators without Taiwanese chips. We can't make cars. We can't make AI data centers.”
TSMC is a buy despite Taiwan risk because if Taiwan falls, you can't own Apple, Google, or Microsoft either.
“I'm not really a big bull on the accelerator companies, I've never been. Companies make competing with NVIDIA... not a big bull on those kinds of companies.”
AMD is mid: too many things to do and not enough of a leap to challenge NVIDIA's accelerator dominance.
“I was pretty bearish Google like 2 years ago, but I'm like super bullish Google... They're waking up on every front. You know, they're taking the TPUs,…”
Google is waking up on every front, TPUs, models, and infrastructure, and is well positioned to win consumer and pro.
“I think Meta's got the cards to potentially like own it all... the next paradigm in human-computer interface is we don't actually have to touch it at all. We…”
Meta has the full stack, hardware, models, serving, and recommendation, to own the next computing interface.
“now you add this AI part of it, you've now added a humongous COGS, right? Your cost of goods sold in any AI software is really hard and really big.”
Software-only SaaS faces a reckoning: AI sends COGS soaring while customer acquisition costs stay high.