“the semiconductors are now the largest weight at a level 2 GIC in the S&P 500 at 17% and growing. That is not a bubble.”
Semis are the new largest S&P weight and still early innings; long the AI physical-buildout basket
“I do not want to own a single SaaS software. I think you are wasting your time trying to spend time on software playing for this mean reversion.”
Code-based SaaS is a dead asset; agentic AI destroys the seat-based model, avoid software
“debt-to-equity will rise. It's not good for them. That's why I say be short the hyperscalers, all of them … Are they going to go up as much as the S&P?”
Hyperscalers are the funding vehicle; their capex and ROIC drag means they lag the S&P
“The oil shock that dwarfs history won't have a rapid recovery. … The demand has not been impacted.”
A historically large oil shock with no fast recovery keeps crude elevated, repricing US energy producers higher.
“We are going to get CPI above 4%... When we get CPI above 4, I don't think the Fed is raising rates, but that will be above 3-month bills.”
CPI heading above 4% with negative real yields; 1970s-style bottlenecks and force majeure
“If the Iran situation was having an impact, you'd see the metals going down. They're not going down.”
Copper holding all-time-high territory; industry leaders bullish, Iran shock not denting metals
“silver is part of my thematic portfolio … it's lagging here, which means it's a great entry point in my opinion”
Silver lagging the basket is a great entry; China imported the most ever in March
“Texas Instruments is a demand barometer for the industrial economy. … Comments about AI-related sensing and power needs suggest that AI workloads are starting…”
AI demand pulls into industrial and edge; Texas Instruments is the barometer breaking out
“CPU demand is being pulled not just by cloud but also by enterprise AI deployments that rely on CPU-heavy systems.”
Intel rerating on CPU pull-through from cloud and enterprise edge AI deployments
“PowerSemis is a real-time story. It's in the very, very early beginnings. … they haven't even seen their earnings grow in a meaningful way.”
Power-semi earnings ramp on AI data-center and electrification demand isn't in estimates yet; pure-play re-rates higher.
“optical necessary for inference. This is why we've got coherent and light and Corning.”
Optical transceiver shortage; Corning and optical names ride inference demand
“optical necessary for inference. This is why we've got coherent and light and Corning.”
Optical is necessary for inference; silicon photonics leader Marvell rides power-efficiency race
“the credit cycle is in the early stages of deleveraging … a very large default this week in Medallia”
Private credit in early deleveraging; large defaults imperil BDC lenders, stay short
“because of the Middle East conflict and what has happened with the regional oil energy prices being different…”
Chemicals offer opportunity as Middle East conflict reshapes regional oil and energy prices
“I believe Bitcoin has made a bottom. The MACD weeklies are going— if I'm right, this should start moving at some point and get up to this level…”
Bitcoin has bottomed near 2024 levels and runs to 95-100k as inflation and rising PMIs hit
“It involves gold, that is the store of value side slash when everything is breaking down, where do we go hide our money? … I think gold is going higher.”
Gold goes higher as a store-of-value hedge while everything else breaks down
“includes copper, that is the PMI side … I think copper is going higher”
Copper goes higher as PMIs rise and the industrial AI buildout pulls demand
“I think the Qs are going higher. I don't think the Qs are going higher because of the hyperscalers.”
Nasdaq grinds higher led by biotech and semis, not the hyperscalers