“Alex, you were saying that your highest conviction position is Anthropic right now.”
Anthropic's coding lead and oligopoly position drive 10x sales growth into a multi-trillion AI market
“Gemini can never be counted out. We love Google. As well. It's one of our largest positions.”
Google's Gemini stays a top-3 model winner, justifying it as one of the firm's largest positions
“When we were buying NVIDIA in 2023, we were paying 4 times earnings.”
NVIDIA rides 10x annual AI compute growth with the world structurally short on chips for years
“what was scary for OpenAI and Anthropic fighting these big companies like Google was they had these huge cash cows and to both of the management teams, credit…”
OpenAI's improving enterprise and coding plus recursive improvement give it a top-3 model position
“We basically sold almost all of our software, almost all of our application software. We still have one or two small ones, but entering this year we were…”
Enterprise application software gets squeezed and disrupted by AI, justifying a net short
“memory, which used to be a pure commodity, this high-bandwidth memory is a stack 10 chips on top, you know, the input outputs are 10x what they were before,…”
High-bandwidth memory decommoditizes as AI demand leaves DRAM and NAND 30% short
“we noticed they were the sole supplier of the Google TPU server and we're like, oh my God, this was like 3 years ago. Stock was trading at 8 times earnings”
Celestica goes from commodity contract maker to critical AI infrastructure with 50-60% Ethernet share
“You find these companies like Corning, like they make the fiber. They've got some ridiculously high share of the fiber. I was reading this Microsoft data…”
Corning's dominant high-spec fiber share rides scale-out and a 2-3x copper-to-fiber switch upside
“in the power supplies, every Nvidia chip or rack uses 50 to 125% more power. And like literally that drives the ASPs of Delta and Advanced Energy.”
Delta and Advanced Energy ASPs climb 40% a year as each Nvidia chip needs far more power
“NVIDIA sure is, and TSMC is really levered to it and Hynix is extremely levered to it and ASML is levered to it. So it's a great, so that's a new, we're 4…”
TSMC and ASML are deeply levered to the AI chip super-cycle as mega-cap holdings