“When you start to see sub-indices like the semiconductor index go up, you know, 70-plus percent year-to-date, things like this…”
Semiconductor index up 70%+ YTD is classic over-investing; parabolic AI moves set up a correction
“the sellers usually pick the time that is optimal for them … they are picking a high.”
Mega tech IPOs are sellers picking the top; expect 40%+ drawdowns post-IPO before any recovery
“people are, you know, have a $1.6 trillion plus valuation on Tesla... that doesn't mean you pay a price that really maybe isn't the appropriate price for a…”
Tesla near $1.6T at ~370x earnings prices in perfection; any delivery or margin miss re-rates it sharply lower.
“If businesses on Main Street... figure that, hey, you know, AI, you know, it's added value, but maybe not as much, this is costing me a lot of money…”
If Main Street AI ROI disappoints, the capex-equals-revenue bet cracks and Nvidia's premium re-rates down.
“You can again look at YouTube, you can look at their search business, you can look at their AI business and, you know, Waymo and so forth.”
Alphabet is a serious moat business growing above the economy across search, YouTube, AI and Waymo
“when they're compressing their margins, it's because they're reinvesting back in the business to grab more market share … what's the probability that capital…”
Amazon trades with hidden value: reinvestment depresses margins but compounds market share and returns
“they dominate through much of South America … they're investing a lot back in their business”
MercadoLibre dominates South America, undervalued because reinvestment depresses near-term earnings
“we own one company, Sprott. We own Sprott Inc., which again controls a lot of ETFs. We think it's a great way to play the whole commodity space.”
Sprott is undervalued play on the commodity space and a strong takeout candidate via its brand