“revenue did grow 45% year over year … the stock still reacted negatively because Meili's margins were down…”
MercadoLibre's 45% revenue growth and Amazon-style reinvestment make today's margin dip a buying point, not a flaw.
“the earnings power is beyond anything that we've seen with Amazon in the last 10 years … the true earnings power is still vastly underappreciated.”
Amazon below $200 is cheap as AWS, robotics and ad growth set up earnings power beyond anything in 10 years.
“The business results they're publishing are largely very good, but the market is much more concerned about these AI investments that they're making...”
Meta's good results are masked by AI spend fears, but internal compute demand makes the payoff likely.
“over three-quarters of Constellation's revenues actually come from maintenance. So customers pay for ongoing support with the systems…”
AI fears are overblown for Constellation; maintenance revenue and switching costs protect it
“they could do 2 to 4 deals a year … and still compound at 20% plus”
Lumine compounds at 20%+ from a tiny base via low-competition carve-outs, shielded from law of large numbers
“Topicus is probably an option to invest in a somewhat younger and less mature CSI … with the option to benefit from the European market tailwinds that I've…”
Topicus is a younger less mature Constellation copy with European market tailwinds to compound faster
“I think insourcing might actually be a problem … if I'm a huge Fortune 500 company, I can hire software engineers that through Claude might have the ability…”
Fortune 500 customers insource CRM with AI coders, eroding seats and retention, so the moat multiple compresses.
“Hermès is really targeting the top 1% … You could probably argue it's the top 0.1% of the population…”
Hermes after a 40% pullback is one of the best opportunities, targeting the recession-proof top 0.1%