bubble boi — sniff.trade

bubble boi

44 episodes · 57 trades · 1 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@bubbleboi

4w

You heard that @Chegg https://t.co/bfd3UA1Wdi

IDEAS · 1

CHGCHGGLONGChegg pivots into AI model training data sales, repricing a beaten-down edtech stock as an AI infrastructure play$0.97-15.73%›

@bubbleboi

4w

The CPO spectrum switches do not work. They do not work. I know everyone who has them i…

IDEAS · 1

NVDNVDASHORTNVIDIA's CPO Spectrum-X switches can't be powered on in the field, threatening the networking revenue ramp that underpins NVDA's valuation.$198.92-2.88%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Complete speculation here but what if the government just underwrites all of Intel’s Ca…

IDEAS · 1

INTINTCLONGPolitical insider buying + government capex backstop speculation point to further INTC re-rating$88.08-31.94%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

All the hyperscalars could quickly force memory prices down if they form a consortium s…

IDEAS · 1

MUMUSHORTHyperscaler consortium/SPV could weaponize collective buying power to crush DRAM prices, gutting Micron's margins$810.63+29.07%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

*Narrator* in fact it was the exact opposite leading ASPs of memory to go down and hype…

IDEAS · 1

DRADRAMSHORTMemory ASP deflation is coming, not the Korean capex boom the bulls expect, pressuring memory maker revenues$51.09+27.98%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

This. This is the perfect example of sellside analyst brain. “I don’t see it in the la…

IDEAS · 2

NOKNOKSHORTNokia trades at 88x PE but optical, its only growth engine, is just 15% of revenue; the rest is flat or declining$9.01+30.86%›LITLITELONGLumentum is 100% pure-play optical growing 90% YoY with 32% margins and two unramped product cycles, yet trades at a similar market cap to Nokia$722.44-10.52%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

He gets it https://t.co/FOb2BOqFwl

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDASHORTOpenAI's Jalapeño ASIC erodes Nvidia's GPU inference monopoly as top AI labs design their own silicon$198.92-1.65%›AVGAVGOLONGBroadcom is the silicon kingmaker for custom AI ASICs, now adding OpenAI to Google, Meta, and ByteDance on a multi-generation roadmap$379.92+5.17%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

What we are seeing is the equivalent of your house being on fire and the fire fighters …

IDEAS · 2

MUMUSHORTDRAM incumbents' cartel pricing collapses as Chinese supply floods the market by 2027, dragging Micron's revenues lower$810.63+29.56%›SNDSNDKLONGFlash/NAND gains memory market share as DRAM cartel pricing pushes buyers toward cheaper flash alternatives by 2027$1,238.84-39.33%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

this is a good thing https://t.co/ER0RZQpscr

IDEAS · 1

PLTPLTRSHORTOpenAI IPO delay signals agentic AI hype peak; Palantir at 98x forward earnings is the most stretched pure-play to reprice$124.76-12.43%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

F*cking David Tepper. Of course he went balls deep memory and semis. Of course he d…

IDEAS · 2

MUMULONGTepper's Appaloosa holds MU as its #1 position at $1.75B; blowout Q3 earnings and sold-out HBM supply make it the cleanest AI memory trade$810.63-28.03%›TSMTSMLONGTepper added 197,500 TSM shares in Q1 2026 as his #4 position; TSMC is the irreplaceable manufacturer for every major AI chip, with full-year 2026 revenue expected to rise over 30%$394.79-7.36%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Nvidia looking like a great short right about now. Rubin ramp looking shaky, networking…

IDEAS · 1

NVDNVDASHORTRubin GPU delays, weakening networking momentum, and rising ASIC/TPU competition converge to pressure Nvidia's premium valuation$198.92-4.51%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

We are pivoting Cerebras my suggestions are making the way to the board for approval. …

IDEAS · 1

CBRCBRSLONGbubbleboi claims to be influencing CBRS board toward a strategic pivot to unlock undervalued IP, implying a positive re-rating ahead.$200.70+17.21%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

China’s CXMT Is Set to Challenge DRAM Incumbents CXMT IPO, SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung Co…

IDEAS · 1

SKHSKHXLONGCXMT's commodity DRAM rise spares SK Hynix, whose HBM dominance makes it the supercycle's biggest winner—IDEA›

@bubbleboi

1mo

😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫 https://t.co/VRmcwq9Cna

IDEAS · 2

MUMUSHORTShort Micron vol into earnings — author bets the event move will be smaller than options pricing implies.$810.63+33.17%›LRCLRCXLONGLong Lam Research vol as a hedge offset against the short Micron vol position — author expects LRCX options to expand.$294.78-26.93%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Btw I am shorting micron event vol into earnings. I am offsetting it with a long vol po…

IDEAS · 2

MUMUSHORTMicron's earnings-implied vol is overpriced; short vol profits if MU moves less than options price in post-earnings$810.63+21.76%›LRCLRCXLONGLam Research vol is underpriced relative to Micron's; long vol position hedges the short-MU-event-vol leg$294.78-18.02%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

It’s true !!! https://t.co/SD5eZ6XqU0

IDEAS · 1

NBINBISLONGInference is becoming the largest market in the world; NBIS is the tightest public proxy for inference infrastructure.$187.50-26.48%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

I wonder how EDA companies will interpret this. Do you think OpenAI will try to sell t…

IDEAS · 1

SNPSNPSSHORTAI models are automating chip design workflows at OpenAI and Google, threatening the core revenue of EDA software incumbents like Synopsys$385.80+15.84%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

It’s glorified IT consulting https://t.co/qOc8RhdVQO

IDEAS · 3

AVGAVGOSHORTAVGO's AI co-design premium is peaking as hyperscalers move in-house; TSM allocation, not design expertise, was the real moat all along.$379.92-0.27%›TSMTSMLONGTSMC is the irreplaceable chokepoint in AI chips; hyperscalers going direct to TSM bypasses co-designers and concentrates more pricing power and revenue at the foundry.$394.79-9.56%›LITLITELONGOptical interconnects will grow from near-zero to 30% of the AI data center interconnect mix in 2-3 years as rack-to-rack distances scale beyond copper's reach.$722.44-15.52%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

If only there was an AI lab that made a whole post about how AI for biotech has a data …

IDEAS · 1

RXRRXRXLONGRecursion's petabyte-scale standardized cell data solves the exact bottleneck blocking AI in drug discovery$3.03-5.29%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

This guy is probably going to destroy more value than he’s ever created and yet he’s a …

IDEAS · 1

CBRCBRSSHORTCerebras CEO will destroy shareholder value from a bubble-priced post-IPO valuation; target $0$200.70-0.86%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Semi Visualizers by Zuhair

IDEAS · 1

INTINTCLONGIntel 18A-P enters risk production with industry-first dual-contact architecture and top-tier customer wins, validating Intel Foundry as a credible advanced node competitor.$88.08-32.45%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Semi Visualizers by Zuhair

IDEAS · 1

INTINTCLONGIntel's 18A-P entering risk production with Apple as anchor customer re-rates INTC as a credible foundry challenger$88.08-32.38%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Up another 8% premarket let’s get it. https://t.co/Dtq5TNE1GT

IDEAS · 1

SNRSNROFLONGSanrio's character IP becomes a premium AI training data asset, fueling a re-rating of its licensing business.$8.04+43.06%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Ok Nasdaq has bottom expect market to reverse in the morning. You are welcome. 🤗

IDEAS · 1

XYZXYZ100LONGNasdaq has bottomed; market set to reverse upward by next morning session$27,980.91-3.47%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

At every market bottom I post an inspirational quote. This one will be no different. ht…

IDEAS · 1

SP5SP500LONGAuthor calls a market bottom, signaling broad equity recovery from current levels.$7,353.97+1.19%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 820 POINTS GOD HELP US !!!

IDEAS · 1

XYZXYZ100SHORTNASDAQ 100 drops 820 points in a single session as Alphabet and AI hyperscalers dump on capex fears, opening further downside.$27,980.91+4.05%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

This is getting scary. https://t.co/KfjHDSRH7I

IDEAS · 1

XYZXYZ100SHORTNQ selling off hard -2.56% intraday; author's 10-contract short is printing, signaling further downside.$27,980.91+3.98%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Bro micron will fucking kill the stock market on Wednesday. That anthropic deal is a la…

IDEAS · 1

MUMUSHORTMicron earnings on Wed June 24 will disappoint a hyped-up market — the Anthropic deal is a pre-earnings pump, not a fundamental re-rating$810.63+28.80%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

KOSPI DOWN 8% HOLY SHIIIIIIIIT

IDEAS · 1

EWYEWYSHORTKOSPI crashes 8%+ in chip-led forced unwind; Korean equity index is in freefall$157.80+20.25%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Oh no it’s over. https://t.co/roF8GJtQDs

IDEAS · 2

EWYEWYSHORTKOSPI circuit-breaker crash of 8.11% signals acute stress in Korean equities; EWY falls in sympathy$157.80+19.94%›XYZXYZ100SHORTNasdaq 100 futures down 1.74% in a global risk-off session driven by Korean crash and Middle East energy shock$27,980.91+7.24%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Shit is getting so bad I had to open up the Bloomie and see what’s going on. God damn…

IDEAS · 1

JPYJPYSHORTUSD/JPY at 40-year highs; BoJ rate hike pressure + Katayama-Bessent intervention talks set to send yen sharply higher$153.62+6.70%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

The best trade on earth right now is going long the yen. Scott Bessi will save it, I kn…

IDEAS · 1

JPYJPYSHORTBessent's active defense of the yen via swap lines and intervention will push USDJPY lower (yen stronger)$153.62+6.49%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

In the name of the Controller, the Persistent, the Non-Volatile. They radicalized me t…

IDEAS · 1

SNDSNDKLONGNAND flash prices are exploding and Jevons Paradox guarantees demand grows faster than supply — SanDisk, the pure-play, wins$1,238.84-42.51%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

*knocks on sign* https://t.co/wNFYo9T2Cu https://t.co/ofhEVFHsYK

IDEAS · 3

SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix pivots to commodity DRAM where margins are now 15+ ppts higher than HBM, driving earnings upgrades—IDEA›MUMULONGCommodity DRAM supply crunch drives 62% ASP surge in 2026; Micron earnings in two days with fully contracted HBM supply and an Anthropic deal$810.63-31.14%›SMSSMSNLONGSamsung gains HBM market share as SK Hynix throttles HBM4 ramp and Samsung masses HBM4 production in H2 2026—IDEA›

@bubbleboi

1mo

😂😂😂 https://t.co/ofhEVFHsYK

IDEAS · 2

MUMULONGCommodity DRAM margins exploding past HBM — Micron earnings in days with DRAM ASPs up 62% and Anthropic supply deal signed$810.63-32.59%›SMSSMSNLONGSK Hynix voluntarily slows HBM4 ramp, opening the door for Samsung to close the gap and capture share in H2 2026—IDEA›

@bubbleboi

1mo

So let me get this straight. Micron is paying for Claude enterprise, investing in Ant…

IDEAS · 1

MUMUSHORTMicron is round-tripping its own AI demand (paying Anthropic to buy its memory) and locking long-term contracts mid-shortage — a tell of fear, not pricing power; the DRAM up-cycle is topping and MU re-rates lower.$810.63+33.92%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Micron should focus on making good memory and leave the speculation to me. Massively …

IDEAS · 1

MUMUSHORTMicron's Anthropic deal is PR hype not fundamental uplift — the 5%+ pop is a fade$810.63+34.62%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Sandisk에서 NAND(160) 위에 프로세서(174)를 배치시키는 기술에 대해 등록 받았습니다. 실제 제품 양산까지 이어진다면, NAND 업체들의 위…

IDEAS · 1

SNDSNDKLONGSanDisk's compute-on-NAND patent re-rates it from commodity flash maker to compute-platform contender, lifting its long-run multiple.$1,238.84-43.29%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

This is almost like saying any company associated with PCIe will go bananas. This misse…

IDEAS · 2

ALAALABLONGAstera Labs owns the only full-stack CXL play; its switch + software moat compounds as the scale-up interconnect market grows$309.07-29.57%›MRVMRVLSHORTMarvell is mispriced as an ASIC powerhouse when ASIC design is commodity IT outsourcing with no real moat$184.28+40.15%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Dw guys. I will do a hostile take over if they even try to stop the fab. https://t.co…

IDEAS · 1

INTINTCLONGIntel's CEO is winning the fight to keep its foundry alive, with Nvidia, Apple, and the US government all now backing the bet — stock re-rates as a real fab player.$88.08-38.56%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

Sanrio is up over 8% since I tweeted it but even more importantly is my thesis was vali…

IDEAS · 1

NTDNTDOYLONGClassic IP holders get re-rated as AI training-data royalty engines; Nintendo's all-IP portfolio is the purest play on this shift.$11.96+11.30%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

It’s looking like a great time to get some far otm far out on the curve oil protection …

IDEAS · 1

WTIWTISHORTOil is elevated on a geopolitical risk premium that is already fading, making tail-risk protection cheap and asymmetric right now.$87.52-11.95%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

This is all lies. It’s a Frankenstein machine using a canon stage and an old EUV sour…

IDEAS · 1

ASMASMLLONGASML wrongly fingered for China EUV leak; upgrade cycle drives real revenue growth$1,644.03-15.65%›

@bubbleboi

1mo

If Intel closes above $134 it means we are hitting $140 very soon.

IDEAS · 1

INTINTCLONGIntel breaking above $134 resistance signals a run to $140 very soon$88.08-34.40%›