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“semiconductors as a percentage of the S&P 500 … is now almost 20% of the market by itself”
@Thoughtful Money · Lance Roberts
Semiconductors are parabolic and concentrated, due for a hard mean reversion; take profits and hedge now.
SMHSHORT@ $676.08
$530.50+21.53%
since call Jun 20
peak +24.8%
“that's all leveraged ETFs. So all the retail buying is in the most speculative sectors of the market.”
@Thoughtful Money · Lance Roberts
Retail crowded into 3x semi leverage at the top; a tech unwind triggers daily-reset decay that craters SOXL.
SOXLSHORT@ $276.86
$112.57+59.34%
since call Jun 20
peak +67.1%
44:30SHORT
“inflation was hot in this last report, 4.2% is almost all oil related. Now with oil back down into the 70s…”
@Thoughtful Money · Lance Roberts
Oil deflation kills the inflation scare; recent hot prints reverse as oil sits in the 70s
WTISHORT@ $78.63
$87.94-11.84%
since call Jun 20
“there'll be no cuts this year. Oil prices will come down. … I don't think they cut until we start to see the demand destruction side show up on the economics.”
@Thoughtful Money · Lance Roberts
Warsh Fed wont hike or cut; oil-driven inflation fades but no cut without demand destruction
SHYLONG@ $83.71
$81.89-2.17%
since call Jun 20
100:48SHORT
“I think your big risk is in semiconductors. Those stocks have gotten way, way ahead of themselves. We're now pricing in 2028 earnings.”
@Thoughtful Money · Lance Roberts
Semiconductors price in 2028-2029 earnings already; overbought sector is the biggest near-term downside risk
SOXXSHORT@ $633.30
$495.83+21.71%
since call Jun 20
peak +27.3%
“I would take profits. I would hedge. Hedging is cheap right now. Adding value stocks is cheap. Holding a little bit of extra cash is opportunistic.”
@Thoughtful Money · Lance Roberts
Value stocks are cheap relative to overbought tech and worth adding as a rotation hedge
IVELONG@ $227.43
$235.74+3.66%
since call Jun 20
peak +3.7%
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