Thoughtful Money — sniff.trade

Thoughtful Money

Adam Taggart interviews macro and markets experts on the economy, rates, gold, commodities, and equities.

17 episodes · 155 trades · 10 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@Thoughtful Money

3d

Longtime Deflationist Now Fears Inflation More | Lacy Hunt

IDEAS · 2

TLTTLTSHORTLong-term Treasury yields will rise as capital shortages and structural inflation drive up all components of the Fisher equation.$82.15+2.94%›USOUSOLONGOil prices historically trend higher over the long term as the baseline inflation rate shifts upward.$127.08+0.16%›

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5d

As Tech Trade Falters, Value Stocks Are Breaking Out | David Hay

IDEAS · 17

XLEXLELONGEnergy equities offer massive upside as physical oil shortages persist and the sector remains deeply neglected despite tying tech for five-year returns.$60.84+3.46%›EOGEOGLONGEOG Resources is on the cusp of a multi-year breakout with an undemanding valuation of just 10 times earnings.$150.43+4.83%›XLKXLKSHORTThe tech sector is entering a major shakeout reminiscent of March 2000 as companies report strong earnings but their stocks still get clobbered.$179.13-3.20%›URNURNMLONGUranium faces a severe supply shortage as secondary inventories vanish and new mine development takes up to a decade while demand surges.$47.92-4.63%›

+13 more ideas →

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6d

Cracks Starting To Show In The Market? | Lance Roberts

IDEAS · 7

GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle's 34% operating margin and 82% cloud revenue growth make it a premier long-term investment despite temporary free cash flow dips.$355.26+10.99%›MSFMSFTLONGMicrosoft's proven track record of shaping markets ensures its massive AI infrastructure investments will yield future cash flows.$473.69+22.05%›AMZAMZNLONGAmazon's stable credit spreads prove its fundamental strength, making it a safe long-term hold immune to the credit risks hitting tech.$267.79+16.69%›AAPAAPLLONGApple's lack of credit spread blowout confirms its foundational stability, making it a core wealth-compounding position to buy on dips.$303.89-6.52%›

+3 more ideas →

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1w

Rick Rule: Oil Is Going Higher In Coming Years, Making Oil Stocks CHEAP Right Now

IDEAS · 14

USOUSOLONGOil faces a massive structural shortage by the end of the decade due to 30 years of underinvestment and deferred sustaining capital.$127.08-6.27%›MPMPLONGMountain Pass is a prime speculative winner as massive government grants flood the domestic critical minerals sector with dumb money.$40.72+0.17%›CPECPERLONGCopper is the safest way to play the three-decade underinvestment in natural resources without the extreme volatility of minor metals.$39.92+2.08%›XOMXOMLONGExxon is the de-risked way to play the structural oil shortage, boasting a 30-year track record of maintaining sustaining capital.$156.93-1.97%›

+10 more ideas →

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3w

The Danger With SpaceX | Eric Jackson

IDEAS · 6

NVDNVDALONGNvidia remains reasonably priced because it generates actual earnings, avoiding the hyper-speculation seen in dotcom-era hardware stocks.$197.92+1.01%›SPYSPYLONGThe broader market avoids dotcom-era calamity as current speculation levels sit at a mere three out of ten compared to the late 90s.$738.93-1.17%›SMHSMHLONGMemory stocks will surge as AI models require massive hardware upgrades to retain user context across sessions.$535.71-6.35%›OPEOPENLONGOpendoor is a long-term compounder heading to $82 by 2028, driven by a highly committed CEO who left Shopify to lead the mission.$3.73-22.54%›

+2 more ideas →

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3w

Fourth Turning To Turn The Dollar Into A Wrecking Ball? | George Gammon

IDEAS · 16

UUPUUPLONGThe US dollar faces a structural upward death spiral because global dollar-denominated debt creates a constant, inescapable bid.$28.58+0.92%›LENLENSHORTLennar faces a lose-lose macro setup where rising rates crush affordability and falling rates signal economic deterioration.$81.37+5.58%›SPYSPYLONGThe S&P 500 serves as a necessary long hedge to protect against systemic melt-ups when shorting vulnerable individual stocks.$738.93-1.64%›MSTMSTRSHORTMicroStrategy faces a forced-liquidation spiral as its dollar-denominated liabilities compel the sale of billions in Bitcoin.$91.74+6.72%›

+12 more ideas →

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3w

Sky-High Earnings Expectations Courting Disaster? | Lance Roberts

IDEAS · 6

SPYSPYLONGThe broader market is poised to break out of its recent price compression to the upside as momentum indicators trigger a buy signal.$738.93-0.79%›AAPAAPLLONGApple is positioned to beat lowered earnings expectations as the bar for the Mag 7 has been significantly reduced heading into reporting season.$303.89-1.67%›AMZAMZNLONGAmazon is positioned to beat lowered earnings expectations as the bar for the Mag 7 has been significantly reduced heading into reporting season.$267.79+8.65%›MSFMSFTLONGMicrosoft is positioned to beat lowered earnings expectations as the bar for the Mag 7 has been significantly reduced heading into reporting season.$386.74-0.96%›

+2 more ideas →

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4w

Longtime Bull Sees "High" Risk Of Market Correction Soon | Darius Dale

IDEAS · 5

SPYSPYSHORTThe broader market faces a high probability of a 1998-style correction over the next one to two quarters.$744.78-0.37%›IEFIEFSHORTThe 10-year Treasury yield will reprice well north of 5% as reduced Fed communication inflates the term premium.$94.18-0.09%›TLTTLTSHORTUS Treasuries face a structural supply-demand imbalance as foreign creditors reduce demand while US deficit issuance accelerates.$82.15+4.48%›BTCBTCLONGBitcoin is a mandatory buy under $60,000 as markets will soon realize the Fed is less hawkish on its balance sheet than feared.$62,974+2.11%›

+1 more ideas →

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4w

Things To Fall Apart After The Mid-Terms? | Stephanie Pomboy

IDEAS · 12

USOUSOLONGOil is set to edge higher for years as global strategic petroleum reserves are depleted and countries rush to rebuild their stockpiles.$127.08+24.17%›XLEXLELONGEnergy producers are a tremendous buy as the world enters a secular rotation from paper to hard assets and AI capex drives power demand.$60.84+12.36%›BIZBIZDSHORTThe BDC index is heading lower as private equity portfolio companies struggle with interest expenses and undergo glorified defaults.$12.30+2.58%›MSFMSFTSHORTMicrosoft is transitioning from a cash cow to a net borrower as massive AI infrastructure spending burns through its free cash flow.$390.49-1.16%›

+8 more ideas →

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4w

There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave

IDEAS · 9

KBEKBELONGBanks benefit from a steeper yield curve in an inflationary boom environment.$69.31+4.16%›ILFILFLONGLatin American assets are deeply undervalued and poised for a rerating driven by rightward political shifts.$34.99+1.80%›TLTTLTSHORTGovernment bonds are dead money as massive fiscal stimulus eliminates the risk of a deflationary bust.$82.15+3.75%›GLDGLDLONGMetals are a core portfolio allocation to capture the upside of an ongoing inflationary boom driven by massive fiscal deficits.$369.90-1.43%›

+5 more ideas →

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4w

"The Blow-up Is Going To Be Spectacular" | Lance Roberts

POSITIONS · 1

LRLance Roberts

MGKMGKLONGFactor rotation flips back to mega-caps from value as semis go parabolic and crowd rotates$85.17-0.79%›

IDEAS · 11

SMHSMHSHORTSemis are a cyclical commodity trade priced for infinite growth, due for a major reversion$535.71+14.20%›MAGMAGSLONGMag 7 are stable low-multiple earnings growers that will reabsorb capital when semis reverse$65.68+8.05%›SP5SP500SHORTRecord margin debt on leveraged ETFs and options sets up a spectacular blowup$735.02+0.62%›NVDNVDALONGAI infrastructure trade has 12-18 months left before overbuild forces a shift to revenue side$197.92+3.23%›

+7 more ideas →

@Thoughtful Money

1mo

Is The Market Dangerously Expensive Now? | Kevin Muir

POSITIONS · 5

KMKevin Muir

XLEXLELONGEnergy stocks are dirt cheap, pay dividends, and rally when AI semis correct$60.84+14.50%›CNQCNQLONGCanadian oil sands producers win on astronomically long reserve life$48.47+25.59%›GOLGOLDLONGGold stays bid for years as People's Bank of China keeps diversifying reserves$369.90-0.46%›GDXGDXLONGGold miners are dirt cheap and beat the metal itself from here$72.89-6.89%›SILSILVERLONGSilver near a bottom after giving back half its rhino-horn run, days from a reversal, hold the position$58.13+11.29%›

IDEAS · 8

SP5SP500SHORTS&P priced for perfection with inverted equity risk premium points to a lost decade of returns$735.02+0.77%›SOXSOXXSHORTSemis are the ultimate cyclical and this AI cycle rolls over faster than Wall Street assumes$496.50+17.22%›NVDNVDASHORTThe 3-month AI rally rests on a token mirage of forced internal usage that will reverse and trigger a crash$197.92-1.51%›AMZAMZNSHORTAI lifts small private mom-and-pops over big public incumbents, making Amazon worth less$267.79-13.41%›

+4 more ideas →

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1mo

Where Is The Bottom For Gold & Silver? | Andy Schectman

POSITIONS · 1

ASAndy Schectman

SILSILVERLONGSilver sold off below $60 but record physical deliveries show manipulation breaking down; strong hands accumulating, price recovers$58.13-3.23%›

IDEAS · 2

SISILONGSilver and gold are near a bottom; under $60 silver and below $4,000 gold shook out the speculation$22.62+11.81%›GOLGOLDLONGGold near a bottom; breaking $4,000 marks the washout level after the selloff from highs$4,039.37+2.50%›

@Thoughtful Money

1mo

Did The AI Bubble Just "Jump The Shark" With The SpaceX IPO? | Chris Irons, Quoth The Raven

POSITIONS · 1

CIChris Irons

RSPRSPLONGEqual-weighted S&P sidesteps the AI/SpaceX concentration risk and cushions the coming blow$211.58-1.17%›

IDEAS · 3

SPCSPCXSHORTSpaceX at $2T+ on 100x sales is a giant air pocket that will correct and could go systemic$108.33+31.30%›TSLTSLASHORTTesla at 300x earnings is a declining legacy automaker priced on Elon premium alone$309.10+20.41%›BMNBMNRSHORTTom Lee's leveraged Ethereum bet via BMNR is deep underwater and pure marketing$17.28-14.36%›

@Thoughtful Money

1mo

Rick Rule: These Commodities Are Mind-Bogglingly Underpriced

IDEAS · 5

URNURNMLONGUranium is the only 24/7 carbon-free, energy-dense fuel for AI, plus an energy-security catalyst, near-certain to rise$47.92-20.07%›XLEXLELONGOil underinvestment of $1B+/day means any drop from triple digits is temporary, structurally higher prices ahead$60.84+15.12%›CCJCCJLONGCameco is the fastest-progressing nuclear company having bought Westinghouse, leveraged to the uranium and reactor boom$85.24-21.34%›GDXGDXLONGMining and oil stocks trade below NPV of ore at today's prices, with AI efficiency upside priced at zero$72.89-13.28%›

+1 more ideas →

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1mo

A Sell-Off In Tech Is The Biggest Near-Term Risk To Markets Right Now | Lance Roberts

IDEAS · 6

SMHSMHSHORTSemiconductors are parabolic and concentrated, due for a hard mean reversion; take profits and hedge now.$535.71+20.76%›SHYSHYLONGWarsh Fed wont hike or cut; oil-driven inflation fades but no cut without demand destruction$82.91-0.96%›WTIWTISHORTOil deflation kills the inflation scare; recent hot prints reverse as oil sits in the 70s$88.68-12.79%›SOXSOXXSHORTSemiconductors price in 2028-2029 earnings already; overbought sector is the biggest near-term downside risk$496.50+21.60%›

+2 more ideas →

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1mo

DEBATE | Mark Newton & Jonathan Krinsky On Where The Market Is Headed For The Rest Of 2026

IDEAS · 18

SOXSOXXSHORTSemis are 2x the biggest up year ever and most stretched vs NASDAQ in history, set to unwind$496.50+23.64%›WTIWTISHORTCrude rolling over sharply on Iran peace deal; cycles say it keeps dropping$88.68-19.35%›XBIXBILONGBiotech breaking out to 5-year highs into a seasonally bullish healthcare window$146.80+5.09%›KBEKBELONGBanks breaking out at highs lead the rotation as breadth broadens$69.31+4.00%›

+14 more ideas →