Hide in short-term Treasuries yielding 4.09% to shield your portfolio from an inevitable geopolitical shock that will shatter this 42x PE market.
The Fed will hold rates steady in 2026, contrary to a bond market that is currently pricing in hikes.
The looming threat of a 10 to 15% pre-election market correction forces investors to park cash in short-duration bonds to shield their portfolios.
The Fed slashed its forward guidance word count from 340 to 170, injecting massive volatility into short-end Treasuries and driving front-end yields higher.
Warsh Fed wont hike or cut; oil-driven inflation fades but no cut without demand destruction
Inflation is broadening beyond oil and labor is full; the Fed pivots to hikes, repricing the curve.
Tariff core-goods inflation is a one-time shock that fades, reviving front-end disinflation and pulling 1-3Y yields down.
Yield curve bear-flattens by mid-year as falling liquidity lifts safe-asset demand
Front-end pricing of Fed hikes is offside, Fed will look through oil and likely cut a few times this year