“Google Cloud revenue 63% year over year”
Google won the AI capex debate: Search +19%, Cloud +63%, backlog doubled to $460B, full-stack play.
“AWS is reaccelerating. … They came in at 28%, so they beat on AWS growth. And that's really, really important”
AWS reaccelerating to 28% growth and chips crossing $20B run rate justify Amazon's record CapEx.
“If Meta's capex buys the same compute at higher prices, the supply chain captures it; TSMC's pricing power wins.”
If Meta's capex buys the same compute at higher prices, the supply chain captures it; TSMC's pricing power wins.
“Meta, it's got to show up in the AI figures. It's got to show up in the ad business … there's not an easy place to just like stuff compute necessarily and at least get a market standard return on inve”
Meta's CapEx raise has no clean monetization path; market can't price the AGI bet, stock down ~10%.
“I continue to think it just strengthens the incumbents. … these platforms will just get more content on them that will probably be LLM-generated, LLM-enhanced”
LLMs deepen engagement on the dominant social network instead of spawning a rival, so the incumbent compounds.
“Stablecoin regulatory clarity turns USDC into core payment rails; Circle is the listed pure-play beneficiary.”
Stablecoin regulatory clarity turns USDC into core payment rails; Circle is the listed pure-play beneficiary.
“grades are dropping or deposits are getting deeper, mineralogies are getting more complex, and it just means it's going to be a lot harder to make copper in the future.”
Falling ore grades and deeper deposits make new copper harder to mine while electrification demand climbs, lifting price.
“we jumped into lithium when lithium was like at the bottom of its recent trough … we want to work on metals that we think have a long-term supply-demand imbalance.”
Lithium bottomed mid-2025; trough underinvestment plus EV and storage demand sets up a structural deficit and reprice.
“OpenAI and Anthropic are around 2 gigawatts in terms of capacity … Zuck's building something in the 1 gigawatt range. There's gigawatt a week weak plans.”
AI compute demand measured in gigawatts forces a baseload power buildout, tightening uranium and lifting miners.