“Coding is now ubiquitous. Software companies are forever changed and most of them will die.”
Traditional SaaS multiples keep compressing as AI agents replace the software-as-a-service model.
“the only way Bitcoin can get to a million is that it needs to be the only growth engine that is not disrupted from AI … It needs to watch everyone else get…”
Bitcoin breaks free and heads to a million once AI agents snap its correlation to dying SaaS.
“Why does a company need to say, standardized Salesforce if an agent is just gonna query data and leads on your behalf.”
Salesforce gets hit hardest as agents make CRM form-and-workflow software unnecessary.
“130% year over year”
Palantir wins the agents-as-a-service layer; 130% commercial growth makes it a buy on the dip.
“you're talking to someone who said he thought the Russell 2000 would be up over 50 to 60% this year while the Mag 7 is flat … Small caps, baby.”
Russell 2000 small caps rip 50-60% this year while Mag 7 stays flat as money broadens out.
“Energy, 3.3%. Materials, 2%. You come back in 5 years, these numbers are going to be significantly higher.”
Energy and materials' tiny S&P weight surges over five years as money rotates into commodities.
“now I'm telling you my viewpoint is that they are done as the multiples they have, and the multiples have to come down.”
Mag 7 capex outruns cash flow and forces P/E de-rating, so the equal-weight Nasdaq beats the top-heavy one.
“my PMI calls that I was saying beginning in August when I wrote a paper saying PMIs will break above 50, we rocketed above 50...”
ISM manufacturing PMI heads back toward 60 over the next 3-5 years after historic breakout above 50.
“Here is my favorite that I've pitched, which is the equal weight semis … and you should expect this thing to go up violently.”
Equal-weight semis with analog names like Teradyne and Lattice go up violently on AI demand cycle.
“I've highlighted Corning as an optical fiber trade … you should expect this thing to go up violently.”
Corning goes up violently on optical fiber plus glass screens from the AI upgrade cycle.
“So again, I bring this up because the AI infrastructure trade is big tech spend. We're going to spend $650 billion. I don't think it's good for the Mag Seven.”
AI CapEx boom flows to semis, power, cooling and materials, not the Mag Seven spending the money
“But in the case of Micron, again, the PE finishing this week is under 10 off this year's earnings. This year's— like, forget it.”
Micron sub-10 PE on this year's earnings with the fastest earnings growth ever from $90T shift
“Trump's doing stockpiling, China's doing stockpiling … invest in critical minerals, of which silver, copper are included.”
Copper shortage plus stockpiling makes copper a core AI-materials trade
“China is restricting any exports of silver … governments were looking into stockpiling critical minerals”
Silver supply shortage and government stockpiling drive prices despite volatile swings
“Truflation, less than 1% this week. Truflation is a real thing... until gas at the pump goes higher…”
Disinflation then deflation is the real risk, not inflation, despite consensus fears
“I believe the currency, the bonds, and the equities will be in lockstep this year, and commodities will be in lockstep as well.”
Brazil currency, bonds and equities move in lockstep up with commodities this year
“So you have to do your homework on the edge and where the edge is gonna work, the on-premise, the Ciscos, the routers, the— there's so many other companies…”
Edge AI rollout starting this year benefits on-prem, routing and edge chip names
“I ordered 2 Mac Minis and a Mac Studio because I'm gonna run this stuff … That's why the Mac Minis are selling and that's why the Studios are selling.”
Apple Mac Mini/Studio demand rises as users run local open-source AI agents