“the 126th day … rate of change of the S&P, which broke through zero on Friday”
S&P broke its 6-month rate-of-change below zero, a signal that preceded every recession, yet nobody fears one
“financials are the worst performing sector, now down 11% year to date … we had not had a time this century going back to 1999 where financials had broken…”
Financials broke below a downward-sloping 200-day, the worst sector, and the S&P always follows them down
“this is all about compute, the scarcest economic resource … you need to be long it”
Stay long compute: AI is in a scarcity stage, demand far exceeds supply, the buildout will not be cancelled
“Year-over-year CPI this time is going to go higher … oil goes higher, everything tends to go, and the inflation numbers tend to surprise on the upside”
Oil through everything plus war disruptions mean year-over-year CPI surges, killing rate cuts and pricing tightening
“there's absolutely no way that the airlines are not going to be impacted in a major way from what's going on … right now we're up at $167”
A doubling of unhedged jet fuel compresses margins across the whole airline group, not just Delta.
“it isn't just about the Strait of Hormuz, it's about the damage that's being done … the IEA said it could take 6 months to restore oil flows from the Gulf”
Oil is spiking across every benchmark from Hormuz and energy-facility damage the IEA says takes 6 months to fix
“26% is software and 11% is professional services … there's no way that these books reflect the risk that's coming in the next few years from the software side”
Private credit stress is accelerating with software-heavy books facing AI disruption and reflexive runs
“Life insurers will be part of this. They hold more private credit than ever. And again, most of the private equity companies have captive insurers.”
Life insurers hold more private credit than ever, so their stocks break down as those loans sour
“Rates vol— I've talked about this being the factor where I think you're going to get more deleveraging…”
Long VIX: rates vol and deleveraging from leveraged cross-asset portfolios should push volatility higher
“Palantir has an advantage in this … as you move to an economy of trillions of agents, your AI operations are secure, auditable…”
Palantir wins enterprise AI orchestration as firms struggle to deploy agents at scale
“all long-duration assets on businesses that are not going to be able to compete in AI are going to be in trouble.”
Short long-duration assets of businesses that can't compete in AI as moats erode
“The commodity boom. Take advantage of the weakness you're going to see in silver, in copper during this period like this.”
Buy commodity weakness; silver and copper needed for the AI buildout will run higher
“Take advantage of the weakness you're going to see in silver, in copper during this period like this”
Copper rallies as AI buildout demand meets industrial supply; buy the dips
“We've got a buy signal from Renmac in terms of the excessive short positions on Bitcoin … Only thing above the 50-day right now is Bitcoin and Ethereum.”
Bitcoin set up for snapback from excessive short positioning despite near-term S&P risk
“A Warsh-led Fed shrinks the balance sheet and stops backstopping long bonds, so long-duration Treasuries fall.”
A Warsh-led Fed shrinks the balance sheet and stops backstopping long bonds, so long-duration Treasuries fall.