“the complacency to the potential of us being there for more than a month, 2 months in terms of having prices elevated … it's not just a question of how…”
Strait of Hormuz closure keeps oil elevated for months, far longer than the market's quick-fade assumption
“now the futures are all the way up here at $4. So we still have to go. This is overlaid with CPI year over year. So we are gonna see a significant rise in CPI”
Gasoline at the pump runs toward $4 as RBOB futures lead, dragging CPI year-over-year sharply higher
“we've taken out rate cuts, we're looking at rate hikes. All of these things matter, and these are not temporary shifts where you can just fade them”
Rate cuts get priced out and rate hikes priced in as inflation expectations spike, sending yields higher globally
“this is the 6th contract of the VIX, which I've said repeatedly, I said it this week on the subscriber webinar that I expect this to get up to 30 before this…”
VIX climbs to 30 as private credit unwind and turbulence force volatility higher beneath a quiet index
“If we start to build in the possibility that we're going to have a resumption of inflation vol … we have to continue to move multiple compression into the S&P…”
S&P multiple compression concentrated in tech as inflation vol returns and AI free cash flow story breaks
“The global market would outperform. And the reason is everything that we're seeing, the disruption from AI, the unwind of the credit…”
Global ex-US equities outperform the US as AI disruption and credit unwind hit US mega-cap multiples
“How many people miss the Micron trade? How many people miss the Nvidia trade?... when this stuff goes higher…”
Semis keep working as exponential AI demand and memory and hardware shortages drive prices higher
“I've never seen in my career a credit situation that is deteriorating at this kind of pace that just ends on its own.”
Private credit BDCs slide further as redemptions get gated and back leverage gets pulled by banks
“every single one of the Goldman Sachs moves … Every one of these guys had some sort of help from the government”
Goldman Sachs falls further as financials lead a credit deleveraging with no government backstop yet
“the Mag 7 broke below the 200-day moving average for the first time since there … every single one of them is underperforming the S&P”
Mag 7 underperforms as the basket breaks the 200-day for the first time since Liberation Week
“if we don't see adoption pick up at a faster pace, if the costs keep going higher and the data center delays continue…”
Meta falls further on free cash flow fears as AI costs surge, data centers delay and 20% layoffs loom
“One of it is moving to localized edge inference … I do believe that that is a major investment side away from the GPU-centric side”
Inference moving to the edge pulls CPU and memory demand; memory is the supply-constrained bottleneck that re-rates.
“CPUs are cool again. Intel and AMD reporting spikes in CPU demand due to AI, agentic AI shortages”
CPU makers benefit as agentic AI drives a CPU and edge inference demand spike, away from GPU-centric
“CPUs are cool again … the names you want to be buying into any dip that happens here. One of them reported last week. Intel.”
Buy CPU/advanced-packaging names like Intel into dips as compute shifts away from GPUs
“Bitcoin would separate itself from anything built on code … this piece goes through why the private credit side is basically setting you up for Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin separates from code-based assets as the purest AI trade and growth play amid private credit stress
“stablecoin payments are doubling to around $400 billion … Agents will be doing the majority of them.”
Stablecoin adoption decouples from crypto cycles as AI agents transact in USDC, lifting Circle's float and revenue.