“Software is in the early stages of a re-rating. … legacy SaaS has a short window to convert RPO to revenue.”
Software is in early stages of a re-rating lower as RPOs can't convert to revenue fast enough
“I do think you're going to see energy prices move higher at a time when everyone is bearish on them. … I'd rather be in the energy trade for this year.”
Energy is the trade of the year as power scarcity drives prices higher while everyone is bearish
“Number 2, capital goods. Number 3, materials. If this doesn't scream the physical upgrade that we've been talking about, nothing will.”
Capital goods and materials lead as the physical upgrade of the AI buildout accelerates
“gold had its best month in the last 15 years, even with the collapses on Friday.”
Gold rises as the scarcity trade and a falling dollar drive its best month in 15 years
“the amount of metals needed for AI is insane. In particular, in the silver side, it's in every single component.”
Silver goes parabolic as it is a scarce critical mineral in every AI component and in solar, not just precious metal
“You're going to have a pullback … the copper-silver story, which is needed for electricity, and the fact that we have supply shocks”
Copper rises on AI electricity demand and supply shocks, despite a pullback
“This is the overlay of that chart with EWZ, Brazil. Brazil, Brazil, I can't emphasize it enough...”
Brazil rises on the green compute arbitrage of the AI decade, biggest rise since 2020
“Chevron versus Salesforce.com. … If you were smart enough to put this trade on and follow my lead, you're up 45% this month.”
Long Chevron short Salesforce captures the scarcity over abundance divergence, already up 45% this month
“XSD or any of the package things that I did, which are more the analog names, I do think those names can double this year.”
Analog and smaller semi names can double this year as chip shortage persists
“I do think for anything related to AI and software and code, I'd be very, very wary that OpenAI, that XAI, that Anthropic…”
A record AI/growth IPO wave floods the growth bucket; high-multiple disruptive-tech names compress like Blackstone 2007.
“best case scenario, I can't imagine Micron more than doubling. I can imagine battery names more than doubling.”
Battery names can more than double over two years on the AI and electrification buildout
“The earnings per share beat by almost 100% … The guidance, 13 versus 4.21. When in history have you seen those types of numbers?”
SanDisk runs as memory shortage drives massive earnings beats and guidance
“Do you really want to be long software when everyone is talking about the fact that we don't have enough chips … we need as much chips as we can.”
ASML benefits as the chip shortage drives continued demand for lithography equipment
“Apple shares surge on 16% on staggering iPhone demand”
Apple rises on staggering iPhone demand before memory price spikes raise device costs
“Bitcoin is far, far, far more prepared for agent— AI agent swarms than JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs and any of the banks you want.”
Bitcoin becomes a refuge from AI agent swarm risk to legacy banks, once it breaks out
“Optical fiber is the emerging physical bottleneck. … We're not even in the big phase of Corning. This is before the glass build-out.”
Corning runs as optical fiber becomes the next physical bottleneck in the AI buildout
“I do not believe that the Mag 7 can get you the alpha that is necessary. I think there's a lot of headwinds for them.”
The Mag 7 bloc loses its premium as capex debt, IPO supply, and RPO overhangs erode the free-cash-flow story.