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ASM

ASML

27 tracked calls · 20 long · 7 short · last 90d: 15L/6S
first called by Dwarkesh Podcast 2y ago
IN TRACKED PORTFOLIOS
David TepperSELL
ASMASMLLONG1w ago
“The people receiving the money are up a lot in the mix of chaos... If you're receiving AI money, you are good... ASML, you're good.”
ThreadGuy

Hyperscalers like Google are torching over $200 billion on AI infrastructure, so buy the hardware suppliers catching that massive cash wave.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,769
$1,625-8.16%
since call Jul 23
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ASMASMLLONG2w ago
“ASML is clearly a beneficiary of the AI boom. It reported a strong quarter. It beat on EPS and revenue and it raised guidance and the stock was up”
The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman

ASML is cashing in on the AI boom by selling the machines that print chips, beating estimates with $8.69 in EPS and raising its revenue guidance.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,766
$1,625-7.98%
since call Jul 17
peak +0.5%
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ASMASMLLONG2w ago
“What the bear case tends to underweight is that none of this has kept the machine from selling. ASML had ten to twenty High-NA orders booked by early 2024...”
More Than Moore · Dr. Ian Cutress

ASML is shattering bear market cost concerns by already booking 10 to 20 orders for its next generation chip machines and scaling production to 20 per year.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,750
$1,625-7.19%
since call Jul 16
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ASMASMLSHORT4w ago
“ASML and making lithography machines, that people don't even think about the possibility of like, what if there were other companies that could do what they do? ... And there are so many incentives fo”
TBPN

Extreme supply chain concentration will shatter ASML's chip-printing monopoly as 1 massive bottleneck forces new competitors to build rival technologies.

ASMASMLSHORT@ $1,755
$1,625+7.45%
since call Jul 2
peak +12.9%
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ASMASMLLONG4w ago
“Photonics looks busted, meanwhile equipment suppliers (e.g., Applied Materials, ASML) and chemical/material stocks remain strong.”
P Equity Research 📰

Semiconductor equipment suppliers named as staying strong while photonics craters; ASML is the dominant named pick with structural WFE tailwinds.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,786.13
$1,624.57-9.05%
since call Jun 28
peak +1.9%
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ASMASMLLONG4w ago
“It's beautiful.”
high cagr

ASML is the sole maker of EUV machines, the irreplaceable bottleneck for all advanced chip production.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,774.01
$1,624.57-8.42%
since call Jun 28
peak +1.9%
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ASMASMLSHORT4w ago
“Haven't really seen it with equipment yet.”
P Equity Research 📰

Semi-equipment stocks have yet to face their correction; when it comes, capital won't rotate back into Nvidia — it bleeds sideways and amplifies the broader selloff

ASMASMLSHORT@ $1,812.48
$1,624.57+10.37%
since call Jun 27
peak +14.2%
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ASMASMLSHORT1mo ago
“Looks like the next China-US export control showdown is near MATCH Act has been added to NDAA FY27 Things will start getting interesting after House passes it i”
Zephyr

MATCH Act cuts ASML off from 29% of its revenue by blocking tool sales and servicing to Chinese fabs

ASMASMLSHORT@ $1,801.88
$1,624.57+9.84%
since call Jun 24
peak +13.3%
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ASMASMLSHORT1mo ago
“MATCH Act has been added to NDAA FY27”
Zephyr

MATCH Act in NDAA FY27 threatens ASML's ~29% China revenue as full DUV blockade advances toward House floor vote in July.

ASMASMLSHORT@ $1,779.21
$1,624.57+8.69%
since call Jun 24
peak +13.0%
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ASMASMLLONG1mo ago
“The three clearest beneficiaries remain: Advanced Node Equipment: ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC”
AU🧲

Global WFE spend nearly doubles by 2028 per JPMorgan; ASML as the sole EUV supplier captures every advanced node dollar spent worldwide

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,761.33
$1,624.57-7.76%
since call Jun 24
peak +2.5%
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ASMASMLLONG1mo ago
“In addition to building P5 Fabs 1 and 2 simultaneously, Samsung Electronics is expanding the production capacity of each of its bases in various ways.”
Jukan

Samsung's accelerated P5 Fab 2 construction floods the order books of lithography and equipment suppliers like ASML.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,996.91
$1,624.57-18.65%
since call Jun 21
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ASMASMLLONG1mo ago
“With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto, over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards…”
Serenity

ASML's EUV monopoly makes it the unkillable chokepoint in frontier semiconductor supply chains outside the US.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,977.67
$1,624.57-17.85%
since call Jun 21
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ASMASMLLONG1mo ago
“Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment: +38% YoY, +43% MoM”
Jukan

South Korea semicon equipment exports hit an all-time 8-year high, signaling fab capex surge that directly lifts ASML as the dominant equipment supplier.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,916.48
$1,624.57-15.23%
since call Jun 21
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ASMASMLLONG1mo ago
“equipment (which big 4 is around 2T) has become big enough for the latest round of the LO pain trade”
SuspendedCap

Semiconductor equipment big 4 hits ~$2T combined, forcing underweight long-only funds to chase ASML higher

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,930.77
$1,624.57-15.86%
since call Jun 20
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ASMASMLLONG1mo ago
“there is a massive upgrade cycle going on right now of all EUV machines as the upgrade is extremely economical”
bubble boi

ASML wrongly fingered for China EUV leak; upgrade cycle drives real revenue growth

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,948.95
$1,624.57-16.64%
since call Jun 19
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ASMASMLSHORT1mo ago
“Holy shit, the U.S. government suspects that ASML exported EUV tools to China, or exported EUV components to China.”
Jukan

US gov't suspects ASML violated EUV export ban to China, triggering compliance risk and potential sanctions that would crush its China revenue and operating license

ASMASMLSHORT@ $1,891.56
$1,624.57+14.11%
since call Jun 19
peak +19.9%
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ASMASMLSHORT1mo ago
“US TELLS ASML IT'S CONCERNED CHINA MAY HAVE TOP CHIP TOOL”
zerohedge

US concern China obtained top ASML chip tool signals escalating export pressure on ASML's China revenue

ASMASMLSHORT@ $1,890.94
$1,624.57+14.09%
since call Jun 19
peak +20.1%
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ASMASMLLONG1mo ago
“If Terafab comes online, we ain't seen nothin' yet regarding supply chain shortages. Big boost for Semicap names would ensue though!”
Semi Doped · Vikram Sekar

If Musk's Terafab is built, semicap toolmakers like ASML reap huge orders.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,953.13
$1,624.57-16.82%
since call Jun 18
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ASMASMLLONG1mo ago
“if the sovereign AI thesis could not get any stronger right now, this weekend really showed a lot of countries, hey, maybe we do want a national champion.”
TBPN

Sovereign AI demand reprices Europe's national champion Mistral higher, and ASML's 11% stake rides it up.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,922.91
$1,624.57-15.52%
since call Jun 16
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ASMASMLLONG2mo ago
“going to stacking chips is a positive for ASML … you need more machines to make more chips for the same product — you need to make two times as many wafers”
Semi Doped

Logic stacking means two DUV wafers per chip, so stacking is bullish for ASML not bearish.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,616.73
$1,624.57+0.48%
since call May 29
peak +13.9%
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ASMASMLLONGPOSITION2mo ago
“The European markets are just tough right now given the regulatory environment. They just have a different attitude about business and capitalism. And we're…”
Invest Like the Best

European local-economy companies are challenged by regulation and anti-capitalist attitude; favor global names like Rolls-Royce, ASML.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,648.99
$1,624.57-1.48%
since call May 28
peak +12.6%
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ASMASMLLONG3mo ago
“this is like the craziest thing I've ever learned about my entire life. This is the stock.”
ThreadGuy

ASML solely makes the EUV machines every advanced chip needs; a cornered monopoly that's underpriced.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,414.03
$1,624.57+14.89%
since call Apr 27
peak +27.7%
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ASMASMLLONG3mo ago
“You see ASML is completely sold out. And they need Carl Zeiss to expand faster. Everywhere along the chain, everyone's either sold out and margins are going…”
Invest Like the Best

ASML completely sold out; Carl Zeiss is the bottleneck on expanding lithography supply.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,416.61
$1,624.57+14.68%
since call Apr 23
peak +26.7%
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ASMASMLLONG4mo ago
“by '28, '29, the bottleneck falls to the lowest rung on the supply chain, which is ASML, right? ASML makes the world's most complicated machine. I.e., an EUV…”
Dwarkesh Podcast

ASML is the ultimate AI bottleneck by 2028-29; only it makes EUV and can't scale fast. Long ASML.

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,323.83
$1,624.57+22.72%
since call Mar 13
peak +36.0%
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ASMASMLLONG5mo ago
“it's not that they have not replicated TSMC, they have not replicated ASML. That's the limiting factor.”
Dwarkesh Podcast

ASML is the irreplaceable choke point in chips; even China can't replicate it, so demand is locked in

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,372.49
$1,624.57+18.37%
since call Feb 5
peak +35.5%
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ASMASMLLONG6mo ago
“Do you really want to be long software when everyone is talking about the fact that we don't have enough chips … we need as much chips as we can.”
Jordi Visser

ASML benefits as the chip shortage drives continued demand for lithography equipment

ASMASMLLONG@ $1,380.83
$1,624.57+17.65%
since call Feb 1
peak +29.4%
Trade on Hyperliquid →
ASMASMLSHORT2y ago
“They're able to make 7-nanometer chips now. I think there's a question of how many could they make, but I think there's at least a possibility that they're…”
Dwarkesh Podcast

China maturing domestic 7nm on DUV ends ASML's record China stockpiling, so its biggest revenue source normalizes down.

ASMASMLSHORT@ $946.04
$1,624.57-71.72%
since call Jun 4
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