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0:00SHORT
“our view has been basically to pare back risk during this period … Next phase, turbulence, would be an absolute get out and hold much…”
@Forward Guidance · Michael Howell
Pare risk now, raise cash, as liquidity moves from speculation toward turbulence
BTCSHORT@ $78,723.00
$62,926.50+20.07%
since call Apr 22
peak +21.3%
“the real economy is actually accelerating or increasing its appetite … its working capital demands, and that is sucking liquidity out of markets.”
@Forward Guidance · Michael Howell
Commodities rising as a strong real economy lifts working capital and energy demand
COPXLONG@ $86.40
$78.04-9.68%
since call Apr 22
“it actually looks as if the original sort of idea that you get strong liquidity spilling over into a strong real economy is actually transpiring … 2026 is…”
@Forward Guidance · Michael Howell
2026 is a year of strong economic growth, not the deep recession the media fears
XLILONG@ $167.79
$181.61+8.24%
since call Apr 22
peak +8.2%
25:16LONG
“each 10-point increase in the MOVE Index basically leads to subsequently a $28 billion increase in Treasury buybacks. So there's a direct correlation.”
@Forward Guidance · Michael Howell
A sovereign vol backstop that buys off-the-run bonds keeps the long end orderly and pressures long yields down.
TLTLONG@ $85.23
$81.44-4.46%
since call Apr 22
44:10SHORT
“when you start to get tightening liquidity, the demand for safe assets goes up … you're poised for a yield curve flattening”
@Forward Guidance · Michael Howell
Yield curve bear-flattens by mid-year as falling liquidity lifts safe-asset demand
SHYSHORT@ $81.15
$82.21-1.30%
since call Apr 22
peak +0.9%
52:23LONG
“in downswings, what you get is a fall in the gold-oil ratio. Well, that seems kind of plausible the more you think about it.”
@Forward Guidance · Michael Howell
Oil rises as the gold-oil ratio reverts toward 20x, with adjustment coming through oil not gold
WTILONG@ $90.95
$87.67-3.60%
since call Apr 22
53:03LONG
“late in the cycle, what destroys liquidity is basically commodity markets going up... what ends the liquidity cycle is rising commodity prices.”
@Forward Guidance · Michael Howell
Commodities run late-cycle as accelerating real economies drive prices up, destroying liquidity
DBCLONG@ $29.95
$29.05-3.04%
since call Apr 22
peak +3.4%
55:41LONG
“all the ducks seem to be lining up in a row here to say that we are in this speculation phase. You're getting stronger economies.”
@Forward Guidance · Michael Howell
Cyclical value, resources and energy stocks outperform in the late-cycle speculation phase
XLELONG@ $55.47
$60.15+8.44%
since call Apr 22
peak +8.4%
TIMESTAMPS
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55:41