Forward Guidance — sniff.trade

Forward Guidance

Blockworks' macro show, hosted by Felix Jauvin.

33 episodes · 246 trades · 18 speakers

all speakers ▾

TRACKED TRADES

@Forward Guidance

1w

AI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve Hou

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDALONGSurging inference demand and high GPU rental rates force cloud providers to continuously buy more Nvidia silicon to expand capacity.$197.89-8.61%›IREIRENLONGIREN directly captures rising long-term GPU rental prices as an AI Cloud provider.$37.00-9.12%›

@Forward Guidance

2w

The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup

IDEAS · 10

MSFMSFTSHORTMicrosoft faces a structural ceiling on AI capex as negative free cash flow and rising capital costs force a pullback.$473.83-19.95%›AMZAMZNSHORTAmazon is hitting the upper bound of sustainable AI spending as rising financing costs and negative free cash flow force a reckoning.$267.87-6.76%›GOOGOOGLSHORTGoogle's AI spending spree is hitting a wall as the hyperscalers face widening credit spreads and a prisoner's dilemma over capex cuts.$355.29-4.84%›METMETASHORTMeta's massive AI infrastructure buildout is reaching its limits as hyperscalers grapple with rising debt costs and equity issuance overhangs.$565.99+12.05%›

+6 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

3w

Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent Donnelly

IDEAS · 4

GLDGLDLONGGold is bottoming as retail capitulation finishes and the new Fed chair's performative hawkishness fails to materialize.$369.96-0.29%›BTCBTCSHORTBitcoin has exhausted its rotating narratives and will likely fail to mount another bull run as investors realize it serves no clear purpose.$62,974-0.43%›FXYFXYSHORTBOJ interventions will fail to halt the yen's depreciation against the dollar due to structural yield differentials.$56.51+0.21%›QQQQQQSHORTRapid bond yield spikes compress multiples for long-duration tech stocks, triggering sharp sell-offs.$676.65+3.12%›

@Forward Guidance

4w

The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup

IDEAS · 9

GLDGLDLONGGold is a long as real yields peak and the hawkish Fed narrative washes out.$369.96-3.35%›MSFMSFTSHORTMicrosoft is a sell on bounces as the unwinding AI trade threatens the balance sheet markups of its private AI lab investments.$473.83-19.47%›AMZAMZNSHORTAmazon is a sell on bounces as the unwinding AI trade threatens the balance sheet markups of its private AI lab investments.$267.87-12.31%›GOOGOOGLSHORTGoogle is a sell on bounces as the unwinding AI trade threatens the balance sheet markups of its private AI lab investments.$355.29+2.75%›

+5 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

4w

How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan

IDEAS · 4

SHYSHYSHORTShort-end Treasuries face a bear flattener as the removal of Fed forward guidance drives front-end yields higher.$82.89+0.71%›TLTTLTSHORTLong-end Treasuries will sell off as foreign buyers drop away and term premium returns to price the supply glut.$85.51+2.22%›XLVXLVLONGHealthcare equities benefit as a short-duration defensive haven while the market digests a muddied monetary policy environment.$165.78+0.99%›XLPXLPLONGConsumer staples offer a short-duration defensive beneficiary as investors seek shelter from less clear Fed signaling.$86.78+0.70%›

@Forward Guidance

1mo

Is The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly Roundup

IDEAS · 15

UUPUUPSHORTThe US dollar is rolling over and looks toppy as extreme hawkish narratives reverse.$27.70+2.51%›XLIXLILONGIndustrials are breaking out to new highs as capital rotates into old-economy sectors.$183.75+2.94%›KBEKBELONGBanks are making new highs as market breadth rotates away from tech into old-school sectors.$69.30+3.30%›INTINTCLONGIntel benefits from a market rotation into old-economy stocks favored by the Trump administration.$88.71-30.43%›

+11 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

1mo

A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup

IDEAS · 6

TLTTLTLONGTightening global liquidity flips 60/40 math, boomers get paid to own bonds again$82.13-4.33%›UUPUUPLONGGlobal liquidity draining, dollar breaking out higher as capital flees into US assets$27.70-4.05%›VRTVRTLONGMoney rotating out of hyperscalers into AI bottleneck stocks, those rip while scalers lag$238.39-28.74%›SP5SP500LONGLow-vol summer grind up as vol rolls off and vol-targeting funds reallocate$7,367.30-3.67%›

+2 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

1mo

The Warsh Fed Will Look Nothing Like Before | Joseph Wang

IDEAS · 2

SP5SP500SHORTRisk assets face a sustained, meaningful decline as classic top signals stack up with rate hikes priced in$7,367.30-0.52%›TLTTLTSHORTLess basis-trade leverage means weaker Treasury absorption, so long-bond supply overwhelms demand and yields rise.$82.13+4.04%›

@Forward Guidance

1mo

Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 2

FJFelix Jauvin

MAGMAGSSHORTMag 7 is red YTD as buybacks reverse into massive equity issuance; avoid hyperscalers$65.69-2.88%›SILSILVERLONGLevered long silver futures: monetary dilution and a market that just needs hikes not to materialize$58.11-10.53%›

IDEAS · 7

SOFSOFRLONGMarket priced 2 hikes; with negative real wage growth there's no wage-price spiral, so SOFR reprices to cuts$101.23+2.76%›GOLGOLDLONGGold is being whacked on overdone Fed hawk expectations; a long gold is the same trade as long SOFR$4,038.83-3.58%›WTIWTISHORTDemand destruction plus a potential Hormuz opening means oil falls further than the bull camp expects$88.69-4.96%›MUMULONGDon't buy hyperscalers, buy what they buy with issued equity: memory is up 3x while Mag 7 is red$810.02-16.41%›

+3 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

1mo

Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen

IDEAS · 5

WTIWTILONGPhysical oil crisis breaks the financial system: bad for bonds, stocks, gold, Bitcoin near-term$88.69-1.13%›JPYJPYSHORTJapan and Korea trade like EMs heading into debt crises that drag down the whole world$154.87+1.14%›SP5SP500SHORTUS equities at 65-year valuation extreme with yields rising into an oil war, terrible risk-reward$7,367.30-2.28%›BTCBTCSHORTGold and Bitcoin falling daily are warning risk assets crater unless mass liquidity is injected soon$62,973.50-0.55%›

+1 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

1mo

Why This Economy Refuses To Break | David Cervantes

IDEAS · 4

SHYSHYSHORTInflation is broadening beyond oil and labor is full; the Fed pivots to hikes, repricing the curve.$82.89+0.75%›EWYEWYLONGKorean equities went parabolic on export and chip growth yet still trade historically cheap; stay long.$158.55-27.21%›WTIWTILONGFinite SPR releases get drawn down by late summer, removing the cap and pressuring oil prices higher.$88.69-7.21%›SP5SP500LONGHigher nominal rates can coexist with rising equities; a 5% 10-year is not a reason to short stocks.$7,367.30-3.14%›

@Forward Guidance

2mo

How To Trade The AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup

IDEAS · 6

TLTTLTSHORTNegative real rates are here for good as the US fiscally grows its way out of debt, supporting risk assets long term—›BTCBTCSHORTCrypto is in a bear market; wrong macro regime plus treasury-company financial engineering leaves Bitcoin lagging$62,973.50+14.08%›WTIWTISHORTTrump must cut an Iran deal before midterms, ending the oil shock as SPR and inventory buffers run dry$88.69-3.01%›XRTXRTSHORTUS consumer buffers are exhausting, with incomes negative for first time since 2022, pointing to stagflation$89.28-3.11%›

+2 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

2mo

Can The AI Driven Rally Continue? | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 2

QTQuinn Thompson

TLTTLTSHORTShort bonds: persistent 3.5%+ inflation soon above 4% keeps sovereign yields breaking out toward 5%$82.13-0.15%›XLEXLELONGLong energy: higher WTI turns US oil and gas into cash printers buying back stock, and a premium stays in oil$60.85+3.52%›

IDEAS · 4

SOFSOFRLONGLong SOFR futures: market is pricing 2 hikes off an energy shock, but central banks dont hike into oil spikes$101.23+1.26%›XYZXYZ100SHORTNASDAQ relative topping: trillions of IPO supply plus stretched positioning drain liquidity from tech leadership$27,860.71+6.58%›XHBXHBLONGLong housing on replacement cost: inflation drives the cost of everything up so home replacement value rises$105.25+8.34%›WTIWTILONGCushing and SPR drawdowns keep WTI bid, closing its gap to Brent and leaving a structural premium under WTI.$87.68-13.28%›

@Forward Guidance

2mo

The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 1

QTQuinn Thompson

XLEXLELONGLong oil and gas producers as energy inflation surges and XLE outperforms risk-adjusted$60.85+6.08%›

IDEAS · 8

DBCDBCLONGCommodities win as inflation runs hot and growth stays strong with no punch bowl removal$28.98-8.30%›TLTTLTSHORTShort bonds: all the easing and long-end suppression makes the long end worse over time$82.13+1.26%›NVDNVDALONGNvidia has big runway if legacy chips get sold to China, lifting equity indices$197.89-16.61%›NVDNVDASHORTAI/semis super frothy short-term, a deriv unwind would be brutal as retail piled in$197.89+16.61%›

+4 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

2mo

The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta

IDEAS · 4

XRTXRTSHORTConsumer is weaker than the bulls claim and an energy squeeze on real incomes will hit discretionary spending$89.28-12.47%›WTIWTILONGOil stays bid as the rest of the world scrambles for US barrels, pulling US prices up to global levels$88.69-8.68%›XYZXYZ100SHORTThe AI capex boom is propping up the whole economy, so when it slows it becomes a major macro shock$27,860.71+5.05%›SHYSHYLONGTariff core-goods inflation is a one-time shock that fades, reviving front-end disinflation and pulling 1-3Y yields down.$82.89+2.60%›

@Forward Guidance

2mo

Oil And AI Are Breaking The Middle Class | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 1

QTQuinn Thompson

GOLGOLDLONGGold outperforms stocks and beats Bitcoin as intervention games stack up the catalysts$4,038.83-15.47%›

IDEAS · 12

WTIWTILONGLong-dated oil set to grind higher as US reserves drain and restocking premium builds$87.68-6.82%›USOUSOSHORTWith oil vol at the 96th percentile, sell the expensive insurance rather than pick a direction$127.11+7.54%›TLTTLTSHORTBonds are screwed: run-it-hot policy plus a war-end growth surge pushes yields higher$82.13+4.33%›BTCBTCSHORTSell Bitcoin and rotate to gold as the safe-haven baton hands back to metals$62,973.50+20.59%›

+8 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

2mo

Passive Easing Is Fueling The Next Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan

IDEAS · 7

TIPTIPLONGPassive easing into a supply shock means inflation reaccelerates and the Fed must eventually slam the brakes$109.06-0.29%›TLTTLTSHORTFed is below neutral and passively easing, so short bonds as rate-sensitive economy overheats and yields must rise$82.13+3.08%›SP5SP500LONGPolicy too loose means risk assets go violently parabolic, 2000 style, until the Fed wakes up$7,367.30-0.28%›COPCOPPERLONGCopper and agriculture commodities rally on real supply shortages from data centers and the economy$6.52+8.14%›

+3 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

3mo

Central Bank Control Is Breaking | Weekly Roundup

IDEAS · 7

JPYJPYSHORTUSDJPY breaks above 160 to the upside, dollar strengthens, global yields blow out$154.87+1.91%›XYZXYZ100SHORTShort the NASDAQ: stretched positioning plus Japan carry unwind sets up a washout$27,860.71-3.09%›TLTTLTSHORTUS 30-year yield breaks 5% as fiscal dominance forces the long end higher no matter what they try$82.13+2.83%›GOLGOLDLONG1970s-style second inflation wave is baked in, favoring hard assets over long-duration$4,038.83-11.61%›

+3 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

3mo

The AI Bubble Is Widely Misunderstood | Steve Hou

IDEAS · 4

SMHSMHLONGAgentic AI raises compute demand 100-fold, so the picks-and-shovels data center supply chain keeps booming$535.73+6.88%›EWTEWTLONGKorean and Taiwanese economies are on fire from chip exports driven by AI demand$97.51+9.35%›TLTTLTSHORTAI capex demand drives up hardware, electricity and grid prices, so AI is inflationary not deflationary$82.13+5.55%›FIXFIXLONGSkilled-trades labor is the binding constraint on AI data center buildout, handing pricing power to the MEP contractors who own that scarce workforce.$1,717.24+0.40%›

@Forward Guidance

3mo

The Fed Is Irrelevant While CapEx Runs The Economy | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 1

FJFelix Jauvin

INTINTCLONGAI compute names like Intel have legs; ride boring shares through the vol washout$88.71+9.58%›

IDEAS · 11

SP5SP500LONGUS economy is reaccelerating, with strong retail sales, surging employment and bank lending$7,367.30+4.80%›XLRXLRESHORTCommercial office real estate faces structural collapse as AI and work-from-home gut demand$44.53-0.82%›UUPUUPSHORTDollar is being actively suppressed and manipulated, setting up eventual repercussions for it$27.70-1.56%›UUPUUPLONGDollar dominance is rising, not falling, and stablecoins push it higher still$27.70+1.56%›

+7 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

3mo

Markets Are Misreading A Late Cycle Liquidity Crunch | Michael Howell

IDEAS · 8

BTCBTCSHORTPare risk now, raise cash, as liquidity moves from speculation toward turbulence$62,973.50+20.01%›XLIXLILONG2026 is a year of strong economic growth, not the deep recession the media fears$183.75+9.51%›COPCOPXLONGCommodities rising as a strong real economy lifts working capital and energy demand$77.64-10.14%›SHYSHYSHORTYield curve bear-flattens by mid-year as falling liquidity lifts safe-asset demand$82.89-2.15%›

+4 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

3mo

Market Structure is Fueling an Inflation Trap | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 1

QTQuinn Thompson

CRDCRDOLONGAI infrastructure has real underlying demand; the compute buildout is a durable tailwind$211.50+33.94%›

IDEAS · 6

UUPUUPLONGDollar pushed lower is driving everything; it bounces from extreme rather than going to zero—›GOLGOLDLONGNegative real yields world: lever up and buy assets growing faster than inflation$4,179.20-12.80%›TLTTLTSHORTLong end is the pressure point: deficits, stimulus into midterms keep bond yields elevated$82.13+3.16%›ITBITBSHORTHousing faces demographic oversupply; prices crumble and it becomes a dead asset for 10-15 years$95.38-0.22%›

+2 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

3mo

How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi

IDEAS · 4

WTIWTILONGSteep oil contango has marked crude bottoms; steep backwardation in the Iran supply shock favors crude longs$88.69-1.44%›TLTTLTLONGAI tech proves strongly disinflationary on a 5-year horizon, supporting bonds and lower rates$82.13-6.89%›COPCOPPERLONGThe AI compute boom is anchored to scarce real commodities, driving inflation upside in those inputs$6.52+4.43%›CRWCRWVSHORTDebt-funded AI builder can't service its leverage as GPU rents fall, the original owner breaks before the assets do.$71.03+36.76%›

@Forward Guidance

3mo

Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 1

FJFelix Jauvin

WTIWTILONGBack-month oil futures converge toward 90 as the spike gets priced as over too soon.$88.69-7.07%›

IDEAS · 12

SP5SP500SHORTS&P sits 3% off all-time highs with a fake ceasefire and bad macro, so risk reward is short.$7,022.10-2.99%›IGVIGVSHORTAI is eating software's lunch, premium compresses and EPS rolls over, so short software.$93.03-22.09%›BTCBTCLONGBitcoin is diverging from software, sniffing out global liquidity relief and Trump stimulus into midterms.$79,301.00+10.98%›SMHSMHLONGCompute demand is wildly underpriced, so own the semis and hardware sellers to the hyperscalers.$535.73+26.48%›

+8 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

3mo

The Iran War is Accelerating the End of Globalism | Jacob Shapiro

IDEAS · 8

WTIWTILONGWar accelerates deglobalization, so energy stays bid through year-end on chokepoint disruption$88.69-21.10%›DBADBALONGMissed fertilizer planting window locks in lower crop yields and rising food prices in 6-9 months$27.07-1.73%›NATNATGASLONGEurope pays higher LNG spot prices as Mideast capacity it relied on goes offline$2.84+0.64%›FXIFXILONGChina relatively wins from the disruption with reserves, renewables, and a Russian energy backstop$36.97+5.92%›

+4 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

3mo

Why AI Will Reprice The Entire Economy | Jordi Visser

IDEAS · 8

BTCBTCLONGBitcoin is the endgame growth asset, funded by wealth fleeing software equities as AI breaks DCF$62,973.50-9.43%›MUMULONGMicron is mispriced at a sub-4 PE while DRAM demand explodes from the agentic compute boom$810.02+115.20%›SILSILVERLONGSilver beats gold for the rest of time because it is a necessity in every piece of AI and military tech$58.11-21.28%›NVDNVDALONGNVIDIA leads the next leg up as Jensen guides to $1T revenue, far above the $600B the market prices$197.89+12.19%›

+4 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

3mo

Market Structure is Distorting Reality as Inflation Builds | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 2

QTQuinn Thompson

XYZXYZ100SHORTInflation from oil shock crushes risk assets as yields rise and equity multiples fall$27,860.71-14.27%›CASCASHLONGCash is a position into the midterms, a huge vol event with record political stakes ahead$88.89+0.27%›

IDEAS · 8

TLTTLTSHORTBonds are awful here as bear flattening turns to bear steepening once cuts and stimulus hit into the election$82.13+4.20%›IYTIYTLONGTransports mean-revert higher versus tech as capital concentrates out of software into real things$86.74+17.87%›GDXGDXLONGGold mining equities are cheap versus bullion despite double the margins, set to rerate higher$72.87-23.74%›SP5SP500LONGStocks rerate higher as the great rotation out of debt makes equities the only place to save$7,353.30+12.05%›

+4 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

4mo

Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated

IDEAS · 2

IEFIEFLONGFed is a percentage point above neutral and should cut to ~2.5% this year, inflation fears overdone$91.43-3.61%›TLTTLTLONGAI, deregulation and capital deepening are persistent disinflationary supply shocks$82.13-3.26%›

@Forward Guidance

4mo

The Fed Is Trapped As Oil Drives Inflation Higher | Weekly Roundup

IDEAS · 10

WTIWTILONGBrent near $100 and Strait of Hormuz risk make global recession very probable, oil stays elevated$88.69-5.26%›SP5SP500SHORTRestrictive Fed plus oil shock puts a lid on risk asset prices and multiples, bad year for stocks$7,367.30-11.09%›SHYSHYLONGFront-end pricing of Fed hikes is offside, Fed will look through oil and likely cut a few times this year$82.89+1.13%›UUPUUPLONGSafe-haven flows keep the dollar rallying as Europe and Middle East are most exposed to the war—›

+6 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

4mo

AI Will Drive The Biggest Boom In History | Raoul Pal

IDEAS · 9

BTCBTCLONGCurrency debasement of ~8% a year is the put under all assets, so collateral never collapses$62,973.50-11.04%›SP5SP500LONGNo more recessions because they will not let collateral fall in an over-indebted world$7,367.30+11.05%›KBWKBWBLONGBanks get unleashed to provide liquidity via lending, reigniting a Greenspan-style 90s boom$94.69+19.76%›IGVIGVLONGSoftware stock selloff is a false narrative driven by liquidity, not AI disruption$93.03+14.95%›

+5 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

4mo

Escalating Energy Shock Exposing Central Bank Limits | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 3

QTQuinn Thompson

BOIBOILLONGEnergy infrastructure destruction makes natural gas equities structurally more valuable$20.19-45.26%›EWJEWJSHORTShort South Korea, Japan and Europe equities as the most energy-exposed economies$93.45-16.31%›VGKVGKSHORTShort Europe equities, most exposed to oil shock with the least flexible central bank$92.35-19.24%›

IDEAS · 8

SP5SP500SHORTEnergy shock keeps a hard ceiling on the S&P 500 with no liquidity to rescue it$7,367.30-10.83%›DBADBALONGAgriculture commodities are the slept-on trade as fertilizer and fuel costs spike into planting season$27.07-0.79%›EWYEWYSHORTSouth Korea equities are the cleanest short, most exposed to the Hormuz LNG cutoff$158.55-23.95%›IEIIEILONGDecember SOFR futures are interesting as the Fed gets forced to cut by an equity selloff$114.57-4.26%›

+4 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

4mo

The Macro Chain Reaction of Oil Shocks | Bob Elliott

IDEAS · 5

USBUSBONDSHORTCentral banks never ease into oil shocks — they tighten or hold. Markets pricing 1-2 Fed cuts in 2026 are wrong. When the Fed is forced to stay hawkish, long-duration Treasuries get destroyed.—IDEA›EUREURSHORTEurope imports virtually all its energy — this oil shock is a direct tax on growth and a trade deficit exploder with no domestic buffer. USD strengthens as energy importers are squeezed. The rest-of-world vs US trade is already unwinding.$1.17-2.80%›BREBRENTLONGThe oil futures curve prices crude 40% above year-start levels through year-end — more extended than 2022. Oil traders counting physical barrels and the math does not close. Equity markets have not caught up to what the oil market is already pricing.$89.75-15.66%›USAUSA500SHORTUS stocks are basically flat since the Iran oil shock started — the same size shock that drove a 25% drawdown in 2022. Markets are conditioned to buy dips on policy reversals, but wars do not tweet reversals. Rate and growth repricing has not started yet.—IDEA›

+1 more ideas →

@Forward Guidance

4mo

Why the Oil Shock Could Trigger a Global Recession | Weekly Roundup

POSITIONS · 2

FJFelix Jauvin

IGVIGVSHORTShort software stocks rotating out of semis as the rally peaks into an economic downturn$93.03-11.46%›WMTWMTLONGLong defensive consumer staples like Walmart and Costco as a recession hedge in an equity downturn$112.50-11.76%›

IDEAS · 11

UUPUUPLONGDollar set for violent rally as Europe and Asia face energy-shock recession while everyone is short USD—›GOLGOLDLONGGold gets caught in a violent dollar rally short-term but is absurdly bullish medium-term as no one wants treasuries$4,038.83-18.62%›TLTTLTSHORTLong bonds are dead money and terrible risk-reward as deficits blow out either way and basis traders dump them in crises$82.13+6.85%›IRVIRVHLONGCurve steepener is the cleanest rates trade as you're screwed on long-term inflation whether the Fed acts or not$18.90-6.56%›

+7 more ideas →