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“I'm concerned that we're gonna head for an overheat and them needing to slam the brakes with aggressive rate hikes.”
@Forward Guidance · Danny Dayan
Passive easing into a supply shock means inflation reaccelerates and the Fed must eventually slam the brakes
TIPLONG@ $109.38
$108.30-0.99%
since call May 6
15:01LONG
“When you have a supply disruption on the scale of what we have, what you need is the oil market to get into balance.”
@Forward Guidance · Danny Dayan
A real supply disruption keeps oil short of balance; only materially higher crude prices clear it.
WTILONG@ $98.21
$87.73-10.67%
since call May 6
40:25SHORT
“let's just go with my estimate of 4.5% on the neutral rate. At 5.5%, you were mildly restrictive. That's not enough to break the whole economy...”
@Forward Guidance · Danny Dayan
Fed is below neutral and passively easing, so short bonds as rate-sensitive economy overheats and yields must rise
TLTSHORT@ $84.74
$81.41+3.94%
since call May 6
peak +4.1%
44:28LONG
“policy is too loose … risk assets should continue to go parabolic. In my opinion, it may get very violently parabolic, 2000 style, until they wait…”
@Forward Guidance · Danny Dayan
Policy too loose means risk assets go violently parabolic, 2000 style, until the Fed wakes up
SP500LONG@ $7,388.11
$7,370.20-0.24%
since call May 6
peak +4.1%
47:12LONG
“we need copper for data centers, right? We need copper for other things that we build in, in the economy … we need agriculture.”
@Forward Guidance · Danny Dayan
Copper and agriculture commodities rally on real supply shortages from data centers and the economy
COPPERLONG@ $6.03
$6.46+7.21%
since call May 6
peak +7.8%
47:34SHORT
“I don't think gold and silver are gonna participate as much because we don't need those commodities... We don't need gold or silver.”
@Forward Guidance · Danny Dayan
Gold and silver underperform because they are dollar replacements the economy does not actually need
GOLDSHORT@ $4,747.64
$4,067.01+14.34%
since call May 6
peak +14.7%
“VIX upside. I mean, when the VIX is in the 17 handle, you know, get, don't get silly about it... don't bet on lower VIX from here.”
@Forward Guidance · Danny Dayan
Buy VIX upside because volatility cannot go much lower from a 17 handle with daily 1.5% swings
VIXYLONG@ $27.03
$20.73-23.31%
since call May 6
TIMESTAMPS
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15:01
40:25
44:28
47:12
47:34
48:35