“For Intel to be worth what it is... this cycle has to go through 2030 because their current valuations are not otherwise justified... Intel is trading as at 100 times as if the cycle is continuing for”
Intel is drastically overvalued at 100 times earnings, requiring the current hardware cycle to persist through 2030 just to justify its price.
“I just think there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution... A third rate Nvidia chip is a year and a half to two years ahead of Huawei in China... for every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip,”
The artificial intelligence hardware rush creates a supply bottleneck, letting Nvidia capture an $8 to $10 multiplier for every dollar spent on its chips.
“they are going to pay their Oracle bills and therefore Oracle actually has a chance of being worth a lot more... And as we sit here today, their entire backlog, $630 billion worth of backlog of comput”
The market prices Oracle's massive $638 billion compute backlog at zero even as AI model builders secure the cash to pay their infrastructure bills.
“Google cloud accelerated growth into the 60s and it's a very big business and importantly the search advertising growth accelerated... Why? Because they're using AI to sell us more ads for more money.”
Google is crushing the bearish narrative by accelerating cloud revenue to 82% and successfully integrating AI to drive higher search monetization.
“Apple is the easy pass on the consumer AI highway. The reality is like 20% of the world is going to access AI through an Apple device... whoever wins we'll use in our models. That's what new Siri is.”
Apple dominates the consumer AI highway by monetizing its 2.5 billion iOS devices regardless of which underlying model wins the expensive arms race.
“I can make an argument that the memory chip market is much better than the CPU market. And yet, Micron is trading at six times as if the cycle is over.”
The market is completely mispricing Micron at just six times earnings, falsely assuming the memory chip boom is already dead.
“Salesforce is in the category of software that they're trying to cut... Because Salesforce has not been adding value to them in years and it keeps charging them more and more for that less value every”
Enterprises are slashing budgets to fund AI and dumping Salesforce because it hiked prices by 9% last year without improving the actual product.
“Microsoft that has accelerating growth right now because they're actually executing very well where AI is a tailwind not only to the Azure business but to the office business and the infrastructure so”
Companies are slashing bloated software budgets to fund critical AI infrastructure, driving a massive 39% surge in Microsoft Azure revenue.
“The reality of cyber security budgets are going to double the next two or three years a because the surface area every agent... I just think the best position companies from a product perspective and ”
Enterprise security budgets will double over the next three years as AI agents multiply the attack surface, handing the market to CrowdStrike.
“The reality of cyber security budgets are going to double the next two or three years a because the surface area every agent... I just think the best position companies from a product perspective and ”
Cybersecurity budgets will double because every new AI assistant a worker uses spawns another target for hackers, making Palo Alto a must-buy.
“I would look at like names like Adobe where you had such a mo you have such an instal and they essentially they miscalculated what AI is going to do the business model.”
Adobe completely misjudged how generative AI rewrites its core business model, leaving its massive install base exposed to 250 million Canva users by 2026.
“You could say the same thing for names like into it... they're going to create models like could could it actually do your taxes... what does it ultimately you know take out of its market share”
Generative AI models are learning to do your taxes autonomously, forcing Intuit to slash 17% of its workforce as it bleeds structural market share.