The Real Eisman Playbook — sniff.trade

The Real Eisman Playbook

Steve Eisman (The Big Short) shares his own market views and named positions — long-term tech, financials, energy, private credit.

11 episodes · 107 trades · 8 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@The Real Eisman Playbook

4d

AI Revolution: Winners & Losers w/ Dan Ives & Gil Luria | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 70

IDEAS · 12

GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle is an AI winner as its cloud growth accelerates into the 60s and AI integration successfully drives higher search ad monetization.$355.27+4.23%›AAPAAPLLONGApple is the toll booth of consumer AI, positioned to monetize its 2.5 billion iOS devices regardless of which underlying model wins.$303.87-9.61%›ORCORCLLONGOracle's massive $630 billion compute backlog is currently being valued at zero by the market despite OpenAI securing the capital to pay its bills.$127.77+7.62%›MUMULONGMicron is severely mispriced at six times earnings, with the market incorrectly valuing the stock as if the memory cycle is already over.$810.14-0.68%›

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@The Real Eisman Playbook

1w

Google's Negative Cash Flow and the AI Capex Reckoning | The Weekly Wrap

IDEAS · 2

GEVGEVLONGGE Vernova is a premier AI power play with orders up 88%, and the long-tail backlog justifies holding despite nosebleed valuations.$974.43-2.45%›MCOMCOLONGMoody's retains its pricing-power duopoly immune to AI disruption, and the stock is now the cheapest it has been in years at a sub-30 forward P/E.$478.56+1.39%›

@The Real Eisman Playbook

1w

AI Has a Power Problem: Why the U.S. Power Grid Can't Keep Up | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 69

IDEAS · 5

GEVGEVLONGGE Vernova's natural gas turbine and electrification segments are booked out through 2030 with strong pricing power as data centers scramble for grid equipment.$974.43-11.20%›TSLTSLALONGTesla's energy storage business is growing top-line revenue at over 30% a year while its vision-only robotaxi rollout accelerates in Texas.$309.11-20.13%›MPMPLONGMP Materials is expanding its sold-out magnet manufacturing footprint by 2.5x to supply data center HVAC motors as the US bypasses China.$40.72-13.65%›FSLFSLRLONGFirst Solar has $100 of upside if upcoming Section 232 tariff decisions on Chinese polysilicon drive next year's earnings to $17-$18.$208.67-1.04%›

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@The Real Eisman Playbook

2w

Bank Earnings Just Gave the Market a Much Needed Confidence Boost | The Weekly Wrap

IDEAS · 8

IBMIBMSHORTIBM is suffering a short-term SaaS apocalypse as enterprise clients divert software budgets to secure supply-constrained AI infrastructure.$220.61-5.52%›ERIERICSHORTEricsson is suffering from severe component cost inflation as AI demand drives up semiconductor and tech equipment prices.$9.82+1.53%›ASMASMLLONGASML is a clear beneficiary of the AI boom, beating on EPS and raising guidance as demand for its lithography machines surges.$1,620-8.25%›UNHUNHLONGUnitedHealth is successfully raising prices to overcome higher healthcare costs, driving improved margins even on flat revenue.$413.20-1.26%›

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@The Real Eisman Playbook

3w

Who Wins the Midterms & What It Means for Markets with Dan Clifton | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 67

IDEAS · 4

UUPUUPSHORTThe US dollar is heading lower as Trump actively targets a 20-year low to maximize the domestic impact of his investment incentives.$27.70+3.33%›KBEKBELONGBank M&A is poised to accelerate as regulators actively push for consolidation among thousands of community banks before the 2028 election.$69.30-1.44%›QQQQQQSHORTAI stocks are vulnerable to a sudden summer drawdown as markets completely ignore the looming Democratic campaign to restrict data centers.$676.72+4.99%›ITAITASHORTLarge-cap defense stocks face structural underperformance as the lessons of Ukraine and Iran shift warfare models toward agile defense tech.$242.30-0.07%›

@The Real Eisman Playbook

4w

The Market's Biggest Warning Signs Right Now with Todd Sohn | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 66

IDEAS · 10

GEVGEVLONGGE Vernova is a buyable chart consolidating its overbought trend as it digests profit-taking before its next catalyst.$974.43-9.77%›METMETASHORTMeta is a short as its 200-day moving average flattens and rolls over while failing to make new highs alongside the broader market.$565.94+0.38%›MSFMSFTSHORTMicrosoft is flashing a red flag as it retests its spring lows and shows ugly relative weakness against a market making new highs.$393.35-6.72%›GOOGOOGLLONGAlphabet boasts the best chart among mega-cap tech and remains a buyable asset after working off its overbought extension.$355.27+1.54%›

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@The Real Eisman Playbook

1mo

The Q2 2026 Report Card: Who Won, Who Lost, and Why | The Weekly Wrap

IDEAS · 19

GLAGLASLONGLong Glass House Brands: the cannabis world has changed for the better and the company is uplisting to the NYSE following the rescheduling of medical cannabis to class 3.€8.56-3.55%›USOUSOSHORTShort oil: guest experts predict that oil prices will be dropping due to an impending oversupply in the market.$127.10-18.26%›ACNACNSHORTShort Accenture: AI is reducing the need for consulting services, leading to weak net results and a disastrous quarter where the company appears to be buying acquisitions just to hide its underlying weakness.$164.69-27.60%›GEVGEVLONGLong GE Vernova: the company's bundled offering of turbines and electrification equipment, highlighted by a 20-year Microsoft data center deal, makes it one of the best AI power plays.$974.43-8.13%›

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@The Real Eisman Playbook

1mo

The Real State of the American Consumer w/ Three Evercore Analysts | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 65

IDEAS · 29

MCDMCDSHORTFast food paying for 40% COVID price hikes as low-income diners drop out; same-store sales negative$271.18+0.82%›TXRTXRHLONGSteak chains winning as casual dining took less pricing; Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn outperforming$204.03+11.45%›TJXTJXLONGOff-price retailers capturing tax-refund dollars and middle-income trade; TJ Maxx and Ross dominating$158.54-4.26%›ROSROSTLONGRoss Stores off-price model winning big with 17% comps as value-seeking accelerates$246.97+5.06%›

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@The Real Eisman Playbook

1mo

Anthropic Gets Shut Down By the Government and the AI Story Gets More Complicated | The Weekly Wrap

IDEAS · 7

GLAGLASFLONGGlass House Brands gains as cannabis rescheduling lifts cannabis growth and earnings$11.71-12.25%›MTHMTHLONGMeritage homebuilder rerates toward M&A multiples as rates fall back below 4.5%$70.01-9.45%›VVLONGVisa stays an impregnable franchise in a brutal payments space where rivals lose share$370.03+15.03%›FOXFOXASHORTFox falls as it overpays for Roku, valuing it at 57x earnings versus Fox at 10x$58.88-14.68%›

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@The Real Eisman Playbook

1mo

Is Private Equity Destroying the Life Insurance Industry? | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 64

IDEAS · 4

AFLAFLSHORTAflac is overvalued at 16x while the whole life sector trades 4-9x, hence a sell.$127.59-7.23%›LNCLNCLONGLincoln at 4.6x earnings is mispriced after de-risking its toxic SGUL book; rerate higher.$44.97+16.94%›CRBCRBGLONGCoreBridge and Equitable have de-risked but underuse a free ROI home run: aggressive buyback.$31.78+8.13%›EQHEQHLONGMerged Equitable leans into AB growth and efficiency, not riskier spread, so the fee-heavier mix re-rates EQH higher.$48.47+6.88%›

@The Real Eisman Playbook

1mo

Google Raises $85 Billion and the Market Finally Wakes Up | The Weekly Wrap

IDEAS · 7

METMETASHORTAI capex turns big software into capital-hungry hardware firms, so companies forced to raise capital de-rate$565.94+2.51%›ORCORCLSHORTOracle's soaring backlog can't offset its ballooning capital needs, pressuring the stock—›AAPAAPLLONGApple's choice to skip the LLM race looks smart as it avoids capex and partners with Google$303.87+6.45%›DKNDKNGSHORTKalshi uses an addiction model exploiting near-miss psychology to drive more betting$23.10+18.55%›

+3 more ideas →