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“Crude oil futures have dropped back down to around $70.24 USD, wiping out nearly all gains from the conflict.”
@pequityresearch
Iran-US ceasefire removes conflict premium from crude; downtrend must hold to keep the Fed from hiking rates.
WTISHORT@ $107.72
$87.91+18.39%
since call Jun 28
peak +26.5%
in postLONG
“Photonics looks busted, meanwhile equipment suppliers (e.g., Applied Materials, ASML) and chemical/material stocks remain strong.”
@pequityresearch
Semiconductor equipment suppliers named as staying strong while photonics craters; ASML is the dominant named pick with structural WFE tailwinds.
ASMLLONG@ $1,786.13
$1,640.04-8.18%
since call Jun 28
peak +1.9%
“Non-Farm Payrolls (Expected: 114K) and the Unemployment Rate (Expected: 4.3%).”
@pequityresearch
Weak NFP (expected 114K) on July 2 could fuel rate cut expectations and lift equities into July's historically strong seasonal window.
SP500LONG@ $717.16
$731.32+1.97%
since call Jun 28
peak +3.6%
“July boasts an 83% win rate following a down June, with an average historical return of 2.8% since 2005.”
@pequityresearch
SOX RSI cooled to ~42 after overbought pullback; July has an 83% win rate after a down June with avg +2.8% return since 2005, setting up a semis bounce.
SMHLONG@ $606.42
$530.60-12.50%
since call Jun 28
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