Damnang2 — sniff.trade

Damnang2

47 episodes · 76 trades · 1 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@damnang2

4w

This is a small excerpt from the technical, evidence driven valuation section I wrote b…

IDEAS · 1

CBRCBRSSHORTCerebras is a niche low-latency accelerator priced like a general AI platform; stock needs to fall 30-50% before risk-reward is attractive.$200.54-12.07%›

@damnang2

4w

I’ve never seen a more perfect summary image than this. P.S. I translated @euphoria_70…

IDEAS · 1

MUMUSHORTApple using CXMT as pricing leverage forces Micron to cut commodity DRAM prices, pressuring near-term margins$810.35+27.83%›

@damnang2

4w

SHOCKING: Many neocloud executives we spoke with feel that if they have non-NVIDIA netw…

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDALONGNVIDIA's coercive GPU allocation leverage over neoclouds reveals a deeper monopoly moat than the market prices in$199.00+5.14%›AMDAMDSHORTNVIDIA coerces neoclouds away from AMD GPUs, blocking AMD's datacenter ramp at the operator level$482.92+9.32%›

@damnang2

4w

Today, I hosted a CPO seminar for optical experts. I spoke for about 90 minutes on why…

IDEAS · 2

LITLITELONGCPO's unsolved CW laser and optical-loss bottleneck flows directly to Lumentum, which NVIDIA has locked up with a share of a $4B investment and a supply deal$722.73-10.29%›AMAAMATLONGCPO packaging complexity in EIC/PIC stacking and hybrid bonding drives equipment spend directly to Applied Materials, which just launched a full die-to-wafer hybrid bonding platform$502.77-19.95%›

@damnang2

4w

One interesting thing I have been hearing in the market recently is that before moving …

IDEAS · 2

COHCOHRLONGAn intermediate 2.4T step delays 400G-lane optics and extends the 1.6T supercycle, compounding Coherent's already-ramping transceiver volumes.$258.97-30.26%›LITLITELONGA 2.4T intermediate step prolongs the 1.6T optical supercycle, extending Lumentum's supply-constrained demand window before the industry retooling to 400G/lane.$722.73-11.88%›

@damnang2

4w

Cadence is no longer just an EDA company 👍 https://t.co/VHHFe0HyvF https://t.co/yaRRvY…

IDEAS · 1

CDNCDNSLONGCadence's IP portfolio expansion into HBM PHY, UCIe, NPUs re-rates it from EDA tool vendor to AI SoC platform company, expanding its TAM and multiples.$346.47-10.26%›

@damnang2

4w

미국에서 대박나려나? 여기는 40년대 50년대 집도 많고 뭐하나 지으려해도 엄청 오래 걸리는데 😩 https://t.co/hlPlM3Tx03

IDEAS · 1

SMSSMSNLONGSamsung bundles AI appliances into every prefab home it ships, turning 10,000 units into a forced upgrade cycle for its own electronics—IDEA›

@damnang2

4w

😂 https://t.co/52VZcyc3tD

IDEAS · 2

MUMULONGAI-driven DRAM/HBM demand explosion has flipped memory pricing power, making Micron a prime beneficiary as Big Tech spend accelerates$810.35-28.24%›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix, Nvidia's primary HBM supplier, is the single biggest winner of the AI memory supercycle as hyperscaler spending surges—IDEA›

@damnang2

4w

I love his research Will look into it 👀 $POET $SIVE https://t.co/7pwhvCVW79

IDEAS · 1

POEPOETLONGPOET sits in the supply chain to a top-3 hyperscaler via Lumilens, a breadcrumb that could reprice shares before official confirmation.$6.84-26.32%›

@damnang2

4w

How the Memory Tax Gets Solved

IDEAS · 3

MUMULONGStructural DRAM shortage locked in until 2027-2028 as HBM capacity crunch keeps prices historically elevated$810.35-26.87%›SNDSNDKLONGNAND flash is the structural winner of the memory detour — 50x cheaper than DRAM per bit, scalable outside the EUV crunch, and contract prices surging 70-75% as AI systems reroute around DRAM scarcity$1,238.89-41.52%›AMDAMDLONGAMD's acquisition of MEXT, which makes flash behave like DRAM, positions it to win AI inference by routing around the memory tax that is crippling competitors$482.92-8.85%›

@damnang2

4w

After talking with people across the industry, I still hear some engineers say they do …

IDEAS · 2

MUMULONGMemory re-rates from commodity cycle to AI infrastructure pillar; MU valuation has room to surge as skepticism lifts.$810.35-27.18%›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix, the dominant HBM supplier for AI, re-rates as memory transitions from commodity to AI infrastructure; market cap ranking ascent ahead.—IDEA›

@damnang2

4w

For those interested in CXMT, please check out the article below. https://t.co/OmT0dQluWw

IDEAS · 2

MUMULONGCXMT's 700% YoY revenue surge confirms the DRAM supercycle is booming; supply remains extremely constrained, lifting Micron$810.35-27.43%›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix's dominance in server DRAM and HBM widens its pricing premium over CXMT as that gap is structural, not temporary—IDEA›

@damnang2

1mo

I completely agree with what my friend Ren said. I’ve been gradually buying up the disc…

IDEAS · 4

AAOAAOILONGAAOI is an AI optical chokepoint being tranche-bought on a 40% pullback from highs, with a 1.6T shipment catalyst days away$92.16-33.58%›SIVSIVEFLONGSivers Semiconductors is an AI photonics chokepoint being bought on a pullback, with a GlobalFoundries CPO partnership and Nasdaq dual listing as pending re-rating catalysts$3.34-49.69%›SNDSNDKLONGSanDisk is a flash memory chokepoint with 2026 capacity fully sold out and NAND contract prices up 70-75%, being tranche-bought on dips$1,238.89-39.47%›NBINBISLONGNebius is a pure-play AI cloud chokepoint with 841% revenue growth and all GPU capacity through mid-2026 already booked, being tranche-bought on dips$187.43-23.20%›

@damnang2

1mo

Not yet https://t.co/1t8G2u85hB

IDEAS · 1

CBRCBRSSHORTCBRS is ~50% off ATH but hasn't bottomed; concentrated risks make further downside likely.$200.54-12.17%›

@damnang2

1mo

18% sounds like a lot already but the upgrade cost of RAM went up 100% from +$800 to +$…

IDEAS · 2

AAPAAPLSHORTApple's 17–25% overnight price hikes signal demand destruction, not margin gains; stock already down 27% YTD and at 52-week lows.$302.77-6.56%›MUMULONGDRAM shortage forcing Apple to double RAM upgrade prices is the same supercycle making Micron's revenue explode — Q3 up 346% YoY, HBM supply sold out for all of 2026.$810.35-28.75%›

@damnang2

1mo

Having a friend at Apple is such a blessing, isn’t it? 😉 https://t.co/FxIzisWBy1 https…

IDEAS · 1

AAPAAPLLONGAAPL consumer demand stays strong at 52-week lows, making the dip a buy$302.77+6.82%›

@damnang2

1mo

나 완전 저점마수했네 https://t.co/PbTucrzgtv

IDEAS · 1

AAPAAPLLONGApple Store foot traffic is surging while AAPL sits at a 52-week low, signaling demand is intact despite the selloff.$302.77+7.04%›

@damnang2

1mo

$CBRS https://t.co/0SL48IfHVp

IDEAS · 1

CBRCBRSSHORTCBRS IPO euphoria has already begun to unwind; post-IPO mean reversion typically takes shares well below opening levels$200.54-19.02%›

@damnang2

1mo

😎 https://t.co/t0WBioVDhx

IDEAS · 1

AAOAAOILONGAAOI's in-house laser chip advantage and supply-constrained ramp makes the -35% ATH pullback a gift as revenue goes vertical toward $1.1B+ in 2026.$92.16-34.53%›

@damnang2

1mo

While writing this article, I found many positive points about $AAOI . I still believe …

IDEAS · 1

AAOAAOILONGAAOI's vertically integrated InP fab gives it a supply-chain edge as hyperscaler 800G/1.6T orders push revenue toward $1B in 2026$92.16-34.05%›

@damnang2

1mo

Coherent: The Company That Gets Stronger in the CPO Era

IDEAS · 1

COHCOHRLONGCOHR's 6-inch InP ramp is ahead of schedule with booked-out order slots through 2028 and an NVIDIA supply deal through 2030, making supply execution the sole lever on revenue.$258.97-36.00%›

@damnang2

1mo

What Is Qualcomm's Powerful Hidden Strategy for the AI Era?

IDEAS · 2

QCOQCOMLONGQualcomm's HBC near-memory 3D IC architecture, debuted at Investor Day, is a credible wedge into data center AI inference and re-rates the stock above its mobile-only valuation.$148.88-26.10%›MUMULONGLPDDR adoption expanding from mobile into data center AI inference raises demand for DRAM suppliers like Micron, which co-developed the SOCAMM form factor with NVIDIA and already supplies the ecosystem.$810.35-33.79%›

@damnang2

1mo

😝 crazy!!! https://t.co/4UX0e3JDfB

IDEAS · 1

MUMULONGHumanoid robots carry 10x more memory than L2+ vehicles, igniting a multi-decade demand supercycle for Micron$810.35-33.86%›

@damnang2

1mo

7월에 한국가서 미국취업/빅테크취업 세미나를 하기로 했어요 많은 분들이 신청해주셨고 그중 70% 정도가 삼성 분들이에요 https://t.co/b1hiLFqTSs

IDEAS · 2

SMSSMSNSHORTSamsung is losing critical semiconductor engineers to SK Hynix, threatening its HBM4 and non-memory competitiveness.—IDEA›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix is strategically poaching Samsung's top chip engineers with cash bonuses, accelerating its first-mover lead in HBM and advanced memory.—IDEA›

@damnang2

1mo

Great insight This is exactly what I wanted to say https://t.co/KHzAmOVPfH

IDEAS · 1

AAOAAOILONGAAOI's AI optics demand is real but a 600% run while still losing money leaves it vulnerable; staged entries only while it searches for a floor.$92.16-32.70%›

@damnang2

1mo

In celebration of Micron’s insane earnings report, I’m sharing this article once again.…

IDEAS · 1

MUMULONGMicron's AI HBM demand is structural, not cyclical — blowout earnings confirm a permanently higher-margin business.$810.35-33.19%›

@damnang2

1mo

Memory is no longer a cyclical industry

IDEAS · 2

MUMULONGMicron's blowout earnings confirm memory has re-rated from cyclical to structural growth, driven by AI data center demand.$810.35-33.25%›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix, as the dominant HBM supplier, benefits from memory's structural re-rating as AI hyperscalers lock in long-term supply agreements.—IDEA›

@damnang2

1mo

Great info, @PhotonCap !! Hope this article is helpful too!! https://t.co/pyb7dhadzy h…

IDEAS · 2

ATEATEYYLONGAdvantest's new SiPh HVM test partnership locks it into the structural electro-optical test bottleneck as AI datacenter demand for co-packaged optics scales$194.92-8.98%›TERTERLONGTeradyne's early Photon 100 silicon photonics tester is validated by Advantest's entry into the same market, confirming the EO test layer as the next major ATE spend category$372.12-21.65%›

@damnang2

1mo

The One Sentence That Made Me Look at Qualcomm Again: What Hyperscaler Custom Silicon Really Means

IDEAS · 1

QCOQCOMLONGMeta and Microsoft confirmed as Qualcomm custom silicon customers, unlocking a new datacenter AI inference revenue stream.$148.88-34.42%›

@damnang2

1mo

Intel's AI Packaging Bet Against TSMC

IDEAS · 2

INTINTCLONGIntel's packaging moat (EMIB, Foveros) is a second growth axis not yet priced in, set to expand as HBM4 makes advanced packaging the AI supply chain's scarce resource.$88.01-32.56%›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix sits at the center of the HBM4 battlefield as the leading HBM supplier and its 2026 supply is entirely sold out, making memory scarcity the AI era's defining chokepoint.—IDEA›

@damnang2

1mo

The More Anthropic Buys Micron HBM, the Faster Optical Memory Pooling Arrives

IDEAS · 3

MUMULONGHBM sold out through 2026 with 81% gross margins; Anthropic deal and structural shortage push Micron to record profitability.$810.35-21.69%›MRVMRVLLONGMarvell owns both optical memory fabric (Celestial AI) and CXL pooling (XConn), making it the sole public equity for memory disaggregation.$184.16-31.96%›COHCOHRLONGOptical laser and transceiver makers are the unavoidable common layer for memory disaggregation regardless of which optical path wins.$258.97-33.00%›

@damnang2

1mo

Love it 🤭 https://t.co/87JsI4Z8bd

IDEAS · 1

NOKNOKLONGNokia's cloud-agnostic AI autonomy layer across both AWS and GCP gives it a telco moat the market hasn't priced.$9.01-37.38%›

@damnang2

1mo

AAOI: Down 37% From Its Peak. Opportunity or Trap?

IDEAS · 1

AAOAAOILONGAAOI's in-house laser fab bypasses the industry EML shortage bottleneck, setting up a profitability inflection at Q2 and 1.6T volume ramp in Q3/Q4 — all 37% below peak.$92.16-40.21%›

@damnang2

1mo

AAOI: Down 37% From Its Peak. Opportunity or Trap?

IDEAS · 1

AAOAAOILONGAAOI's 37% pullback is a ramp-cost dip, not structural decay — laser self-supply and 1.6T order book point to recovery.$92.16-37.45%›

@damnang2

1mo

The only risk of investing in the Korean market…😩 https://t.co/1ufNp0VQCW

IDEAS · 1

SKHSKHXSHORTKorea's presidential office demands chipmakers share AI profits, putting political ceiling on SK Hynix margins—IDEA›

@damnang2

1mo

I agree with that possibility very much and it will be an opportunity given by the mark…

IDEAS · 2

MUMUSHORTMU set to drop post-ER as elevated expectations collapse — stock flying on hype, not fundamentals$810.35+29.61%›SNDSNDKSHORTSNDK pulled down by MU post-ER contagion; flash memory names move in lockstep with the sector leader$1,238.89+41.34%›

@damnang2

1mo

Cathie Wood bought ~$35M of $SPCX today https://t.co/3Lf64EpMND

IDEAS · 1

SPCSPCXLONGARK's $35M SPCX buy signals high-conviction accumulation of SpaceX pre-IPO shares, bullish for price.$110.00-30.84%›

@damnang2

1mo

You know why SPCX is crashing, right? https://t.co/AneL5EWW9b

IDEAS · 1

SPCSPCXSHORTSPCX post-IPO euphoria is unwinding: thin float, massive dilution, and lockup cliff make further downside likely.$110.00+34.95%›

@damnang2

1mo

SPHBM4: The HBM Packaging Playbook Is Changing

IDEAS · 2

TSMTSMSHORTSPHBM4 bypasses TSMC's silicon interposer (CoWoS), threatening its most defensible AI packaging moat.$394.44+14.88%›MUMULONGSPHBM4 reuses HBM4 DRAM unchanged, lowering adoption barriers and expanding HBM demand for all memory makers including Micron.$810.35-31.96%›

@damnang2

1mo

[속보]SK하이닉스, 삼성전자 시총 역전…25년7개월 만에 1위 교체

IDEAS · 2

SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix overtakes Samsung in market cap for first time in 25+ years on HBM/AI dominance; momentum drives further upside.—IDEA›SMSSMSNSHORTSamsung loses Korea's #1 market cap title to SK Hynix after 25+ years, reflecting structural AI/HBM underperformance; stock continues lagging.—IDEA›

@damnang2

1mo

Great insight, Thanks!!☺️ https://t.co/ZwKTFcDjdu

IDEAS · 2

INTINTCLONGIntel's IPS division is building a CPO/silicon photonics platform for AI datacenters — a stealth pivot the market hasn't priced in.$88.01-34.39%›COHCOHRLONGAI datacenter CPO buildout is pulling optical component makers into a multi-year supply squeeze, with Coherent doubling output and still running short.$258.97-34.11%›

@damnang2

1mo

Must read for OE Solutions https://t.co/ODNUD42K0r https://t.co/LKc2tkDZUU

IDEAS · 2

AAOAAOILONGGlobal EML/CW laser shortage + 800G/1.6T ramp sets up AAOI as the established Western optical transceiver comp to a Korean sovereign challenger$92.16-43.97%›SIVSIVEFLONGSIVEF is the lower-risk CPO laser source play vs speculative Korean challengers, with confirmed embedding in Ayar, Jabil, and multiple hyperscaler suppliers de-risking the volume ramp$3.34-66.47%›

@damnang2

1mo

EMIB: Intel Foundry's Best Hope - Damnang’s Substack

IDEAS · 2

INTINTCLONGIntel EMIB packaging business is growing faster than expected and could win NVIDIA's next-gen architecture, re-rating INTC as an AI infrastructure supplier.$88.01-35.62%›TSMTSMLONGCoWoS supply is chronically constrained with NVIDIA absorbing most capacity, making TSMC the irreplaceable bottleneck of AI chip production.$394.44-13.95%›

@damnang2

1mo

3년간 연봉 80억이면…..🫢 나라도 한국가고 싶겠다…😭 https://t.co/apKDQYK0UN

IDEAS · 2

SMSSMSNLONGSamsung is dangling $5.9M 3-year packages to win back top chip talent — a signal of exceptional memory revenue visibility ahead.—IDEA›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix competing with Samsung on record comp packages signals a booming memory cycle with multi-year revenue locked in.—IDEA›

@damnang2

1mo

Reverse migration from Silicon Valley to Korea? I recently had a conversation with sev…

IDEAS · 2

SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix's massive comp packages to recruit Silicon Valley talent signal exceptional multi-year revenue visibility, bullish for the stock.—IDEA›SMSSMSNLONGSamsung Memory's outsized comp offers and locked-in forward revenue signal a multi-year earnings upcycle for Samsung Electronics.—IDEA›

@damnang2

1mo

Reverse migration from Silicon Valley to Korea? I recently had a conversation with sev…

IDEAS · 2

SMSSMSNLONGSamsung Memory is offering Silicon Valley engineers up to $890K–$5.9M over 3 years, signaling exceptional multi-year revenue visibility and a deepening talent war that will strengthen its competitive moat.—IDEA›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix is competing head-to-head with Samsung in a talent war that implies exceptional forward demand visibility, confirming a memory supercycle that drives multi-year earnings growth.—IDEA›

@damnang2

1mo

Wow, I fed my past memory related articles into this and had it summarize the key ideas…

IDEAS · 2

MUMULONGDDR5 per-wafer profitability overtook HBM in Q1 2026, triggering a manufacturing shift that lifts Micron's DRAM margins.$810.35-29.02%›SKHSKHXLONG12Hi HBM yield crisis (50-60% real-world yields) forces capacity back toward conventional DRAM, SK Hynix profits from both sides of the shift.—IDEA›