SuspendedCap — sniff.trade

SuspendedCap

30 episodes · 42 trades · 1 speakers

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TRACKED TRADES

@ContrarianCurse

4w

Realized that short term I can’t really be cautious memory, short oil, and bullish 5.6/…

IDEAS · 4

DRADRAMSHORTNear-term caution on AI memory semis points to downside for the memory chip basket$51.01+29.46%›WTIWTISHORTAuthor is explicitly short oil near-term, expecting crude prices to fall$87.70+18.12%›MSFMSFTLONGGPT-5.6 broader rollout imminent and Fable game studio debut make MSFT a near-term catalyst play$471.45+24.23%›ORCORCLLONGIf you're cautious memory and bullish MSFT AI, you logically can't be bearish ORCL — the same AI infra wave lifts Oracle$127.77-12.70%›

@ContrarianCurse

4w

So we are clear - this type of memory is fungible. “Oh they can’t sell into the US”. We…

IDEAS · 2

AAPAAPLSHORTApple's margin squeeze from rising memory prices is severe enough to lobby for a Pentagon-blacklisted chip supplier$303.62-4.77%›MUMUSHORTMemory fungibility kills the CXMT-ban bull thesis for Micron: banned chips reroute to China, displacing Micron volumes there$812.70+29.69%›

@ContrarianCurse

4w

I think Larry has blown it https://t.co/qZA3me6dg2

IDEAS · 1

ORCORCLSHORTOracle massively overcommitted to AI infrastructure as token prices commoditize, turning free cash flow deeply negative and exposing the bet as a race to the bottom.$127.77+15.80%›

@ContrarianCurse

4w

Apple likely doesn’t actually believe this will go through But they want to steer the…

IDEAS · 1

AAPAAPLSHORTApple is structurally losing China market share as foreign phone shipments collapse, and chip-sourcing lobbying signals desperation, not a fix$303.62-4.88%›

@ContrarianCurse

4w

*APPLE SEEKS US CLEARANCE TO BUY MEMORY CHIPS FROM CXMT: FT There it isssss. Apple and…

IDEAS · 1

AAPAAPLLONGApple securing CXMT clearance breaks Korean/Japanese memory oligopoly, improving margins and supply resilience$303.62+6.10%›

@ContrarianCurse

4w

Who’s running PR / Comms at OAI now Give them a fuckin raise. Clean since the BG2 disa…

IDEAS · 1

GOOGOOGLLONGAnthropic's Mythos tops OpenAI on ExploitBench; Google as Anthropic's primary backer captures the win$360.52+5.13%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Now maybe rental rates isn’t a perfect demand signal, but they did roll basically exact…

IDEAS · 1

CRWCRWVSHORTGPU rental rates rolling over on excess supply compresses CoreWeave's revenue and margins.$72.01+26.44%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Oh https://t.co/5fCHTedyUi

IDEAS · 3

SMSSMSNLONGSamsung's 1,000 trillion won AI capex plan — the largest in South Korea's history — signals surging long-term semiconductor demand.—IDEA›SKHSKHXLONGSK Hynix's co-announced AI investment push confirms its dominant HBM and AI memory position, extending its lead into the next decade.—IDEA›MUMULONGSamsung and SK Hynix's massive AI capex confirms surging AI memory demand that is already overwhelming Micron's sold-out HBM supply, pushing prices and margins far higher.$812.70-26.89%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

It’s so funny that people are like oh these agreements stop cyclicality You can try …

IDEAS · 1

MUMULONGMicron's HBM4 architecture lead exempts it from commodity DRAM cycle dynamics — demand structurally outpaces supply through 2027.$812.70-27.61%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

There is no fatter torque ways to play dovish rates than $WHR. What a levered fucking pig

IDEAS · 1

WHRWHRLONGWHR is the highest-torque rate-sensitive play — heavy debt load means dovish Fed pivot hits equity value hardest and fastest$38.05-4.45%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Going to be interesting to see which way the framing breaks On one hand and the first…

IDEAS · 1

ORCORCLSHORTOracle is a zero-sum loser in AI infra: FCF cratering from +$50B to -$20B, no internal chip program, chasing capacity at ripping component costs$127.77+13.04%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

In the analog cycle of Covid, MCHP did a pile of PSPs which were noncancellable take or…

IDEAS · 1

KLAKLACLONGAI infra capex boom drives record order visibility for semiconductor inspection equipment; KLAC is the dominant picks-and-shovels play$179.84-31.03%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Basically no need to own the hypers while they continue to ratchet up capex mostly on t…

IDEAS · 2

AMZAMZNSHORTHyperscalers are burning capex on surging memory costs, compressing returns and making the group unattractive to own$265.63-13.89%›MUMULONGMemory prices are the primary cost driver for hyperscaler capex, making memory producers the direct beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout$812.70-31.62%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Oil and the equities look like shit boys

IDEAS · 1

WTIWTISHORTWTI crude oil looks technically weak and is set to fall further$87.70-26.40%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Like many of these super highly followed earnings calls with absolutely obscene IV, the…

IDEAS · 1

MUMUSHORTMicron's earnings-week IV is at 157, crushing its 52-week high — options market is systematically overpricing the move, and vol crushes post-report.$812.70+21.44%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

The Hawkishness is honestly crazy. Why is fucks name with oil sinking fast, PMIs just r…

IDEAS · 2

GOLGOLDLONGFed hike fears overblown; gold rallies as hawkishness fades with oil sinking and consumers weak$4,069.32+2.77%›XHBXHBLONGHomebuilders re-rate higher as Fed hike fears fade with falling oil and strained consumers eliminating any case for tightening$105.36-8.64%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Hock on the peptides? Guy looks great https://t.co/YNXpsLVzUG

IDEAS · 1

AVGAVGOLONGOpenAI names Broadcom as production partner for its first custom AI chip, validating AVGO's custom silicon franchise.$380.25-0.64%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

A hub of innovation https://t.co/67ewf6By18

IDEAS · 1

HOOHOODSHORTMETA entering prediction markets threatens Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue line, pressuring a stock near 52-week highs$84.71+16.89%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Gunna be really tough for $MU tomorrow Margins not revised up? ded Margins revised up …

IDEAS · 1

MUMUSHORTMU faces a no-win earnings setup: every outcome is bearish, and the "cheap valuation" narrative is a trap.$812.70+27.24%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Garry a slight grifter - but this tracks alongside my idea that not being on your phone…

IDEAS · 1

LYVLYVLONGAI saturation makes in-person events scarce and premium, lifting the world's largest live entertainment platform$176.88+6.15%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

$NFLX part internet factor, part quality factor out of favor. Was expensive, growth slo…

IDEAS · 1

NFLNFLXSHORTNetflix margins have peaked as forced content/live spending and franchise weakness compress profitability while growth decelerates$70.31+4.83%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

$META love that they are trying to become basically YouTube now

IDEAS · 1

METMETALONGMeta's YouTube-style video pivot expands its creator ecosystem and ad inventory, lifting revenue per user.$565.46-1.36%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

The entire duration and health of the AI trade will come down to what happens in Memory

IDEAS · 1

MUMULONGMemory is the rate-limiter for the AI trade; Micron, the only US HBM maker at scale, wins if the cycle holds.$812.70-30.02%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

On track https://t.co/qrH9dAMY8y

IDEAS · 1

SPCSPCXLONGSPCX fade is on track toward -30%; once consensus calls it overvalued at the low, it becomes the buy$109.83-33.63%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Ohhhh damn alright. See here I thought at $75 that we were at imminent crisis and going…

IDEAS · 1

WTIWTISHORTIran's Hormuz closure threat is a bluff — oil kept flowing, the geopolitical risk premium collapses, WTI falls$87.70-10.54%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Omggg I can’t believe Carney would do thatttt omg this is criminal, the developers are …

IDEAS · 2

RYRYLONGCanadian banks win in nominal terms as CAD monetary debasement accelerates$211.37+3.20%›AEMAEMLONGCanadian gold miners outperform as CAD debasement crushes purchasing power and gold stays elevated$147.10-13.52%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

I find in drawdowns you should be thinking about staying offensive / front foot of wher…

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTILONGWTI crude oil holds as a macro hedge and roll-yield earner; keep long indefinitely despite recent dip$87.70+10.50%›RKLRKLBSHORTSpace/quantum/misc-tech bubble stocks are newly shorted as overextended narratives; Rocket Lab is the cleanest space-bubble proxy$63.47+39.13%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

Piss these flew. Think that now equipment (which big 4 is around 2T) has become big eno…

IDEAS · 3

ASMASMLLONGSemiconductor equipment big 4 hits ~$2T combined, forcing underweight long-only funds to chase ASML higher$1,644.93-14.80%›AMAAMATLONGApplied Materials, one of the equipment big 4, rallies as $2T sector scale triggers long-only pain-trade re-allocation$504.20-19.73%›ENTENTGLONGEntegris, a hot earnings semi-materials name, benefits from LO re-allocation into equipment as the sector crosses $2T combined scale$117.11-35.91%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

IDEAS · 1

ENTENTGLONGENTG is a buy — author signals aggressive accumulation with "CONSUME"$117.11-33.02%›

@ContrarianCurse

1mo

$MKSI Atotech acq gunna end up being a monster

IDEAS · 1

MKSMKSILONGMKS Instruments' Atotech deal adds recurring consumables revenue and PCB chemistry that the market has yet to fully re-rate$300.01-23.59%›