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“And we still think the risk of a 1998 style correction in markets is is still pretty high over the next one to two quarters.”
@Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
The broader market faces a high probability of a 1998-style correction over the next one to two quarters.
SPYSHORT@ $742.06
EXIT$744.78-0.37%
since call Jul 2
flipped Jul 3 · held 2d · record frozen at -0.37%
Trade on Robinhood →
“you're talking about a 10-year nominal Treasury yield that is a fair value of about, you know, five and a quarter, somewhere about 5.9... you're talking about a bond market that could easily repric to”
@Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
The 10-year Treasury yield will reprice well north of 5% as reduced Fed communication inflates the term premium.
IEFSHORT@ $94.10
EXIT$94.18-0.09%
since call Jul 2
flipped Jul 5 · held 4d · record frozen at -0.09%
Trade on Robinhood →27:22SHORT
“there is a geopolitically driven supply demand imbalance in the Treasury bond market... All of our foreign creditors are changing policy in a way that reduces their demand for these securities while a”
@Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
US Treasuries face a structural supply-demand imbalance as foreign creditors reduce demand while US deficit issuance accelerates.
TLTSHORT@ $86.01
$81.15+5.65%
since call Jul 2
peak +5.7%
34:17LONG
“the markets are going to come to a realization at some point in the next, let's call it, two to three quarters that oh my god, Kevin Walsh is not as hawkish on the balance sheet as we thought. Bitcoin”
@Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
Bitcoin is a mandatory buy under $60,000 as markets will soon realize the Fed is less hawkish on its balance sheet than feared.
BTCLONG@ $61,670
$62,902+2.00%
since call Jul 2
peak +8.3%
34:31LONG
“Gold under 5,000 is a stupid price. we got to buy these assets. We got to, you know, we got to we got to, you know, get back involved on on some of these um more financial repression, monetary debasem”
@Thoughtful Money · Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
Gold is structurally mispriced under $5,000 and will surge as the market wakes up to the reality of ongoing financial repression.
GLDLONG@ $375.70
$374.28-0.38%
since call Jul 2
peak +0.9%
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23:15
27:22
34:17
34:31