“I heard the same people saying that software was a panic move back in the first quarter, and that continues to suck as an investment.”
Software apps are a value trap, fade IGV as the benchmark arbitrage unwinds the service layer
“This is the reason why I am reducing my positions on the memory market. I think that particular market … is further ahead than the optical market for Marvell…”
Selling most of Micron, memory market is furthest ahead in the parabola and due for a speed crash
“At this pace, Joseph Jacks, Anthropic will surpass Alphabet in revenue by mid-2028. … A company that wasn't even close to OpenAI a year ago.”
Anthropic explodes past Alphabet in revenue, demand for intelligence is unlimited
“Unlike the dot-com bubble, there's actually revenues. This will upset many people, and of course it will.”
AI demand is real and unbounded so the AI complex keeps going parabolic, this is no dot-com bubble
“that's why I'm rotating out of semis and moving into the power side, which includes silver.”
Power is the new bottleneck, rotate into utilities, grid, batteries and the names feeding AI electricity
“STRL, a must-read for Sterling Infrastructure... These companies are just starting to see the demand. It's spreading.”
Sterling Infrastructure is a must-read as data center buildout demand spreads to infrastructure builders
“You had the battery names, Fluence, which is part of my power basket. Go read their earnings call... We're gonna need tons of batteries.”
Battery names like Fluence rerate as AI data centers need massive grid storage
“You get wage inflation along with the commodity inflation, that's going to be a problem for the Fed.”
Long-term yields head higher as inflation reaccelerates and the Fed turns hawkish in second half
“Capacity was the biggest mover, dropping— there's no capacity. … the only time we've seen strength like this”
Transportation and logistics are booming on AI capex, capacity is gone and rates are spiking
“Have your PMI trades on and make them all related to AI.”
Copper, grid equipment, nat gas, capital goods rerate as PMI turns up into a late-cycle AI regime
“Here is the second half of the year reality for food prices. … it takes a little while for this to catch up…”
Agricultural commodities and food prices catch up higher in the second half as fertilizer and gas rise
“We have a problem in oil. I show it every single week. We still have no ships going through the strait.”
Oil stays bid for longer as the Strait stays shut and countries rebuild inventories after the scare
“after Nvidia bought Groq, that they were going to benefit dramatically … This name has gone up fivefold in 3 months. It's part of the advanced packaging one.”
Soitec benefits dramatically from advanced packaging after Nvidia bought Groq; up fivefold
“the chemicals, which I think are replacing oil as the commodity of the future aside from semiconductors, because you need chemicals to go into semiconductors.”
Semiconductor chemicals become the structural growth commodity; the pure-play consumables supplier re-rates higher.
“It's the bottleneck side, guys. And Eaton fits in with that as well.”
Eaton fits the energy/electrification bottleneck of the AI buildout
“I sold out of Micron and part of what I bought was NVIDIA this week … the GPU trade now is a lower beta one, meaning the data center buildout.”
Nvidia bought into the data center buildout as a lower-beta trade; rotating Micron proceeds into it
“I'm going into the energy side, the IPPs. It's the bottleneck side, guys. … I'm looking at Vistra. You'll probably see me buy that.”
Energy bottleneck makes IPPs like Vistra the next leg; planning to buy
“The metals are breaking out … I believe we're entering now an inflation stage”
Silver lagging gold and breaking out as inflation stage and negative real yields return
“the tokenized asset rollout scheduled for July 26th … Wall Street clearing giant enlists 50 firms for tokenization launch. Everything's getting prepared.”
DTCC tokenization goes live and institutional capital floods on-chain RWAs, repricing the leading RWA protocol token.
“Bitcoin will be a growing part of everyone's portfolio over the course of the decade. … The boomers are allocating to it.”
Negative real yields and tokenization drive Bitcoin as growing portfolio allocation
“Bitcoin and Ethereum were the other two places outside of silver and Nvidia that I put money into this week as a replacement for Micron.”
Ethereum bought as a Micron replacement on the crypto/AI agent convergence