“NVIDIA is at 10-year lows in their forward PE … this demand is gonna continue into 2030.”
NVIDIA trades at 10-year low forward PE while demand runs to 2030; multiple re-rates higher.
“the COSPI is directly related to this buildout. There's the machinery component, so it's not just semis of the COSPI.”
AI buildout is a physical-capex cycle, not just chips; Korea's machinery plus memory lifts the whole KOSPI.
“I still believe shorting the hyperscalers as a way and being long all of the thematic portfolio I have is still going to work out extremely well going forward…”
Short the hyperscalers (the spenders) and own the thematic buildout names that receive the CapEx.
“when oil was down here … you were around $66. Well, now you're up at almost $90. Chevron's basically unchanged from where we were before the war.”
Energy stocks lag oil's spike; Chevron flat while September oil ran from $66 to $90, mid-cycle catchup.
“The airlines would be the number one risk. … air travel has slowed substantially.”
Airlines are the number-one risk as oil/inflation spike hits demand; air travel already slowing.
“We've got crop prices that are breaking out. So the futures are finally starting to move.”
Oil-driven fertilizer costs plus a forecast strong El Nino push crop futures higher into a late-cycle inflation breakout.
“long-term yields, they're contained in the US. This chart just looks like eventually it's going to break higher.”
Long-term yields break higher globally; 5% on US 30-yr triggers problems, JGB and gilts already broke out.
“it's not tech that's driving everything, it's semis … semis are the biggest contributor”
Semiconductors are the biggest S&P sector at $10T and lead everything as AI CapEx accelerates.
“You had the deals with Meta buys $6 billion of Corning's fiber. You've got all these deals that Jensen has done with both optical fiber, coherent light…”
Optical fiber is early-cycle scarcity; Corning locked by Meta's $6B fiber deal with Jensen's optics buys.
“Severe shortages of Taiwan Semi's most advanced processes are pushing an all-out effort to build blah blah blah.”
Taiwan Semi is a hard constraint on compute; severe shortages of its most advanced processes.
“US spending on power plant equipment expected to triple through 2030s. Again, power is the base of the 5-layer cake.”
Power plant equipment spending triples through 2030s; power is the base of the AI cake.
“lead times for power semiconductors have become extremely stretched because of AI servers … it just broke out of a 5-year high just now”
Power semiconductors are the next scarcity trade as AI server lead times stretch; just broke 5-yr high.
“the chemical side to me is a major theme that will be in a long-term bull market … the amount of chemicals needed, that is not an oil trade”
Chemicals are an unrecognized AI play in a long-term bull market as TeraFab buildout consumes them.
“Chemours is another name within there which I've said to many of you I thought would double this year. Well, we're almost there.”
Chemours doubles this year on its AI-chemical exposure; up ~50-100% already.
“it's found a way to move from $60,000 up to $80,000. Well, that's a 33% rally from the lows, so it is moving.”
Bitcoin rallies from lows; up 33% to $80k, outperforming software and Asia growth, retail to chase.
“I mentioned that I bought MicroStrategy calls into the end of the year. I wasn't targeting short-term because I think this could take a little bit longer…”
MicroStrategy calls into year-end as a leveraged Bitcoin bet once CPI tops 3-month yields.
“I believe that Ethereum is the main important story for the rest of the year. … The usage of the network is what creates value”
Ethereum is the main crypto story of the year; usage and stablecoins give it a DCF-style value.