“Go buy some silver, go buy some analog semiconductors, go buy some chemicals, go buy some energy stocks.”
Buy hard-asset sectors that will exist in 3 years, silver, analog semis, chemicals, energy, over software.
“option traders pile into bets against the software-exposed loan ETF … BKLN. Tons of puts being purchased over the course of the week.”
Software unwind has become a credit event, leveraged loan ETFs break down for first time since 2022 Fed pivot.
“outside of the U.S. and outside of the dispersion, MSCI World ex the US looks fantastic... this chart is going parabolic the other way of IGV.”
Foreign stocks (MSCI World ex-US) go parabolic because they lack the software exposure dragging down the US.
“UBS now sees private credit defaults reaching 15%... 3 weeks ago they said it would hit 13% in worst case. They've already upped it.”
Rising private-credit defaults impair BDC portfolios and dividends as income investors flee; sector shares fall.
“Meta auditor Ernst Young raised red flags on data center accounting. This is a big story...”
Hyperscalers face worst month in a decade as levered capex bets meet slowing AI revenue and credit cracks.
“the financials broke under the 200-day moving average where they closed the week … the KRE, which was down big, the regional banks”
AI-driven private credit cracks bleed into banks; financials break the 200-day MA and regional lenders fall hardest.
“I think it's a very crowded short to be short fixed income … if you want more contagion, and I said this on the webinar…”
Long-duration Treasuries rally as a crowded short unwinds and contagion drives a flight to duration.
“Equity can rally while bonds quietly deteriorate, but when the bond market cracks, equities usually follow. So watch credit. Credit is smarter.”
Financials break down as software credit contagion spreads from equity into private credit into bank stocks
“the dangerous part is that we are probably episodically explosive index moves. That's why I said my whole thesis on this is vol of vol, VIX call options…”
VIX call options and vol-of-vol hedge episodically explosive index moves as Black-Scholes breaks down
“Investors will stop valuing them as software companies and start valuing them as utilities or industrial firms with a lower multiple.”
Software-exposed hyperscalers reprice from software multiples to utility multiples as levered capex meets weak AI adoption
“the final positive note for Bitcoin— my thesis has always been that the only time that the people who own the world's wealth, the $800 trillion…”
Bitcoin becomes the asset wealth flees to as AI makes people doubt public companies, fiat, and everything