“I'm a big believer in foreign markets, emerging markets, and small caps and mid caps. I think this continues. And again, it's all about software...”
US software dominance fades as AI commoditizes it, rotating capital into hardware-heavy emerging markets.
“short abundance … that fits in with the growth story. Anything that has been isolated, think about abundance as a broadening out, the opposite of concentration.”
Long scarcity short abundance: small caps, equal-weight semis broaden out as concentration breaks
“This is the equal weight semi out of the S&P 1500 making new highs and now up 65% since the lows back in May of last year. … Software made new lows.”
Equal-weight semis up 65% while software lags, the scarcity-over-software divergence persists
“short the high multiple AI infrastructure. I still believe the data center buildout will happen.”
High-multiple AI infrastructure names face a bigger Oracle-style fear selloff on buildout bottlenecks
“This is the very, very early innings of what I put out. … these are the semi name— mainly semi names that are in there…”
Advanced packaging index of semis is early-innings, up 12% as data movement becomes the bottleneck
“These are the names with inside the advanced packaging, which fits into the stories that's really floating around on data management.”
Advanced packaging is the new scarcity story as data movement replaces raw GPU compute
“The memory shortage is a massive story and I hear more people fading it. … the Micron story is still real.”
Memory shortage is structural not cyclical, Micron keeps running as supply can't meet AI demand
“this is exactly what I've talked about … many aren't used to seeing these names, transport names…”
PMI turns up after a year of contraction; chemicals and materials cyclicals lead while crowded tech lags.
“Rubin shifts a large portion of inference memory from transient DRAM usage to persistent local storage. That one architectural decision explodes NAND demand.”
NAND demand surging from Rubin architecture shift to persistent local storage, SanDisk rerating
“I think software companies are basically had their Ozempic moment … that's what you're gonna be replacing. People and software budgets.”
Enterprise software incumbents face their Ozempic moment as AI replaces headcount and software budgets
“I have refused to use Microsoft Copilot even though it has improved because I find it to be useless compared to the LLMs...”
Microsoft suffers as Copilot fails to deliver while Anthropic agents leapfrog enterprise software
“This will be a golden age for profit margins for companies that are bloated, like the banks … JP Morgan…”
JPMorgan margins expand as autonomous agents stop headcount from growing with revenue
“we finally got a massive breakout, which says to me the Scarcity trade is on. Long scarcity, short abundance proxy. Long Chevron, short Salesforce.com.”
Scarcity beats abundance: long hard assets and energy, short bloated SaaS as the regime flips.
“The reason I love the pharmaceutical names, 'cause AI drug discovery is right here, right now … this is the beginning of a long-term move.”
Eli Lilly is a top-5 name as AI drug discovery accelerates and pharma starts a long-term move.
“Here's pharma relative to the S&P 1500 all the way back to 2001... This is the beginning of a long-term move. Pay attention to pharma.”
Pharma is at the start of a long-term outperformance move vs the broad market on AI drug discovery.
“It signals AI in healthcare is moving from experimentation to infrastructure … for the bigger health companies, which are bloated, it's going to help for sure.”
Healthcare sector will outperform as ChatGPT Health makes AI infrastructure for big health firms.
“We are building a bottom here, in my opinion.”
Bitcoin bottoming and set for new highs, becoming best-performing asset once it clears resistance.
“Ethereum also ready for a MACD crossing.”
Ethereum is set up for an upside move with a weekly momentum cross ready, following Bitcoin.