“the Strait of Hormuz as an economic choke point has to open back up in order for commerce to work. But we're sitting here today, the straits functionally closed”
Strait of Hormuz stays functionally closed; overcoming the blockade needs major escalation.
“And that's why we are embarking on this enormous... we as a country are embarking on this enormous effort to industrialize in order to add magazine depth to…”
US defense industrial base needs massive multi-year buildout of magazine depth, lifting ordnance and missile makers.
“their magazine depth industrially is so enormous that the calculus becomes, can the magazine depth overcome their institutional weakness... we as a country…”
US shifting to multi-year ordnance contracts to build magazine depth lifts munitions makers.
“But look, I believe in our lifetime China will fall. I believe in our lifetime Iran will fall.”
China is fundamentally illegitimate and will fall in our lifetime, ending up run like Taiwan.
“Drones became commercially viable and cheap. And by virtue of that became a new article of war because they were so inexpensive. It's the cost of losing one…”
Commercial drone tech iterates faster than markets; cheap drones become decisive war mass.
“I don't think Xi needs to go if KMT wins the election... that is a rapprochement party to the CCP... And I believe a bullet may never need to be fired in…”
If Taiwan drifts to KMT accommodation and no invasion, TSM's Taiwan risk discount collapses and its multiple re-rates up.
“And look, they're clearly on the targeting side, these technologies are being used. The signals intelligence, clearly that stuff is being used.”
Defense tech neo-primes are outpacing legacy primes as capital markets fund faster innovation than the Pentagon.
“Venezuela is a perfect example of that. That environment is functionally remade in our interest... can you imagine that 4 months ago?”
Venezuela reopened on US terms hands Chevron expanding licenses and heavy-oil reserves, lifting its growth runway.