“we have 2 hikes priced in over the next year, you should only be looking at cuts here … the entire asymmetry is on the other side.”
Market priced 2 hikes; with negative real wage growth there's no wage-price spiral, so SOFR reprices to cuts
“a gold long is the same reflection of that trade … the entire asymmetry is on the other side. We've hit max asymmetric hawkishness.”
Gold is being whacked on overdone Fed hawk expectations; a long gold is the same trade as long SOFR
“it's clear to me there's more demand destruction going on than what I think people are giving credit for … I just don't see the sustainability of these prices”
Demand destruction plus a potential Hormuz opening means oil falls further than the bull camp expects
“the policy rate is too high on nominal yields while inflation's dropping. So the Fed's kind of too tight here... breakeven's going lower, right?”
If inflation is rolling over and the Fed is too tight, front-end-to-belly yields fall and Treasury prices rally.
“the dollar was basically set up to break out this morning. Like we're watching it tick higher and higher through 100. And this is causing gold imploding.”
Dollar breaking through 100 on hawkish data keeps real yields high, pressing gold lower.
“it's been a straight line of underperformance relative to equal weight, relative to the whole entire market since October … they're increasing capex still.”
Mag 7 is red YTD as buybacks reverse into massive equity issuance; avoid hyperscalers
“don't touch the hyperscalers, buy the things that the hyperscalers are buying … memory is up 3x over the last few months while Mag7 is down year to date”
Don't buy hyperscalers, buy what they buy with issued equity: memory is up 3x while Mag 7 is red
“there's a couple of Bitcoin miners that are selling their Bitcoin to actually finance their AI buildout now.”
Bitcoin miners pivoting power to AI and selling BTC to fund it is pressuring Bitcoin supply
“I'm levered long silver futures”
Levered long silver futures: monetary dilution and a market that just needs hikes not to materialize