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“the persistent inflation prints above 3.5% and soon to be above 4% … it's not that surprising then to see bond yields break closer to 5 if you're running…”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
Short bonds: persistent 3.5%+ inflation soon above 4% keeps sovereign yields breaking out toward 5%
TLTSHORT@ $82.01
$81.49+0.63%
since call May 21
peak +2.0%
“historically central banks don't hike into oil price shocks … we're already almost at 2 hikes priced in from, well, cuts to start the year…”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
Long SOFR futures: market is pricing 2 hikes off an energy shock, but central banks dont hike into oil spikes
SOFRLONG@ $99.97
$101.81+1.84%
since call May 21
20:10SHORT
“there's $4 to $5 trillion quoted of IPO market cap coming to market … that sets the stage for why NASDAQ relative to the rest of the market could be topping…”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
NASDAQ relative topping: trillions of IPO supply plus stretched positioning drain liquidity from tech leadership
XYZ100SHORT@ $29,824.19
$28,058.18+5.92%
since call May 21
peak +6.8%
“the gap between Brent and WTI is closing … if we're running our reserves down and putting ourselves as a country in a more vulnerable position long-term…”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
Cushing and SPR drawdowns keep WTI bid, closing its gap to Brent and leaving a structural premium under WTI.
WTILONG@ $101.11
EXIT$87.68-13.28%
since call May 21
flipped May 29 · held 8d · record frozen at -13.28%
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“as a longer-term play, I think if we're running our reserves down and putting ourselves as a country in a more vulnerable position long-term…”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
Long energy: higher WTI turns US oil and gas into cash printers buying back stock, and a premium stays in oil
XLELONG@ $58.78
$60.13+2.29%
since call May 21
peak +2.3%
“the replacement cost, because everything around it, every, the cost of everything is going up … it just leads to debasement”
@Forward Guidance · Quinn Thompson
Long housing on replacement cost: inflation drives the cost of everything up so home replacement value rises
XHBLONG@ $97.14
$105.39+8.49%
since call May 21
peak +13.0%
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