“The market's screaming growth problem here. Let's say everything goes hunky-dory and oil goes to $80. That's still not good. The Fed's still not cutting.”
Energy shock keeps a hard ceiling on the S&P 500 with no liquidity to rescue it
“the forcing function is probably the equity market for cuts... I was sort of looking at December SOFR futures as like a potential…”
December SOFR futures are interesting as the Fed gets forced to cut by an equity selloff
“every day that goes by that something like this stuff happens, it makes other energy assets globally more valuable and takes supply off more structurally like…”
Energy infrastructure destruction makes natural gas equities structurally more valuable
“we're seeing the fertilizer and the fuel cost to plant, harvest, and grow spike”
Agriculture commodities are the slept-on trade as fertilizer and fuel costs spike into planting season
“it's South Korea, it's China, it's Asian markets predominantly … there's probably a lot more effective plays like shorting, I don't know…”
South Korea equities are the cleanest short, most exposed to the Hormuz LNG cutoff
“I'm in short Japan, short South Korea, short Europe, still smaller than some of my others, but I'm starting in because I'm like medium on the dollar.”
Short South Korea, Japan and Europe equities as the most energy-exposed economies
“Europe is the most exposed and they have the least flexible central bank … I'm in short Japan, short South Korea, short Europe…”
Short Europe equities, most exposed to oil shock with the least flexible central bank
“by suppressing front month CL, you're creating volatility where you can't control it … the back months, like the 2027s and stuff, have been rising further.”
Back-month oil futures rise as front-month suppression transfers vol to where it can't be controlled
“if you did ban exports of oil and gas, people need less dollars, and presumably the dollar would fall on that…”
A US oil and gas export ban would shrink global trade and pull the dollar lower
“if you have further shortages on those key inputs and either the price rises or there's shortages, both of those equal less AI data center buildout.”
Helium and input shortages throttle AI data-center buildout; the pure GPU-cloud builder slips on delays and debt.
“all these countries, they're going to need to double, triple, quadruple their security budgets … this is a pretty big like crowding out effect as well from…”
Surging global defense budgets crowd out private investment