“Brent is around $100, it's been surging … I think it makes a global recession very, very probable.”
Brent near $100 and Strait of Hormuz risk make global recession very probable, oil stays elevated
“Probably get a few cuts this year actually as the situation unfolds.”
Front-end pricing of Fed hikes is offside, Fed will look through oil and likely cut a few times this year
“you're kind of looking at like a minimum sort of 6-month pause on Fed action. Unless you get a very significant deterioration in the labor market.”
Restrictive Fed plus oil shock puts a lid on risk asset prices and multiples, bad year for stocks
“on the other side of the Atlantic, you have all these countries that are much more acutely exposed to what's going on in Iran … we would see…”
Safe-haven flows keep the dollar rallying as Europe and Middle East are most exposed to the war
“Bitcoin's been honestly holding up quite well relatively”
Bitcoin holding up relatively well versus other risk assets through the geopolitical shock
“But secularly, we all know what comes on the other side of this, and I don't think the metals trade is over from a multi-year basis.”
Gold remains a multi-year secular bull despite the near-term flush, debasement story intact long-term
“gold is really much trading in line with equity. So it's trading like a risk asset.”
Gold is trading like a risk asset, overpositioned, can keep falling near-term as speculators sell to raise liquidity
“their policy is to shrink, as Joseph said, the Fed balance sheet, their footprint, unwind holdings.”
Bank deregulation and Fed balance-sheet shrink push long-end yields up, steepening the curve
“the most clear thing to bet on is rising volatility into that event due to the level of desperation, high stakes.”
High-stakes midterms plus sliding incumbent polling keep an implied-vol bid building into a fixed November date.
“an area I'm watching really closely because I'm— it's probably the trade I'm most bullish on is the agricultural space.”
Agriculture is the most bullish trade as energy spikes cause fertilizer and food inflation amid record-low farm margins