“bonds are just sitting here like, oh crap … Bonds are trend down, trend down, puke on that”
Long bonds are dead money and terrible risk-reward as deficits blow out either way and basis traders dump them in crises
“So the way I'm thinking about it is that I'm extremely bullish the dollar here. I think it could severely rally when you contrast that with positioning in the…”
Dollar set for violent rally as Europe and Asia face energy-shock recession while everyone is short USD
“on a medium-term basis, I'm absurdly bullish gold because nobody wants to own treasuries in a crisis. I think initially it would get caught up with that.”
Gold gets caught in a violent dollar rally short-term but is absurdly bullish medium-term as no one wants treasuries
“Luckily, I was heavier in nat gas, oil equities, and the agriculture commodities, which I'm really bullish on.”
Long oil equities as a physical supply shock from Hormuz keeps energy prices elevated
“everyone's just buying puts as protection. So everyone's quote unquote hedged. But the problem is puts haven't made any money for weeks...”
Buying puts is a trap right now as elevated vol means theta burns and nobody monetizes hedges in a slow walk-down
“this is the most obvious stair-step walk-down market right now, like you could possibly see.”
Short the broad market in a clean stair-step walk-down, with software and semis the weakest names
“I got out of my semis on Monday, rotate that in the software and defensive, like Walmart, Costco.”
Long defensive consumer staples like Walmart and Costco as a recession hedge in an equity downturn
“I rotated into software shorts when they peaked out, but then I got out of my semis on Monday, rotate that in the software and defensive, like Walmart, Costco.”
Short software stocks rotating out of semis as the rally peaks into an economic downturn
“The one thing that I think could make sense is a steepener because you're kind of screwed in long-term inflation if you don't and screwed if you do … I would…”
Curve steepener is the cleanest rates trade as you're screwed on long-term inflation whether the Fed acts or not
“the Strait of Hormuz is one of the biggest distributors of helium in the world. That's offline right now … Helium isn't like at all.”
Hormuz helium freeze chokes the chip supply that the AI buildout runs on, pressuring the buildout's keystone stock.
“they have all of it. This is their land, this is their people, this is their family, and they're going to fight till the bitter end … they can keep that…”
Oil spikes to $150-200 as Iran keeps the strait closed and has the will to fight to the bitter end
“Bankruptcies across farms in the US are up over 40% year over year … a lot of futures positioning is still short these assets.”
Agricultural commodities about to moon as farmer recession plus an oil supply shock light unprepared, short positioning
“Every private credit fund gated. … It's all gated. No one can get their money back.”
Private credit gating breaks the retail wrapper; the manager's fee-AUM machine and premium multiple deflate.