“even once it is solved, I think the market's really underappreciating the restocking efforts that are going to have to take place … those longer-dated oil…”
Long-dated oil set to grind higher as US reserves drain and restocking premium builds
“it's in the 96th … I'd rather be selling like the price of insurance”
With oil vol at the 96th percentile, sell the expensive insurance rather than pick a direction
“the one thing we are short is power and we're trying to rebuild our nuclear base”
US is structurally short power for AI and the fix is nuclear, so uranium and its scarce supply chain bid up.
“There is a across-the-board rerating of earnings right now. It's not just an AI thing. It's across the board. Like the economy is ripping.”
Across-the-board earnings rerating, not just AI, keeps the broad equity tape ripping
“There's no commodity on your screen that's not ripping. It's cocoa, cattle, soybeans, corn, wheat... Everything. Because this is how inflation starts.”
Commodities broadly are ripping as run-it-hot policy ignites inflation like 2021
“I'm actually really bullish on real estate, land, buildings, and homes in coveted areas … the replacement costs go up”
Bullish real estate in coveted areas as soaring replacement costs underpin home values
“in 2022, yields and economic growth kicked higher when the Ukraine-Russia war calm down because it meant that global growth was okay...”
Bonds are screwed: run-it-hot policy plus a war-end growth surge pushes yields higher
“Every time they intervene to put a lid on USDJPY or Japan sells oil futures or Bessan is doing some debt issuance shenanigans…”
Gold outperforms stocks and beats Bitcoin as intervention games stack up the catalysts
“the baton probably goes back to metals from the other risks like Bitcoin. I mean, you can probably see that in the chart right now.”
Sell Bitcoin and rotate to gold as the safe-haven baton hands back to metals
“the NASDAQ price to free cash flow is a lot higher than the PE ratio … if AI productivity doesn't really come through…”
Nasdaq megacaps face a reckoning as CapEx-driven free cash flow lags reported earnings
“this is S&P call volume... stuff like this makes me really, really concerned because it's all a giant, you know, just a giant like gamma trade...”
Record retail S&P call buying built a giant short-gamma trade; the unwind dumps the index hard and fast.
“I'm trying to get my hands on as much fixed year, 30-year debt as I possibly can … we're going to see rates go from 6 to 10 and home values double again in…”
Get as much fixed 30-year debt against property as possible; replacement costs and inflation make leveraged homeownership a winner
“That's quadruple in like 10 years. … go look at every agricultural commodity on your screen and tell me that's not going to get worse”
Agricultural and food commodities keep inflating hard; prices have multiplied and will get worse