“reducing the duration and the Fed's footprint in long-duration treasury bonds, he seemed pretty steadfast on that … it was all hawkish long end…”
A Warsh Fed shifting out of long Treasuries lifts the supply at the long end, pushing 20yr+ yields up and prices down.
“the consumer's still spending even though prices are going up at the pump a lot. The ADP data, weekly employment changes, it's just surging right now.”
US economy is reaccelerating, with strong retail sales, surging employment and bank lending
“But now you don't need it. There's, there's a fundamental change in society. I don't understand how there's not like a depression in this stuff … how many…”
Commercial office real estate faces structural collapse as AI and work-from-home gut demand
“the dollar has a super negative correlation right now to gold, to Bitcoin, to equities”
Dollar is being actively suppressed and manipulated, setting up eventual repercussions for it
“the plebs are rising together in one way or another, and that's generally inflationary … you have to figure out where capital is going”
Redistribution and populist fiscal pressure entrench inflation and fiscal dominance, lifting gold as the asset that cannot be printed.
“states are now stopping data center builds … what it really does is put a premium on the monopolies that do allow for it.”
Data centers funnel into permissive Texas as other states block builds, tightening ERCOT power and lifting merchant generators.
“my bet is that actually dollar dominance goes up a lot because of stablecoins … everything just points to, yeah, dollar dominance rising.”
Dollar dominance is rising, not falling, and stablecoins push it higher still
“if the yen really breaks 160, the dollar wrecking ball kind of, if it breaks with volume and power…”
If the yen breaks 160 with power, a dollar wrecking ball triggers credit problems
“I personally think that the yen starts to weaken and the 160 level breaks. Obviously they're going to jawbone it to the heavens to try and prevent it from…”
Yen breaks 160 and weakens; Japan is short all its energy and food, can't defend
“I think a great barbell hedge to that is going long December oil contracts. … The December contracts are still up there and heading higher.”
Long December oil contracts as a barbell hedge; oil barely off highs and heading higher
“I'm in the bets that I built earlier in the month of this compute thing, and I'm not in calls. I'm just in boring shares. … this Intel earnings today”
AI compute names like Intel have legs; ride boring shares through the vol washout
“every pension's underweight non-ESG stuff … that's why there's still alpha”
Non-ESG energy stocks rerate higher as pensions flip from underweight to buying