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“given the strong employment numbers and the inflation numbers as well, which we'll talk about, the probability that the Fed will cut rates this year is near…”
@The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman
Fed on hold or hiking with inflation reaccelerating pushes the 10-year past 4.5%, dragging long-bond prices down.
TLTSHORT@ $85.76
$81.28+5.22%
since call Jun 12
peak +5.2%
“the tech industry is being transformed from a capital light model to a model of insatiable need for capital…”
@The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman
Oracle's soaring backlog can't offset its ballooning capital needs, pressuring the stock
ORCLSHORT@ $183.89
EXIT—
since call Jun 12
peak +37.5%
flipped Jul 27 · held 45d · record frozen
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“So I think investors are rethinking their commitments to companies that might have to raise capital like Meta and perhaps even Microsoft.”
@The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman
AI capex turns big software into capital-hungry hardware firms, so companies forced to raise capital de-rate
METASHORT@ $580.48
$565.54+2.57%
since call Jun 12
peak +6.7%
“Apple long ago abandoned participating in the LLM race. And given how much AI CapEx keeps going up, that's starting to look like a great decision.”
@The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman
Apple's choice to skip the LLM race looks smart as it avoids capex and partners with Google
AAPLLONG@ $285.45
$304.09+6.53%
since call Jun 12
peak +18.1%
“Cauchy is a company that I believe uses an addiction model to increase the level of customer betting.”
@The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman
Kalshi uses an addiction model exploiting near-miss psychology to drive more betting
DKNGSHORT@ $28.36
$22.97+19.00%
since call Jun 12
peak +22.5%
“Hasbro has reinvented these games using an addiction model, and that is fueling most of its profitability.”
@The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman
Hasbro reinvented Magic and D&D into addiction-driven scarcity machines fueling most of its profit
HASLONG@ $82.69
$91.86+11.09%
since call Jun 12
peak +15.0%
“Holding periods are now stretching to 7 years and more, which is upsetting investors, all of whom want their money back.”
@The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman
PE is stuck with trillions unmonetized and software-heavy books marked down, so manager equity rerates lower.
BXSHORT@ $123.16
$126.83-2.98%
since call Jun 12
peak +1.3%
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