“They went 40% up on pricing … they are paying the price for that”
Fast food paying for 40% COVID price hikes as low-income diners drop out; same-store sales negative
“Those guys are doing much better, and you're seeing way more winning stories, particularly steak chains. … LongHorn's done even better than them.”
Steak chains winning as casual dining took less pricing; Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn outperforming
“Off-price retailers capturing tax-refund dollars and middle-income trade; TJ Maxx and Ross dominating”
Off-price retailers capturing tax-refund dollars and middle-income trade; TJ Maxx and Ross dominating
“You're a killer value equation at off-price where you get these brands for much cheaper than a department store.”
Ross Stores off-price model winning big with 17% comps as value-seeking accelerates
“maybe $150,000 household that would have never considered shopping at Walmart, right, signs up for Walmart Plus and realizes, wait a second…”
Walmart winning trade-in from higher-income households via value and delivery as middle gets squeezed
“Companies like Chipotle are thinking about that and saying, how do I make sure that Chipotle is the answer to the question you're going to ask your phone in…”
Chipotle positioned to win agentic AI search; convenience and wellness make it the AI answer
“it's starting to accelerate to the downside … their designer left a year and a half ago”
Lululemon decelerating to the downside as designer departure, fading product and Alo competition bite
“The belly of the EBIT of this company is Old Navy … their comps are just not keeping up. That's all the opportunity. We already know Gap's good.”
Gap turnaround hinges on Old Navy; Gap brand thriving but Old Navy stuck in low single digits
“They gave up some shelf space and the competition got much, much harder. … competitors seized on the opportunity”
Nike turnaround taking far longer than hoped as DTC misstep let On, Hoka seize share
“competitors seized on the opportunity … brought very modern footwear in”
On Running and Hoka stealing Nike's share with modern, doctor-recommended footwear
“they may not be that much market share left there … Macy's is getting close to that 400 stores that are survivable go-forward store.”
Department stores less of a short as Macy's nears survivable store base and off-price saturates
“Kohl's has got a lot of cash. Kohl's has got 30% of their— Kohl's is doing 30% of their market cap in free cash this year.”
Kohl's throws off cash worth a huge slice of its tiny market cap; any re-rate toward that yield lifts the stock.
“Yeah, Starbucks has turned. Yes. I mean, the question is how powerfully and when will the profitability kick in?”
Starbucks turnaround real with 7% US comps; question is when margins kick in
“So the Wendy's of the world are having a really, really rough go and you would stay away from them.”
Wendy's is having a really rough go and you would stay away as protein trend punishes laggards
“Olive Garden's struggling to do zero … LongHorn brand's doing probably a 10% or 11% same-store sales growth.”
Olive Garden (Darden) struggling at zero comps while LongHorn does 10-11% in a pro-protein world
“The easier names are Yum Brands on the long side. Taco Bell's killing it. They're going to spin off Pizza Hut.”
Yum Brands becomes a clean mid-teens global grower after Pizza Hut spinoff, Taco Bell killing it
“Brinker, very cheap for what it is. 10 times free cash flow for a company that's comping mid-single digits. One of the best managements in the space.”
Brinker is too cheap at 10x free cash flow for a mid-single-digit comper with best-in-class management
“There's food names like the cocoa exposed companies, which are obviously the chocolate companies, which is Mondelez and Hershey. Right. Those are our longs.”
Hershey and Mondelez outperform as cocoa price relief cliffs into 2027 earnings
“the cocoa exposed companies, which are obviously the chocolate companies, which is Mondelez and Hershey. Right. Those are our longs.”
Mondelez outperforms on cocoa price relief flowing through to 2027 earnings
“So we're talking upwards of 6% inflation for Campbell Soup … Good luck. Yeah. All the best.”
Campbell Soup faces 6% cost inflation it cannot pass on, with structural carb/legacy decline
“people are spending money on food, but often it's to this wellness stuff and away from the big legacy brands in carb-ish type stuff … It's just a very dark…”
Legacy carb-skewed food companies face structural decline from GLP-1, protein and share loss
“calorie consumption is down 2% in America right now. Year over year. A lot of it's due to alcohol. … Alcohol's declined tremendously.”
US alcohol drinking rate hits record low and keeps falling, breaking the volume growth story for beer-wine makers.
“people are spending money on food, but often it's to this wellness stuff and away from the big legacy brands in carb-ish type stuff … it's just a very dark…”
Kraft Heinz a prototypical legacy carb brand in structural decline, stay away
“two-thirds of their store it's easily disintermediated online … that's the trickiest part, especially if those other avenues of getting product get it cheaper…”
Best Buy stuck with flat earnings as two-thirds of its store is disintermediated online
“The reason we like Home Depot is actually the investments they've been making. To expand the TAM to $1.2 trillion…”
Home Depot wins when housing unlocks because pro investments expanded TAM to $1.2 trillion
“in the last 12 months, they've pivoted. I think they've said that they want to go after Pro more aggressively. They've made a couple acquisitions.”
Lowe's less preferred than Home Depot: late to pro, levered up over 3x, slowed buybacks
“Costco grew as a limited SKU membership model … that's what makes that shocking value that makes the renewal rates 92% at Costco…”
Costco's limited-SKU membership model with 92% renewals is a durable moat vs Amazon and Walmart
“they had a great year last year. They were seen as very good tariff-protected companies...”
Auto parts retailers' comps decelerate sharply as tariff-driven pricing cycles out
“their prices have driven this. They're up 60%”
Ralph Lauren is retail's surprise winner, lifting prices 60% via methodical brand elevation