“they were EBIT positive per The Wall Street Journal... returns are there”
EBIT-positive status at frontier-AI scale is the inflection point the market was waiting for. Baker says private AI companies will generate $200-400B ARR at 80%+ margins by year-end — Anthropic is the clearest demonstration that the GPU ROI debate has been settled in the bulls' favor.
“I think going to a city where you can't get in a Waymo or a cyber cab is going to feel barbaric and unsafe... whatever individual municipalities decide... I…”
Gavin's conviction that robotaxis are inevitable and that municipal bans won't hold is a directional bet on the scaled self-driving leader. Waymo sits inside Alphabet, so the cleanest public expression of that view is a GOOGL long.
“I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here. And as I've told you, that will get merged in.”
Chamath treats a Tesla-into-SpaceX consolidation under one Elon entity as a near-certainty, and unlike privately held SpaceX, Tesla is the only publicly tradeable leg of that merger. A long on TSLA is the routable way to own the upside if the entities combine.
“You have memory makers that, you know, three to five times PE. You have Nvidia at a really low PE... If the multiples on Nvidia and memory are correct,…”
Gavin's argument is that if Nvidia's low multiple is correctly priced, then memory makers at 3-5x PE are the asymmetric re-rate candidate in the same AI complex. Micron is the cleanest listed pure-play memory name at that depressed multiple, so the inefficiency routes to a Micron long.
“there's a narrative that Nvidia is losing share to the TPU. And Broadcom guided for 143% year-over-year growth in their AI semiconductor revenue”
ASIC vendors dodge MLPerf because they lose; the Nvidia share-loss story is shadows
“Those older GPUs, they have a useful life for ten or fifteen years”
The non-obvious mechanism: if GPUs depreciate over 10-15 years instead of 2, asset-backed financing rates compress from 20%+ to ~6% — a structural WACC improvement that makes CoreWeave's GPU inventory dramatically more profitable per dollar deployed.
“this is one of those things that could be a catalyst for a credit crisis because there's a lot of people that are in this carry trade”
Yen carry trade participants are long US Treasuries funded by cheap yen borrowing. If Japan's rates rise and the yen strengthens, forced liquidations hit long bonds first — the same dynamic that caused the Aug 2024 vol spike, now with a more fragile US fiscal backdrop.
“NVIDIA's AI business is growing faster than broadcoms. Faster than a lot of other companies”
The market has priced in ASIC share-loss risk. Baker's real-data point is that NVDA's AI segment is outgrowing Broadcom's ASIC business AND hyperscaler capex — which means share is actually expanding, not contracting. The $20B CPU business is additive upside that consensus hasn't modeled.
“every day the Strait of Hormones is closed, think it's relatively good for the reindustrialization of America”
The non-obvious asymmetry: the US is a net gas exporter, so Hormuz closure raises global LNG prices and benefits US producers while punishing Europe and Asia. Baker is framing this as a competitiveness tailwind for US industry, not just a commodity trade.
“electricity is a base input to every manufacturing or industrial process... And what we make electricity with in America overwhelmingly is natural gas... NG1.…”
Strait of Hormuz closed: global LNG up 100-200% while US natgas stays cheap, reindustrializing America