All-In Podcast — sniff.trade

All-In Podcast

Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg.

63 episodes · 372 trades · 54 speakers

all speakers ▾

TRACKED TRADES

@All-In Podcast

2d

The $1/Hour Robot Is Coming: Four Industry Leaders Explain What’s Next

IDEAS · 1

TSLTSLALONGTSLA is developing autonomous humanoid robots to create the exact robotic labor abundance the speaker predicts.$309.37+2.97%›

@All-In Podcast

1w

The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?

IDEAS · 6

NYTNYTLONGThe New York Times is a top AI winner as frontier language models hit parity and value shifts to the owners of proprietary training data.$75.55+3.25%›RDDRDDTLONGReddit is positioned as a massive AI winner because language models are commoditizing and the real value is shifting to data owners.$138.14-16.17%›GOOGOOGLLONGAlphabet's YouTube will capture massive AI value as language models hit parity and the leverage shifts to proprietary training data owners.$355.22+9.69%›METMETASHORTA US ban on open-source AI would wipe out Meta's massive investments in its Llama foundation models.$566.28+6.63%›

+2 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

1w

Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?

IDEAS · 1

NVDNVDALONGNVDA captures the exponential compute demand driven by the transition to video and AI world models.$198.03-5.23%›

@All-In Podcast

1w

Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters

IDEAS · 8

PYPPYPLLONGPayPal is poised for a higher acquisition premium as the current $60 bid is likely to be topped by a 10-15% higher offer.$56.20-2.44%›VVSHORTVisa faces a structural threat as a combined Stripe, Block, and PayPal vertically integrates to offer zero-cost payment rails.$369.84-2.65%›MAMASHORTMastercard faces a structural threat as a combined Stripe, Block, and PayPal vertically integrates to offer zero-cost payment rails.$563.37-2.46%›UBEUBERLONGUber's acquisition of Delivery Hero is highly accretive, jumping revenue by 24% against only a 10% equity dilution.$71.55+0.24%›

+4 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

3w

AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie

IDEAS · 7

PLTPLTRLONGPalantir captures the enterprise AI market as companies refuse to hand their proprietary data and alpha over to frontier labs.$125.64-4.42%›NVDNVDALONGNvidia benefits from a massive new long tail of enterprise buyers as companies roll their own open-source models on local hardware.$198.03+3.40%›AAPAAPLLONGApple captures massive enterprise hardware spend as companies equip every employee with high-RAM local machines to run private AI.$333.02+7.90%›DELDELLLONGDell captures massive enterprise hardware spend as companies equip every employee with high-RAM local machines to run private AI.$400.20+3.35%›

+3 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

4w

Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter

IDEAS · 1

MUMULONGMicron remains cross-sectionally cheap as new supply chain agreements lock in floor pricing above prior cycle gross margin peaks.$809.76-27.94%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen’s $56B Plan to Take Over eBay

POSITIONS · 1

RCRyan Cohen

GMEGMELONGGameStop transformed into a profitable collectibles leader with a cash hoard and growing earnings$21.68+0.66%›

IDEAS · 1

EBAEBAYLONGGameStop acquiring eBay would unlock a stagnant marketplace via cost cuts and live commerce growth$114.78+6.17%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal

IDEAS · 4

SPCSPCXLONGSpaceX is a one-of-one that grows into and past its IPO valuation as revenue compounds$108.27-40.56%›SP5SP500LONGIran peace MOU with enriched uranium removal sends the market to the moon$7,360.71-0.28%›BABBABALONGAs open-weight models commoditize the AI stack, value flows to the cheap-cloud open-source leader, lifting Alibaba.$123.08+12.83%›WTIWTISHORTBulk uranium removal makes Iran's setback durable, draining the last Middle East war premium from oil.$88.61-13.14%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections

IDEAS · 5

WTIWTILONGIf China's oil reserves run dry and it buys 3M extra barrels a day on the spot market, crude spikes to $150-200$88.61+6.08%›XYZXYZ100LONGThe larger a company already is, the higher its odds of multiplying again, so own the largest tech mega-caps$27,875.38-4.38%›TBTTBTLONGInflation and out-of-control spending push overnight rates north of 5.5-6% under a Warsh Fed$39.00+8.25%›BABBABALONGUS AI safety limits push enterprises to Chinese open-source models, led by Alibaba's Qwen$123.08+8.08%›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

1mo

All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live

POSITIONS · 4

AIAll-In Podcast

MGMMGMLONGMGM is a triple: Osaka casino and a Dubai option are hidden assets the market ignores, with Diller bidding.$44.00-5.14%›TLNTLNLONGTalen Energy doubles by sitting still and could 3x: clean baseload power scarce as AI demand explodes.$334.01-2.28%›AKTAKTSLONGAktis Oncology could be worth $200/share if one radiopharma program hits, with data catalysts in 2027.$22.01+14.32%›GEOGEODLONGGEODNET runs the world's largest and fastest-growing RTK positioning network — the precise-location rails for robotics and physical AI — and returns ~80% of revenue to GEOD holders via open-market buybacks.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 1

TLNTLNSHORTTalen faces a big external risk: US regulation could cap power prices or hamper terrestrial compute.$334.01+2.28%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

Senators John Fetterman and Dave McCormick: Bipartisanship, Money in DC, Datacenters, Graham Platner

IDEAS · 2

CBRCBRSLONGUS wins the AI race only by building data centers and energy now; a moratorium hands the lead to China.$201.80-16.51%›WTIWTILONGHolding Iran accountable keeps energy prices and inflation elevated near term.$88.61-1.69%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

Dan Dreyfus: The Next AI Bottleneck is Copper

IDEAS · 6

SLVSLVLONGSilver stocks out in 3 years on a 200M oz annual deficit, with solar and space data centers adding demand$52.04-16.90%›GLDGLDLONGHard assets and commodities win as $140T in US debt and liabilities force currency debasement$4,041.07-3.48%›GEVGEVLONGRising electricity prices and blackouts as a post-WWII grid fails just to meet ordinary demand$973.63+6.23%›MPMPLONGChina's grip on rare earth processing persists; processing not mining is the bottleneck$40.69-24.86%›

+2 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

1mo

Bill Maris: How Google Could Crush AI Competitors, Why Small Funds Win, and AI's Atari Stage

IDEAS · 3

GOOGOOGLLONGGoogle can cut token prices ~80% and break OpenAI/Anthropic's unit economics, owning the AI cost war.$355.22-0.03%›OPEOPENAISHORTOpenAI's valuation is unsupportable: a trillion in spend on $60B revenue dumped on retail bag holders.—IDEA›NVDNVDALONGThe AI win is in the infrastructure layer, physics engines and chips, not bigger models.$198.03-0.96%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

Palo Alto Networks CEO: "AI Found 5 Years of Bugs in 6 Weeks"

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

PANPANWLONGAI-driven cyber threat boom raises terminal value of cybersecurity; Palo Alto on path to $1T from $238B.$328.26+21.20%›

IDEAS · 7

CRMCRMSHORTAnalytical SaaS is dead: LLMs run queries directly on data, killing the incremental-module sales model.$187.80+0.81%›SNOSNOWLONGInfrastructure software undervalued: enterprises will store 10x the data in 3 years to defend and run AI.$293.65+22.03%›MDBMDBLONGMongoDB benefits as enterprises 10x stored data for AI memory and cyber defense.$336.81-4.62%›ORCORCLLONGOracle benefits as core storage infrastructure for the 10x enterprise data buildout.$127.63-40.12%›

+3 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

1mo

Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel

IDEAS · 1

SPCSPCXLONGPublic markets repricing privates: late-stage demand wave coming as long-only funds re-up post-IPO, marginal trade is up$108.27-38.00%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel

POSITIONS · 2

AIAll-In Podcast

CBRCBRSLONGCerebras' dinner-plate die with memory next to compute runs inference 15-18x faster than GPUs, a new silicon winner$201.80-18.30%›PLPLLONGPlanet Labs is venture-style 10x happening in public markets as AI unlocks a $75-100B Earth observation market$20.26-37.07%›

IDEAS · 1

PLPLLONGSpace-based data centers become cheaper than ground once launch hits $200-300/kg, likely within 2-3 years via Starship$20.26-37.07%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

XHBXHBSHORTThird Point is short homebuilders on a dual thesis: the sector is structurally impaired by hidden land-pool liabilities dressed up as asset-light options, and post-COVID cost inflation has outrun what buyers can afford at current mortgage rates. Loeb explicitly confirms the position is live.$105.30+0.55%›

IDEAS · 2

NVDNVDALONGTreated as a safe short by long-short pods forced to hedge, but undervalued on next 2-3yr earnings$198.03-6.18%›NVRNVRSHORTHomebuilders all pretending to be asset-light NVR while really committed to land pools; the post-COVID inventory hangover squeezes them$6,145.25+0.96%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave Is Coming… and We have Never Seen Anything Like It

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

ANTANTHROPICLONGThe presenter pairs a pure scaling stake with two corroborating facts he volunteers later: a reported profitable month and that the model-commodity narrative has been thoroughly disproven. He is long the franchise, not just the IPO event.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 4

SPCSPCXLONGHis SpaceX framework is that valuation rises per launch as the model shifts from one-off government revenue to recurring Starlink constellations to a platform, and Starlink alone targets the $200-400B global telco profit pool. The business stake is bullish even though he disclaims the exact IPO price.$108.27-38.55%›MUMULONGAI memory per user could 5x and there is no TSMC for memory, so supply stays tight$809.76-25.00%›METMETALONGAI-enabled ads at Meta/Google go from 25% to 100% penetration, a $150B revenue pillar—IDEA›VZVZSHORTStarlink eats the $200-400B global Telco profit pool with a better, tower-free product$47.00-5.19%›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

Bill Ackman at All-In: business quality, the SaaS apocalypse, and building the next Berkshire

POSITIONS · 2

AIAll-In Podcast

HHHHHHLONGAckman is reshaping Howard Hughes into a Berkshire-style insurance compounder, redirecting real-estate cash flow into a Buffett float-and-surplus model, and frames the entry as buying assets at roughly 60 cents on the dollar. The stake is a long bet that the conglomerate transformation closes the discount to liquidation value.$62.97+0.91%›MSFMSFTLONGAckman argues capital is chasing the new new thing (chips, semis, energy) while durable megacaps get left behind, the same way Berkshire was cheapest at the 2000 internet peak. He owns Microsoft, Meta and Amazon and confirms 'Yes' they are undervalued, with Microsoft the name he most directly defends as a low-disruption-risk platform.$473.92+9.89%›

IDEAS · 4

CRMCRMSHORTAckman singles out Salesforce as the kind of high-priced enterprise software whose monopolistic per-customer pricing is exposed as AI lets buyers self-serve, versus low-priced platforms like Microsoft he sees as safe. The stake is a directional negative on Salesforce specifically.$187.80+3.77%›AMZAMZNLONGCapital chases chips while quality mega-caps get left behind like Berkshire in 2000; Amazon is cheap$267.97+4.51%›METMETALONGFounder-led Zuckerberg can make radical AI bets while hired CEOs play not-to-get-fired; Meta left behind—IDEA›SPCSPCXLONGNear-monopoly in low-cost launch with Starlink optionality; underwrite like venture, people/opportunity one-of-one—IDEA›

@All-In Podcast

1mo

OpenAI CFO Sarah Fryer on the All-In Podcast: IPO race, compute scarcity, and the $122B raise

IDEAS · 8

NVDNVDALONGOpenAI's CFO says she is on a vertical wall of demand and cannot find enough compute through 2026-2027, and names Nvidia as the frontier-chip priority partner running her next training run. The buyer who screams she cannot get enough chips is the most direct bullish tell for the supplier she is begging to buy from.$198.03-12.67%›MUMULONGFryer flags memory as the binding constraint in the AI rack supply chain with prices spiking right now. The most liquid US-listed pure-play on rising DRAM and HBM pricing is Micron, so a memory cost spike reads directly as long MU.$809.76-23.84%›AMDAMDLONGOpenAI's CFO confirming AMD chips are live in the pipeline is a concrete demand signal for AMD's data-center accelerators from the single largest AI compute buyer. Among the publicly tradeable names she lists, AMD is the cleanest single long.$485.48-5.16%›ORCORCLLONGOpenAI's 1GW Michigan build sits inside its Oracle complex; Oracle is a top off-take CSP for the buildout$127.63-47.40%›

+4 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

2mo

All-In E275: The Pope's AI Encyclical, Anthropic's "Dr. Frankenstein" Theory, AI Jobs Debate

IDEAS · 14

AAPAAPLLONGJason frames Apple as the underpriced AI winner because on-device, open-weight models running on Apple silicon deliver 'intelligence sovereignty' the cloud labs can't. The non-obvious link is that Apple monetizes the local-inference hardware regardless of which model wins.$303.51-0.75%›LLYLLYLONGChamath counters that the deepest incumbency moat is a regulated drugmaker, since FDA-trial timelines and biologics manufacturing cannot be disrupted by software the way distribution can. 'The regulated pharma company' has no ticker, so the cleanest large-cap expression of that incumbency-moat long is Eli Lilly.$1,130.86+3.72%›ANTANTHROPICSHORTMost-funded lab is also the loudest doomer; regulatory-capture or 'midwife a deity' motive looms over the IPO—IDEA›ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic compounding at 10x vs OpenAI 3x means 90% share in two years if it holds; Claude crushing on product—IDEA›

+10 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

2mo

SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, B…

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

TSLTSLALONGChamath treats a Tesla-into-SpaceX consolidation under one Elon entity as a near-certainty, and unlike privately held SpaceX, Tesla is the only publicly tradeable leg of that merger. A long on TSLA is the routable way to own the upside if the entities combine.$309.37-27.50%›

IDEAS · 9

NVDNVDALONGNVIDIA is gaining share in Western AI datacenter buildout faster than hyperscaler capex growth and faster than Broadcom's custom ASIC business, contradicting the market narrative that TPUs and custom silicon are eating NVIDIA's lunch.$198.03-9.34%›ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic achieving EBIT-positive status at scale with 80%+ gross margins on inference proves the AI profitability debate is settled — the narrative has moved from "will anyone make money?" to "how big does this get?"—IDEA›CRWCRWVLONGDisaggregated inference extending GPU useful life from 2 to 10-15 years unlocks ~6% asset-backed financing (vs 20%+ for short-life assets), structurally improving unit economics for GPU cloud operators like CoreWeave.$71.12-33.96%›USBUSBONDSHORTYen carry trade unwind risk — rising Japan rates forcing dollar-yen carry participants to liquidate long-duration US Treasuries — is a live tail risk that could spike yields and crash bond prices.—IDEA›

+5 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

2mo

Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory …

POSITIONS · 2

AIAll-In Podcast

CRMCRMLONGBenioff is funding one of the largest buybacks in history into a 37% drawdown, a CEO putting balance sheet behind the view that the SaaSpocalypse selloff overshot. Chamath independently calls the high-end monoliths oversold and due to re-rate up.$187.80+6.30%›ANTANTHROPICLONGBenioff stakes that Anthropic's coding-agent bet was the right one while rivals chased video and companions, and is backing it with $300M of his own spend this year. The vntl perp prices Anthropic's implied private valuation directly.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 5

AAPAAPLLONGJason explicitly names Apple as his top AI pick for the next year, thesis being on-device/local models on Apple's hardware footprint plus a potential acquisition (Perplexity/Mistral) giving it a privacy-first AI edge.$303.51+3.54%›WHEWHEATLONGFriedberg forecasts a record super El Nino causing crop failures in Australia, Brazil and India and 'commodity prices spiking all over the world'; wheat is the crop he names directly via the Australia-to-Asia export chain. Chamath confirms commodity desks are already trading this.—IDEA›GOOGOOGLLONGFriedberg argues Google can win the AI assistant layer by wiring Gemini into Gmail, Calendar, Drive and Photos where users' personal data already lives, calling it a formidable, kick-ass product once the flywheel turns.$355.22-9.73%›WILWILL CHINA INVADE TAIWAN BY DECEMBER 31, 2027?SHORTCalling a Taiwan invasion a non-issue is a soft read that the market's invasion odds are too high, which expresses as buying NO on the dated invasion contract. The bet pays as long as no invasion resolves the market YES before the end of 2027.—IDEA›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

2mo

Elon's Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, "FDA for AI" Panic, Trading the AI Boom

POSITIONS · 2

AIAll-In Podcast

MUMULONGBrad discloses memory is a quarter of his book and argues the stocks are cheap (5-7x fully-taxed earnings) against the AI-compute buildout, so they are mispriced to the upside. Micron is the cleanest US-listed pure memory play of the names he lists.$809.76+9.05%›NVDNVDALONGBrad frames Nvidia at 19x earnings as not-a-bubble and says 80%+ of his book sits in compute/AI/memory, an explicit staked long. Chamath separately names 'the Nvidias' as the makers of the new thing that still has to be valued up.$198.03-8.04%›

IDEAS · 7

ANTANTHROPICLONGSacks argues Anthropic is on a clean 10X-a-year exponential that compute deals have now unblocked, so its private valuation only goes one way from here. The pre-IPO synthetic is the one tracked instrument that captures that staked value-up call.—IDEA›TSLTSLALONGChamath stakes that 'Elon world' uniquely commands a valuation premium because it keeps innovating, and predicts a Tesla-SpaceX merger that re-rates the combined asset upward. Tesla is the only publicly tradeable leg of that Elon-premium thesis.$309.37-28.97%›SPCSPCXLONGSacks puts a hard number on the Elon premium: SpaceX IPOs near $2T at 40-50x revenue because no comparable company has its innovation pipeline. The vntl:SPACEX perp tracks exactly that implied private valuation in billions, so a long captures the value-up he is staking.—IDEA›OPEOPENAILONGSacks flags a real catalyst: GPT-5.5 is re-accelerating OpenAI's growth and Codex is taking coding share. That share-take into accelerating growth is what would mark OpenAI's private valuation higher, which the vntl:OPENAI perp tracks.—IDEA›

+3 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

3mo

OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

POSITIONS · 2

AIAll-In Podcast

OPEOPENAILONGIn the week OpenAI missed both user and revenue targets, Chamath stakes the contrarian case that the misses are a power/compute-supply problem, not a demand problem, and OpenAI's valuation is headed to the trillions from its ~$600B secondary mark.—IDEA›ANTANTHROPICLONGOn Hyperliquid the ANTHROPIC perp prices the implied private valuation in billions, so a long is the direct way to express Chamath's call that Anthropic ends up worth multiple trillions. He says it in the same breath as his identical OpenAI call, which was posted as vntl:OPENAI, so the parallel stake routes to the same synthetic-valuation contract.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 5

LLYLLYLONGFreeberg walks through retatrutide's phase 3 data and argues it becomes Lilly's premium upsell above tirzepatide, the high-margin tier where the real money gets made. The stake is on Lilly's earnings power, not just the drug.$1,130.86+15.63%›ORCORCLLONGPower and componentry are the real choke point, and the squeeze re-rates the hyperscalers holding the capacity$127.63-22.31%›CRWCRWDLONGAI cyber capability triggers a one-time hardening upgrade cycle with a line out the door for CrowdStrike$188.89-59.45%›PANPANWLONGNikesh-led Palo Alto rides the same AI-driven cyber hardening wave with overwhelming inbound demand$328.26+84.75%›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

3mo

CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win

IDEAS · 2

GOLGOLDLONGCalifornia billionaire/wealth tax would trigger a tech exodus that hammers the Silicon Valley equity base$4,041.07-12.45%›TSMTSMLONGAI-era HVAC/semiconductor-fab manufacturing buildout is flowing to other states, not California$397.04-0.50%›

@All-In Podcast

3mo

SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike

IDEAS · 5

AAPAAPLLONGNew product-CEO Turnus plus a war chest for bold M&A could revitalize Apple the way Iger's deals did Disney$303.51+9.43%›CRMCRMLONGAt under 10x FCF with Benioff going headless on agents, Salesforce looks like a bargain in the SaaS wreck$187.80+6.82%›FIGFIGSHORTAgents let enterprises spin up bespoke tools, gutting overpriced vertical SaaS at renewal time$24.14-36.66%›CRWCRWDLONGAI-powered hackers have CSOs scrambling, making cyber the white-hot center of the next AI spend wave$188.89-58.42%›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

3mo

OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out

IDEAS · 4

ANTANTHROPICLONGThe panel calls the flippening: Anthropic compounds revenue ~10x a year versus OpenAI's 3-4x off the same ~$30B base, and the lead from enterprise coding usage may become insurmountable. Long the Anthropic implied-valuation perp expresses that the relative re-rating keeps running.—IDEA›OPEOPENAILONGChamath stacks OpenAI's consumer business at $3-4T and its enterprise/refocus path at another $2-3T to argue for a $7-9T eventual cap, an absolute-bullish valuation call. The Ventuals vntl:OPENAI perp prices OpenAI's implied valuation directly, so going long expresses exactly that re-rate rather than a relative race against Anthropic.—IDEA›BEBELONGOn-site nat gas power lets data centers skip multi-year grid waits and get fast clean-air permits$207.01-0.21%›GOOGOOGLLONGHyperscalers own 60% of compute; can throttle frontier labs to buy time to catch up$355.22+5.33%›

@All-In Podcast

3mo

Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence

POSITIONS · 2

AIAll-In Podcast

ANTANTHROPICLONGGerstner walks through Anthropic adding Databricks-plus-Palantir of revenue in a single month and hitting its $30B exit target by March, then stakes a doubling-to-tripling to $80-100B by year end. The implied path is a much higher valuation than the $380B last round.—IDEA›OPEOPENAILONGAgainst the chorus of OpenAI FUD (departures, secondary marks below the last round, the New Yorker rehash), Gerstner makes a present-tense buy call, betting the imminent Spud model and Codex ramp put OpenAI firmly back on the wave.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 6

METMETALONGChamath argues the AI race converges to a compute war that only capital-rich incumbents can win, and he names Meta first. Among the three he listed only Meta and Google are public, and Meta most purely turns the thesis into a buyable equity.$566.28-11.12%›TAOTAOLONGJason is bullish on crypto-incentivized open-source AI and points to subnet 62 / Ridges, which lives on Bittensor. TAO is the network token whose emissions fund that flywheel, making it the liquid proxy for the thesis.$192.97-24.91%›IGVIGVLONGSacks thinks the market is overpunishing enterprise software on AI-disruption fear and that value buys remain. With no single ticker named, the IGV software ETF is the cleanest way to express a basket-level long on the beaten-down group.$92.94+25.93%›NVDNVDALONGHyperscaler CapEx $350B this year heading to $1T by 2030, and AI revenue is finally validating the spend$198.03+10.06%›

+2 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

3mo

Josh Shapiro on Trump, Iran War Chaos, Israel's Failure, the Economy, and 2028 Race

IDEAS · 3

GOLGOLDLONGTrump tariffs are driving sustained consumer inflation; food and ag input prices stay elevated$4,041.07-14.33%›WTIWTILONGIran war spikes oil and keeps gas elevated for years even if conflict ends soon$88.61-5.86%›CYHCYHSHORTTrump war and Medicaid cuts shutter rural hospitals; PA rural healthcare operators face stress$2.77+9.20%›

@All-In Podcast

3mo

The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare

IDEAS · 5

SPCSPCXLONGStevens stakes that Starship full reuse collapses launch cost from $50,000/kg to under $20/kg, a price-performance curve no cost-plus rival can follow. Lower marginal cost compounds into a wider valuation lead, and he separately names SpaceX as the category winner you could not afford to miss.—IDEA›PLTPLTRLONGDecision advantage is the third offset and Palantir's software sits at its center as defense rearms$125.64-14.84%›TSLTSLALONGOnly one US company built at-scale manufacturing muscle this century and it is Tesla$309.37-13.43%›NVDNVDALONGFounder kept R&D off the government leash and rode price-performance, the Nvidia playbook that compounds$198.03+12.02%›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

3mo

SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity

IDEAS · 4

TESTESLA AND SPACEX MERGER OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED BY JUNE 30?LONGChamath put the Tesla-SpaceX merger at 99.999% because a public SpaceX gives Elon a daily mark-to-market that makes combining the two governance-trivial. The market prices a near-term announcement at just 5.7%.—IDEA›TSLTSLALONGSpaceX IPO gives a validated mark, clearing the path to fold it into Tesla, the public vehicle$309.37-13.65%›ARKARKKSHORTOnce SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic go public, AI cannibalizes software moats and tech PEs compress$70.76-4.15%›CFCFLONGHormuz choke + bombed Qatar plant doubled urea to $700; US gas-fed producers win on years-long shortage$125.35-4.52%›

@All-In Podcast

4mo

Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits

IDEAS · 5

NVDNVDALONGJensen stakes that data-center GPU demand structurally exceeds supply with revenue compounding 2B to 50B, implying the AI capex build-out has further to run. The direction is unambiguously bullish on the chips powering it.$198.03+20.86%›METMETALONGJason's view is that cash-rich incumbents weaponize free AI distribution to zero out rivals' subscription revenue. The Google leg duplicates the GOOGL long already on the site, so the non-redundant expression is long Meta, the player he names as next to give AI away for free while monetizing through ads.$566.28+5.47%›MSFMSFTSHORTOpenAI's $20 consumer subs get zeroed when Google/Meta make top models free; OpenAI's biggest partner is exposed$473.92-26.50%›DELDELLLONGDell AI Factory now 4,000+ enterprises and 'running rampant,' with accelerated depreciation juicing buildouts$400.20+137.90%›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

4mo

Bryan Johnson: I Just Took the Most Powerful Dose of DMT in the World... Here's What It Was Like

IDEAS · 1

LLYLLYLONGGLP-1 drugs were the first mass longevity/abundance shift; the category keeps compounding$1,130.86+20.90%›

@All-In Podcast

4mo

Four CEOs on the Future of AI: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, and IREN

POSITIONS · 3

AIAll-In Podcast

CRWCRWVLONGIntrator directly fades the GPU-depreciation short by naming traders shorting CRWV and asserting his A100s appreciated this year while clients sign five-year contracts. He is taking the long side of the exact debate Michael Burry built his CoreWeave short around.$71.12-13.54%›IREIRENLONGRoberts stakes that AI compute demand is at the extreme end of the spectrum with zero idle GPUs, framing the $9.7B Microsoft deal as only 5% of IREN's 4.5GW capacity. The constraint he names is time-to-build, not demand, which is a bullish stake on monetizing locked-up power.$36.98-10.70%›GOOGOOGLLONGCalacanis recounts a public bet that he bought a lot of Google on the view that it was behind only because it was too precious to ship, and that pressure to release more would close the gap. The catalyst he cites is Sergey pushing the team to release the good stuff.$355.22+18.28%›

IDEAS · 8

NVDNVDALONGRoberts argues that amid a flood of custom AI silicon looking for sockets, Nvidia's incubated CUDA ecosystem and de facto standards make it the lowest-risk way to build at scale. That is a direct bull case for Nvidia's moat, which the equity is the cleanest way to own.$198.03+11.00%›MUMULONGIntrator says memory is the binding constraint on AI compute: demand is through the roof while fab capacity that should have been built in 2023 never arrived. Tight DRAM supply against surging demand is the pricing-power setup that flows straight to a pure-play memory maker like Micron.$809.76+96.47%›DELDELLLONGCalacanis names the new Dell-Nvidia AI workstation specifically and argues the $10k local rig pays for itself by cutting cloud-model bills while adding privacy. That is a demand call on the desktop AI category Dell is shipping, expressed through DELL stock.$400.20+139.67%›ANTANTHROPICLONGOpus 4.5 was the inflection point for agentic orchestration; Claude Code seeded the whole sandbox paradigm—IDEA›

+4 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

4mo

Jensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

NVDNVDALONGJensen rejects the consensus model that has NVIDIA growth decelerating to 30%, then 20%, then 7% by 2029, arguing analysts cannot see that AI extends far beyond the top five hyperscalers. The buy thesis is that street estimates are anchored to law-of-large-numbers orthodoxy that NVIDIA's actual order book will break.$198.03+8.68%›

IDEAS · 16

OPEOPENAILONGJensen, whose chips power the entire frontier-model buildout, singles out OpenAI as the category leader headed for enormous scale. The cleanest way to express that named view on-venue is the OpenAI private-valuation perp, which prices the implied company valuation rather than a public equity.—IDEA›TAOTAOLONGBrad points to Bittensor's subnet-3 distributed training run as proof that decentralized training is real, which is the core bull thesis for TAO, the network's token. The directional read is long: validating the technology raises the network's credibility and demand for TAO.$192.97-22.69%›ANTANTHROPICLONGJensen says Dario's trillion-by-2030 is conservative; every enterprise app becomes an Anthropic reseller—IDEA›AMZAMZNLONGAWS just committed to a million Nvidia chips on top of its own Trainium/Inferentia buildout$267.97+27.48%›

+12 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

4mo

John Fetterman: 'I'm the Only Democrat in Congress Saying This'

IDEAS · 2

WTIWTILONGUS strikes have neutered Iran's regime; the Strait of Hormuz reopening is a global oil catalyst$88.61-7.10%›NVDNVDALONGSanders' AI data-center moratorium would hand the AI race to China; bullish US AI buildout instead$198.03+8.11%›

@All-In Podcast

4mo

Travis Kalanick & Michael Dell Live from Austin, Texas

POSITIONS · 2

AIAll-In Podcast

DELDELLLONGDell quantifies AI-server revenue ramping 2B to 10B to 25B to ~50B with demand outstripping supply across 4,000 enterprise AI-factory customers plus sovereign and hyperscaler buyers. The stake is that the AI-infrastructure backlog keeps compounding Dell's revenue.$400.20+161.22%›METMETALONGSacks reads Meta's recent AI stumble as temporary because its ad-driven cash machine bankrolls a buildout rivals cannot match. The non-obvious link is that the bull case is about balance-sheet endurance, not current model quality.$566.28-10.12%›

IDEAS · 5

ANTANTHROPICLONGSacks concedes Anthropic owns the best coding assistant and a lucrative enterprise lane even while disliking their strategy, and the open quote that Anthropic is beating OpenAI in enterprise revenue frames the same direction. The bet is on enterprise stickiness translating to a rising private valuation.—IDEA›OPEOPENAISHORTJason explicitly stakes a fade: OpenAI is at peak, share is bleeding to Google, Grok, Claude and Meta, and the world takes two-thirds of the market. He even names the trade as betting against OpenAI versus the field.—IDEA›NVDNVDALONGAt the silicon layer the die is cast; multi-horse model race means everyone keeps buying Blackwells$198.03+10.75%›XAIXAILONGFastest cluster scaling plus X data integration sets up Grok 5 on the largest Blackwell cluster$0.01-44.97%›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

4mo

Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare

POSITIONS · 2

AIAll-In Podcast

ANTANTHROPICLONGGerstner picks Anthropic at a $380B mark over OpenAI at $840B and says he keeps adding, framing the $6B February revenue month as proof the model is augmenting labor budgets rather than IT budgets. He expects both names to IPO in 2026, which converts the private mark into a tradeable equity.—IDEA›OPEOPENAILONGGerstner frames OpenAI as the sibling long to his Anthropic position, both riding AI momentum into expected 2026 IPOs. The vntl:OPENAI perp lets you take that valuation-momentum view directly without waiting for the listing.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 3

WTIWTISHORTChamath reads the reflexive oil drop on Trump's comments as the sharps pricing a short war, and points to a coordinated ~400M-barrel IEA release plus another ~1B in strategic reserves to cap any spike. The staked direction is that the war-premium in crude unwinds rather than persists.$88.61+9.26%›US US X IRAN PERMANENT PEACE DEAL BY DECEMBER 31, 2026?LONGGerstner stakes that the Trump doctrine is pragmatic not Neocon, so the US declares victory and exits rather than escalating to a quagmire. That is a direct bet against the prolonged-conflict scenario and toward a negotiated de-escalation within the year.—IDEA›WILWILL THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONTROL THE SENATE AFTER THE 2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONS?LONGThe Senate is the decisive chamber of a 'clean sweep' (the House already prices ~82% Democratic), and the Senate-control market sits at exactly the 45% Jason cites. So his sweep call maps cleanly to YES on Democratic Senate control.—IDEA›

@All-In Podcast

4mo

"This is Bibi's War" - Harvard's Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War

IDEAS · 4

WILWILL CHINA INVADE TAIWAN BY END OF 2026?SHORTAllison stakes a low-probability NO on a near-term Taiwan invasion, explicitly pegging himself to where prediction markets sit, so the trade is to sell the fear premium rather than buy the invasion. His reasons are structural: Beijing believes peaceful reunification is trending its way and Trump is the most accommodating US president it will see.—IDEA›WILWILL CHINA INVADE TAIWAN BY DECEMBER 31, 2027?SHORTAllison's point is that Beijing expects a KMT win in Jan 2028 to soften cross-strait relations, which removes the trigger for forcing the issue by force. A more China-sympathetic Taipei makes a near-term invasion less necessary, so the executable expression is NO on China invading Taiwan.—IDEA›TSMTSMLONG96% of advanced chips come from one island and the world is structurally dependent on TSMC$397.04+23.37%›NVDNVDALONGChina's faster adoption of new tech and Jensen's future framing point to deep AI compute demand$198.03+13.18%›

@All-In Podcast

4mo

Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi: Transition Plan and the Fight for Iran's Freedom

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

QBTQBTSLONGPishevar name-drops the one publicly traded quantum-computing pure play he personally took public, and the bullish lean is in framing its tech as humanity-accelerating rather than a price target. The only clean way to express that lean is the SPAC entity itself, which trades as QBTS.$18.01-4.53%›

IDEAS · 1

IRAIRAN LEADERSHIP CHANGE BY DECEMBER 31?LONGPishevar stakes that the Iranian regime is mid-collapse and Mojtaba Khamenei's grip ends, the faithful read being YES on a leadership-change market. The book-talking is total: he is a paid advisor to the transition plan, so his confidence is self-interested.—IDEA›

@All-In Podcast

4mo

War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

ANTANTHROPICLONGChamath argues Anthropic's last mark understates it versus OpenAI on both revenue ramp and product pull, with co-work adoption as the live demand signal. A panelist on the same thread put fair value at 1.5 trillion, far above the 350 billion mark.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 5

GOOGOOGLLONGChamath's bull case is distribution plus owned infrastructure: Google can clone the agentic co-work product into G Suite within a quarter and, because it runs its own cloud, undercut Anthropic on margin. Almost on cue in the episode Google announced Workspace agent integration with 40 skills.$355.22+16.05%›WILWILL CHINA INVADE TAIWAN BY END OF 2026?SHORTChamath lays out why a cornered China would rationally invade, but his net argument is the opposite: the oil and sanctions squeeze on Iran, Venezuela and Russia 'hems in' China and deters the war, which 'secures global safety.' His staked direction is therefore that an invasion does NOT happen, the NO side of the market.—IDEA›FXIFXISHORTLowest GDP target in 30yrs plus Iran/Venezuela/Russia oil supply cut hems China in$36.95-4.85%›PLTPLTRLONGPalantir is the trusted prime serving DoD models; Anthropic exit deepens its lock-in$125.64-16.23%›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

5mo

Ray Dalio: "AI Is Eating Everything - and It Might Eat Itself"

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

GOLGOLDLONGDalio frames gold as the only money that can't be printed and isn't a promise from someone else, which is why central banks keep accumulating it. His 5-15% floor for someone with no view is itself a directional stake that gold belongs in every portfolio.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 4

USBUSBONDSHORTDalio describes a long-bond supply glut ($9T rollover plus $2T new issuance) hitting fewer foreign buyers who are rotating into gold, the classic late-cycle setup where long yields rise and long-bond prices fall. Shorting the long end of the curve is the direct expression.—IDEA›BTCBTCSHORTDalio rejects the digital-gold thesis: Bitcoin lacks privacy, central banks won't hold it, and it trades like a high-beta tech stock rather than a safe haven, so it loses the money race to gold. The stake is that Bitcoin keeps underperforming gold and behaving as a risk asset.$62,973.50+5.79%›WILWILL THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONTROL THE HOUSE AFTER THE 2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONS?LONGDalio's offhand 'probably the Democrats will take the house' is a direct read on House control, which Polymarket prices as a clean binary. The YES side is the literal expression of his guess.—IDEA›XYZXYZ100SHORTAI is eating everything and might eat itself: companies fail even as the tech wins, plus free Chinese open-source$27,875.38-12.80%›

@All-In Podcast

5mo

Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot

IDEAS · 6

WILWILL THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONTROL THE HOUSE AFTER THE 2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONS?LONGJason stakes a clean directional call that Trump's party loses control in November, which maps to Democrats flipping the House. The market already prices this near-certain at 80c, so the edge is in the few points of remaining gap rather than the direction.—IDEA›CRMCRMSHORTSacks expects Salesforce to survive but sees AI compressing its growth and possibly breaking the per-seat pricing model, which is a mild bearish lean on the growth multiple rather than a solvency short. The link is that a slower-growth, AI-pressured CRM should trade at a lower forward multiple even if revenue holds.$187.80+3.66%›AI AI BUBBLE BURST IN 2026?SHORTSacks explicitly fades the AI-doom narrative ('I actually don't believe in the Citrini or the Doomer take'), which maps cleanly to NO on a market that pays out if the AI sector busts. The non-obvious step is routing his named-but-unsurfaced Citrini market to the closest faithful, liquid proxy: the broad 'AI bubble burst in 2026?' contract.—IDEA›USBUSBONDLONGNobody knows if AI cash flows survive, so 5% risk-free govt bonds beat paying up for equity risk.—IDEA›

+2 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

5mo

Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV

IDEAS · 6

GOLGOLDLONGChamath frames gold as the direct hedge against governments addicted to spending and currencies that on a relative basis fall off a cliff. The instrument is the trade because his whole debt-to-GDP argument resolves to owning durable real assets.$4,041.07-20.75%›PAXPAXGLONGDebt-to-GDP grinds toward 200-600% across all countries, currencies erode, gold re-rates as the durable-asset hedge$4,044.85-18.08%›SP5SP500LONGNew Golden Age call: 5%+ GDP, $600B hyperscaler CAPEX is a 2% GDP tailwind, market is blackpilling the boom$7,360.71+7.16%›USBUSBONDSHORTDebt death spiral plus a balance-sheet-tightening Fed pushes long yields higher, TLT lower—IDEA›

+2 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

5mo

Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

SPCSPCXLONGGerstner stakes that the SpaceX-xAI combination, merging the two biggest TAMs of AI and space, draws overwhelming retail and institutional demand into the IPO. He misspeaks 'against' and is corrected on-air to 'bet with that vision,' counting himself among the buyers.—IDEA›

IDEAS · 7

CRMCRMSHORTGerstner's call is not that Salesforce dies but that its valuation re-rates permanently lower as the agentic layer captures the profit pool the app layer used to own. The stake is on the multiple, roughly halving from 30x to 17x free cash flow, not on revenue collapsing.$187.80+2.71%›AMZAMZNLONGCalacanis frames Amazon as the prime beneficiary of agentic consolidation: a giant labor-heavy operation where one worker now does three or four jobs, so margins expand without proportional headcount. He explicitly names it his top pick, not a passing example.$267.97+30.78%›WILWILL 2 FED RATE CUTS HAPPEN IN 2026?LONGThe market prices Warsh as a hawk: 'no cuts in 2026' sits at ~67c and one cut at ~18c. Gerstner argues anchored sub-consensus inflation plus an above-neutral restrictive rate means Warsh cuts more than the tape fears, so he takes the over on cut count.—IDEA›SNOSNOWLONGThe counter-leg to Gerstner's app-layer short: data-platform companies reaccelerate because every agentic tool depends on the data and transformation that lives in their platforms, not in a thin layer on a CRUD database. Snowflake is the cleanest public name he stakes.$293.65+76.95%›

+3 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

6mo

ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

TSLTSLALONGFriedberg treats Tesla killing its flagship car lines to build Optimus not as a loss but as the company trading a saturated EV business for a humanoid-robot labor market measured in the trillions. The bull case is that the same FSD experience that converted his whole family now ships in physical form.$309.37-26.20%›

IDEAS · 2

GOLGOLDLONGFriedberg's whole de-dollarization framework treats gold as the structural escape valve from a money supply that only ever expands. He measures the stock market in ounces of gold to argue equities are actually down, making gold the asset he trusts over dollars.$4,041.07-16.36%›GOOGOOGLLONGSacks reframes the Clawd/Malt Bot mania as proof the AI form factor is shifting from chatbot to data-connected agent, and argues whoever already holds your email and calendar wins by default. That points squarely at Google, not a startup.$355.22+7.55%›

@All-In Podcast

6mo

The Future of Everything: What CEOs of Circle, CrowdStrike & More See Coming in 2026

POSITIONS · 3

AIAll-In Podcast

CRCCRCLLONGAllaire frames falling rates as the catalyst that expands USDC circulation rather than shrinking Circle's float income, citing an inverse correlation where a 35-40% rate decline drove a multi-hundred-percent rise in USDC. Cuts ahead become a top-line tailwind, not a threat.$63.91-9.06%›CRWCRWDLONGKurtz argues the AI agent explosion creates a new security surface CrowdStrike monetizes via AI Detection and Response, sizing it at ~90 agents per employee needing endpoint-style protection. The same agentic wave driving the AI trade becomes CRWD's expansion vector.$188.89-58.21%›ACHACHRLONGGoldstein ties Archer's valuation re-rating directly to hitting 2026 operational milestones: five DOT cities announced in Q1, summer flights, then certification, with Reddit retail liquidity letting institutions keep stepping the valuation up. The catalyst path is the trade.$4.67-46.26%›

IDEAS · 8

NVDNVDALONGLockmiller runs Crusoe, a private AI cloud, so he sees demand from the inside, and he says no lab or app company can get enough compute. The cleanest liquid way to express a structural chip shortage is long the company that makes the chip everyone is short of.$198.03+5.22%›GEVGEVLONGLockmiller names gas turbines as the bottleneck for powering AI data centers and lists GE Vernova first among the few producers. When a critical input is supply-constrained, the constrained supplier captures the scarcity rent, which is a long on GEV.$973.63+46.78%›COICOINLONGGenius Act level playing field plus accelerating USDC network effects pull the whole regulated crypto rail up$144.59-34.52%›BTCBTCLONGFalling rates lower the opportunity cost of holding crypto dollars, which historically drove stablecoin circulation and crypto velocity up$62,973.50-29.46%›

+4 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

6mo

Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos

IDEAS · 6

LLYLLYLONGOz frames the TrumpRX price cut as a volume detonator that pushes GLP-1s from the vain Upper East Side into Medicare ($50 copay), free Medicaid, and rural America, the exact populations where obesity actually lives. Lilly's just-approved oral pill Foundayo is the form factor he says leapfrogs the injection and lets the market scale.$1,130.86+4.75%›NVONVOLONGTrump RX puts Novo's GLP-1s at $200 cash, $0 for Medicaid, opening the underserved obesity market$47.05-22.90%›IHIIHILONGFraud moratorium on durable medical equipment providers culls fraudulent supply, favoring legit makers$51.86-15.27%›OPEOPENAILONGConsumers dumping blood panels into ChatGPT for diagnosis: AI becomes the default health front door—IDEA›

+2 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

6mo

Coinbase CEO Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos

IDEAS · 12

MUMULONGFeldman frames the memory squeeze as a structural 18-month supply digestion where prices stay high, and as a buyer of memory he is calling against his own cost base. Micron is the cleanest listed pure-play on DRAM and HBM pricing.$809.76+98.48%›TSLTSLALONGCalacanis stakes a timing view that mass self-driving arrives within roughly six years, drawing on his front-row Uber experience, and Tesla is the single instrument he gestures at via Optimus and Robotaxi.$309.37-31.67%›COICOINLONGArmstrong names the three trends he is building Coinbase around (all assets on-chain, prediction markets, stablecoin payments), and Coinbase is the one listed pure-play that monetizes every one of those rails. The non-obvious link is that these are not generic crypto trends but Coinbase's own 2026 roadmap, so betting the trends is mechanically a long COIN bet.$144.59-33.61%›CRCCRCLLONGGenius Act locks in USDC as the compliant winner as Tether scrambles to clean up; regulated stablecoins compound$63.91-9.25%›

+8 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

6mo

Inside America's AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition

IDEAS · 7

NVDNVDALONGSacks rejects the dot-com fiber-bubble analogy by arguing every deployed GPU is already in use generating tokens, so compute demand and the buildout keep compounding. The cleanest executable expression of that no-overhang compute-demand call is the GPU maker itself.$198.03+9.47%›ANTANTHROPICLONGSacks singles out Anthropic's Opus 4.5 and Claude Code as the breakout product everyone is going crazy over and projects it becomes the personal digital assistant in 2026, a named bet that Anthropic specifically is on the leading edge.—IDEA›ORCORCLLONGSacks holds up Oracle's data-center buildout as smart, deep-pocketed money that sees real ROI, which is a soft bullish endorsement of the company doing the spending. Among the names he cites, Oracle is the one with a tradeable equity perp on Hyperliquid, so the AI-capex conviction routes to long ORCL.$127.63-28.38%›MSFMSFTLONGBehind-the-meter power deregulation lets hyperscalers self-generate, de-risking the data-center buildout politically$473.92+3.79%›

+3 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

6mo

Satya Nadella on AI's Business Revolution: What Happens to SaaS, OpenAI, and Microsoft?

IDEAS · 3

MSFMSFTLONGNadella stakes that Azure's addressable market expands massively as every firm builds AI agents and rents compute, with Microsoft owning the token factory plus the app server layer. The non-obvious link is he is faithful to model commoditization while still bullish Microsoft because value accrues to the infra and orchestration layer he controls, not the model.$473.92+5.94%›NVDNVDALONGA sitting hyperscaler CEO naming the DGX card as the engine of a revived high-end workstation is a bullish read on NVIDIA pushing datacenter-class silicon down to the desktop. The non-obvious link: Nadella is talking up his own Windows PC platform, but the hardware he reaches for to make local models real is NVIDIA's, so the demand he describes accrues to NVDA's new personal-AI-supercomputer line.$198.03+9.89%›DELDELLLONGThe workstation is back: local LLMs on DGX-class PCs revive high-end desktop hardware demand$400.20+249.83%›

@All-In Podcast

6mo

Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

XLUXLUSHORTChamath argues that if a tax-equity fund puts solar plus storage on tens of millions of homes, residential load leaves the grid and utility rate bases collapse, stranding their CapEx and bond obligations. He names utilities outright as the biggest short he sees.$45.25-3.79%›

IDEAS · 6

IRAIRAN LEADERSHIP CHANGE BY DECEMBER 31?LONGFreeberg anchors to the regime-change polymarkets on screen and stakes that sanctions-driven economic collapse make a break in Iran inevitable. The live equivalent of the 'regime fall before 2027' market he cited is the Iran leadership change by Dec 31 contract.—IDEA›WILWILL THE US ACQUIRE PART OF GREENLAND IN 2026?LONGSacks directly fades the on-screen 17% Greenland market, saying Trump's odds of pulling off an acquisition are much higher given Arctic shipping-lane and resource value. The live market is the US-acquire-Greenland-in-2026 contract.—IDEA›AMDAMDLONGOpenAI's multi-vendor inference push lands huge deals at AMD as it diversifies off Nvidia$485.48+105.57%›NVDNVDALONGA renaissance in silicon and relentless compute demand keep OpenAI's huge Nvidia deals flowing$198.03+7.48%›

+2 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

6mo

Supercharging a New FDA: Marty Makary on Science, Power & Patients

IDEAS · 6

CRSCRSPLONGNew FDA priority voucher pilot lets criteria-meeting drugs clear in weeks; first-mover gene/cell therapy names rerate$47.18-11.75%›ABBABBVSHORTFDA slashes biosimilar approval from 5-8yrs to 2.5yrs, opening floodgates that erode branded biologic pricing$256.23-17.42%›LLYLLYSHORTMost-favored-nation pricing forces US GLP-1 prices from $1,300 to ~$149, compressing pharma margins on blockbusters$1,130.86-10.36%›NVONVOLONGGLP-1 incretin mimetics expand across 60 indications and toward majority adoption, sustaining huge demand growth$47.05-19.06%›

+2 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

6mo

Why AI will dwarf every tech revolution before it: robots, manufacturing, AR glasses from CES 2026

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

ANTANTHROPICLONGAnthropic compounding 10x on revenue makes $60B entry the cheapest deal of the year as it heads to trillions—IDEA›

IDEAS · 5

BYDBYDDYLONGChina BYD floods global auto with cheap capable cars; US wins only if it solves AI-driven low-cost manufacturing$11.71-7.44%›TSLTSLALONGTesla Optimus will dwarf the car business and become the most transformative product ever$309.37-29.07%›TSLTSLASHORTRobotics adoption will be slower than expected; no API-like hardware layer to diffuse models fast$309.37+29.07%›BXBXLONGRo and GLP-1 longevity demand drives a consumer healthcare wave of preventive products$128.14-19.34%›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

6mo

Adam Carolla on California's Collapse: Fires, Failed Leadership, and Gyno-Fascism

IDEAS · 4

TSLTSLALONGBusiness and HNW exodus from CA/WA tax regimes flows to Texas, where Musk relocated Tesla and SpaceX$309.37-31.41%›AMZAMZNLONGWashington's 15% payroll tax on $125k+ earners pushes Amazon to threaten relocation, easing cost burden$267.97+10.82%›DJTDJTLONGTrump economic agenda kicks in next year, fueling a 2028 GOP win and continuity of the Trump brand$9.87-30.61%›WTIWTISHORTTrump policy drives fuel prices down in the new year as drilling and supply ramp$88.61-47.35%›

@All-In Podcast

6mo

All-In's 2026 Predictions

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

AMZAMZNLONGJason explicitly says he is placing a bet on Amazon for 2026, citing robot deployment flattening headcount plus same-day delivery density. His co-hosts agreed he will likely be right, even if via AWS free cash flow rather than his robot reasoning.$267.97+9.03%›

IDEAS · 14

COPCOPPERLONGChamath frames copper as the bottleneck metal for data centers, chips and weapons systems under a unilateral national-security regime, with structural supply falling far short of demand. He doubled down later by naming a basket of critical metals as his best-performing asset of 2026.$6.52+11.20%›WTIWTISHORTChamath argues electrification and energy storage are structurally shrinking the surface area where oil is useful, a slow melt lower rather than a crash. He explicitly puts a number on it: oil more likely to hit $45 than $65 per barrel.$88.61-53.10%›TESTESLA AND SPACEX MERGER OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED BY JUNE 30?SHORTChamath's contrarian call is that there is no SpaceX IPO and instead a reverse merger into Tesla. The cleanest tradeable proxy is the Polymarket on whether a merger is officially announced, currently a near-0 longshot the merger thesis would need to flip.—IDEA›SP5SP500LONGSacks stakes a broad equities-up call: the Trump boom with rate cuts, tax refunds and ~5% GDP keeps the S&P making record highs through 2026. The S&P perp is the cleanest single instrument for that index-level conviction.$7,360.71+5.67%›

+10 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

6mo

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

IDEAS · 12

TSMTSMLONGTSMC's US fab hitting China-level 4nm yields plus a $165B+ expansion makes it America's onshore chip backbone.$397.04+25.67%›NVDNVDALONGNVIDIA gets China revenue back via H200 export licenses; the 25% tariff is a throwaway, so volume upside is real.$198.03+9.74%›INTINTCLONGUS government owns 10% of Intel and is steering CHIPS money to it; equity backstop limits downside.$88.59+113.35%›BABALONGBoeing rides every trade deal as forced jet purchases get bundled into bilateral agreements.$217.53-6.17%›

+8 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

7mo

All-In x Kill Tony: A Hilarious Holiday Special

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

TKOTKOLONGTony stakes the one stock he has ever personally recommended: TKO, the UFC plus WWE parent, on the simple thesis that Dana White and WWE keep putting on bigger shows and the business is 'always growing.' He confirms he held it for 'wild, wild, wild success.'$182.53-16.71%›

IDEAS · 8

AAPAAPLSHORTJason stakes Apple as the year's biggest business loser: unlimited capital and distribution wasted on a thinner iPhone, the company innovating itself into a corner while rivals run the AI race. He extends the dig to its best recent output being a streaming show.$303.51-13.65%›WBDWBDLONGM&A is pricing WBD content at 3x recent trading: undermanaged library finally getting valued$26.32-10.12%›VMCVMCLONGAI data-center boom is a physical buildout: trades wages up 25-30%, not just chip names$270.73-8.68%›BTCBTCLONGFrom war on crypto to passed legislation and a fair shake; total regulatory regime flip$62,973.50-28.13%›

+4 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

7mo

Scott Bessent: Fixing the Fed, Tariffs for National Security, Solving Affordability in 2026

IDEAS · 5

SUPSUPREME COURT RULES IN FAVOR OF TRUMP'S TARIFFS?LONGBessent reads Barrett as hunting for a reason not to undo the tariffs and calls IEEPA authority no stretch, which is a clean YES on the Polymarket question that resolves YES only if SCOTUS reverses the Federal Circuit and preserves the tariffs. The market is the only instrument that resolves directly on the ruling he is forecasting.—IDEA›BABALONGTrade deals plus full expensing are driving Boeing to expand Dreamliner output 50%$217.53+1.04%›IATIATLONGTreasury is actively loosening regulation to unleash small and community bank lending$62.87+13.71%›TSMTSMLONGTreasury names chips a top national security industry and is taking equity stakes to reshore production$397.04+37.99%›

+1 more ideas →

@All-In Podcast

7mo

Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?

IDEAS · 4

SP5SP500LONGOff the 2.7% CPI beat that sent the market rallying that day, Sacks stakes a full-throated macro bull case: inflation rolling over, rates falling, tax cuts kicking in, and a 2% AI capex tailwind to GDP. The cleanest single expression of that gangbusters-2026 view is long broad US equities.$7,360.71+8.33%›USBUSBONDLONGInflation rolling over + $600B smaller deficit point to falling rates into 2026—IDEA›XHBXHBLONGFalling mortgage costs into a 2026 golden age set up homebuilders to re-rate$105.30+0.62%›UBEUBERLONGBuying a data-labeling firm to repurpose drivers shows Uber adapting to AV transition$71.55-9.65%›

@All-In Podcast

7mo

Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes

POSITIONS · 1

AIAll-In Podcast

GOLGOLDLONGTucker frames physical gold as his core hold against monetary and societal instability, a long-standing position he doubled down on by launching a gold business this episode. The clean way to track that conviction is the gold spot perp rather than coins buried in a yard.$4,041.07-7.86%›

IDEAS · 3

PSKPSKYLONGParamount's $108B all-cash bid for the whole of Warner beats Netflix and clears antitrust easier$7.83-43.65%›DISDISSHORTKids tuning out Marvel and Star Wars for UGC means legacy-IP libraries erode faster than the market thinks$96.07+15.66%›GOOGOOGLLONGWaymo already taking a third of SF and LA rides signals autonomous ride-share scaling fast$355.22+12.70%›

@All-In Podcast

7mo

OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?

IDEAS · 10

OPEOPENAISHORTJason calls this peak OpenAI and stakes that share goes from roughly two-thirds today to about a third as Google, xAI, Anthropic and Meta split the market and bad blood from Sam Altman's deals invites everyone to attack him. The clean expression of his pair trade is shorting the OpenAI valuation, with the long-the-rest leg as context.—IDEA›NVDNVDALONGChamath argues the only AI layer where the winners are already decided is silicon, and Nvidia heads his short list. That makes the AI-buildout long that has actually resolved a bet on Nvidia equity rather than on the still-contested model layer.$198.03+7.09%›WILWILL GROK AI BEAT T1 IN 2026?LONGSacks's bullish operational case for xAI is that it scales the fastest and Grok 5 trained on the largest Blackwell cluster will lead. With no xAI valuation perp available, the only xAI/Grok-specific tradeable instrument is this Polymarket on Grok's competitive standing, where his lean reads as a YES on Grok prevailing.—IDEA›ANTANTHROPICLONGThe pair trade is ChatGPT vs the world; Anthropic owns enterprise coding as OpenAI cedes two-thirds of the market—IDEA›

+6 more ideas →