US AI safety limits push enterprises to Chinese open-source models, led by Alibaba's Qwen
Power is the binding constraint on AI; a gigawatt of capacity now costs ~$100B, up 20x, so power producers win
The larger a company already is, the higher its odds of multiplying again, so own the largest tech mega-caps
Inflation and out-of-control spending push overnight rates north of 5.5-6% under a Warsh Fed
If China's oil reserves run dry and it buys 3M extra barrels a day on the spot market, crude spikes to $150-200