“amassing piles of hardware in data centers is going to converge towards the returns of like a real estate landlord business … I wouldn't be long CoreWeave…”
Avoid CoreWeave, a chip landlord whose hardware depreciates fast and converges to commodity real-estate returns
“the revenues from all these companies are basically gonna get back in and reinvested in the mega caps that can actually create them internally.”
Mega-cap tech absorbs SaaS revenues as companies build in-house, the best trade right now: long the giants
“the amount of money that is spent on Slack and Adobe and Salesforce, like the companies that can cut these people out now because of AI … a lot of these…”
Short Adobe, a SaaS provider that enterprises will cut as in-house AI tools replace it
“the companies that can cut these people out now because of AI … they're gonna save, there's gonna be tremendous savings.”
Short Atlassian, a SaaS vendor losing ground as AI lets enterprises build internally
“If you don't think that there's anything to reverse that trend, these are phenomenal shorts.”
Short the SaaS service providers, AI lets clients build in-house and their real revenues will fall
“you buy the mega caps, you short everything else”
Buy Microsoft, an integrated hyperscaler whose owned compute carries optionality and benefits from SaaS collapse
“you buy the mega caps, you short everything else”
Buy Amazon and Microsoft, vertically integrated hyperscalers that should own infrastructure and capture SaaS savings
“it's easier to short them because they actually have revenues that you can look at … If you don't think that there's anything to reverse that trend…”
Short Intuit, a SaaS vendor with visible revenues vulnerable to AI in-house replacement
“you have things like Morpho and things like Uniswap that are getting bought up by large institutions right now”
Wall Street is buying DeFi governance tokens outright; fresh institutional bids reprice relatively thin UNI higher.
“my favorite, Aerodrome... I think it's got a lot of upside from here. It's just the question is like…”
Long Aerodrome, a real-revenue builder with upside being dragged down by the broad bear
“in these violent bear markets, you get squeezes … you can make some money”
Short WIF, a useless meme coin that squeezes then bleeds in a violent bear market
“There are huge trades here, short garbage against being long good stuff, short Coinbase, long Hyperliquid”
Long Hyperliquid against short Coinbase, real revenue and converging volumes versus an imploding incumbent
“short garbage against being long good stuff, short Coinbase, long Hyperliquid”
Short Coinbase, the imploding incumbent to pair against real-revenue crypto builders
“animal spirits always return. They always return. And all you need in order to get a massive, massive…”
Animal spirits always return, depressed alt valuations set up violent 5-10x rallies
“prediction markets are the new shitcoins … a lot of attention and gambling money has just shifted to other sources of, of sugar rush online.”
Prediction markets pull retail gambling flow from crypto, and Robinhood owns the retail on-ramp and fees.
“my take is that there is value at like $60,000 to $64,000 per BTC, and that's where I would look at accumulating long-term.”
BTC value is at 60-64k, accumulate there long-term, no narrative to go up until liquidity returns